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Don't Look at Stock Markets. Look at the Ports.

edited May 5 in Other Investing
An article from The Atlantic, courtesy of yahoo. Dinky linky. The headline is theirs.
The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest in the Western Hemisphere, processes about 17 percent of everything the United States imports or exports in shipping containers. The adjoining Port of Long Beach accounts for another 14 percent. Over the years, a whole ecosystem has arisen to support the loading and unloading of the cars, clothes, electronic gadgets, and other things that people want. There are workers and warehouses, trucks and loading pads, security structures and rail lines.

Seroka estimated that cargo arrivals would soon be down 35 percent over the same time last year. At the moment, the drop in traffic seems likelier to accelerate than to reverse. The number of cargo ships canceling port calls or entire voyages is on the rise. A number of shipments now under way were instigated before Trump’s so-called Liberation Day tariff announcement, on April 2. According to Forto, a cargo-management and -tracking company, reservations for shipping products must normally be placed two weeks before a cargo vessel launches. The trip from China from California typically takes two or more additional weeks. In other words, the full effects of U.S. tariff policies on maritime traffic may not be apparent for some time.

/snip

Tariffs don’t just reduce the flow of goods coming into the country; they also cause an atrophying of the logistics system that moves products into, out of, and around the United States. “Less cargo volume, less jobs. That’s the rule here,” Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, said recently, describing how one in nine jobs in the greater Los Angeles region arises directly or indirectly from its ports. “Port complexes are like your baby toe on your foot,” Peter Neffenger, the former commander of the Coast Guard sector that includes Los Angeles and Long Beach, told me. “You don’t think about it until you break it one day and realize, ‘I can’t walk.’”

Like the shipping business into and out of Los Angeles, the nationwide trucking industry is slowing down, because drivers have a lot less cargo to move. Without inventory arriving or en route, small businesses will falter; bigger industries will shrink; shelves will be empty.
Looks like a big, fat, punch in the mouth to commerce. I would expect similar drops in traffic at all the West Coast ports, with similar knock-on effects. Container ships that arrive to LA/LB often work their way up the coast before heading back to Asia from Seattle/Tacoma.

More at the link.

Comments

  • We will run short out of supplies and their prices will rise. Good luck to onshore commodity products to be manufactured in US with high labor cost. Building factories and establishing supply chains take time.

    Before his passing Steve Jobs said that iPhones cannot be made in US profitably for the same reasons.
  • Still whistling past the graveyard. Markets remain unfazed.

    I would expect to see more empty shelves within retail stores. Smaller retail stores might not survive this.

    But hey, you just buy 2 dolls instead of 30...right?

  • And dont forget: “They don’t need to have 250 pencils. They can have five.”
  • Liner traffic from Asia typically calls at LA/LB first because it is a day closer to Chicago. So what isn't happening in LA is being exported east.

    Bought some extra TP at Walmart today. Read somewhere that GOP staffers in DC are stocking up.
  • Here we go again just like the time during COVID. There were limit on TP per customer at the checkout stands. Wonder how Walmart and Costco handle this differently now ?
  • Sven said:

    Here we go again just like the time during COVID. There were limit on TP per customer at the checkout stands. Wonder how Walmart and Costco handle this differently now ?

    It would be pretty funny if all Americans remember about Trump 20 years from now is toilet paper.

    There was still plenty available today. Most people aren't thinking about tariffs on Canadian soft-wood timber at the moment. Let's hope we never have to.

    I also stocked up on olive oil. But that's more to do with inflationary psychology than worries about shortages, assuming they can get the product to us from Europe in something besides Chinese built/flagged vessels.
  • edited May 6
    You can stock up on TP at Amazon.
    Only $3.20 / 100 sheets.
    Amazon TP

    While shopping there, you could also purchase a toilet brush with a similar theme.
    Amazon Brush
  • Not sure I'd let that orange TP touch my backside, but might splurge on that toilet brush.

    Been stocking up on TP & paper towels, just in case this thing goes sideways. Clearly I am not alone.
  • Good idea.
    I should probably stock up on TP & paper towels at Costco.
    Have plenty of Kleenex already.
    Better safe than sorry!
  • Good idea.
    I should probably stock up on TP & paper towels at Costco.
    Have plenty of Kleenex already.
    Better safe than sorry!

    I loaded up on single-malts in late March before 'liberation day' happened :)
  • CNN reporting the west coast ports already showing signficant declines in shipping cargo traffic...

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/ar-AA1EgCdN
  • rforno said:

    CNN reporting the west coast ports already showing signficant declines in shipping cargo traffic...

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/ar-AA1EgCdN

    It really bugs me when media types refer to ships as boats. They really ought to know better. So are they intentionally ignorant for some reason?
  • @WABC. Agree ! Every weekend we cruised past multiple CONTAINER SHIPS aboard our SAILBOAT. Not the same.
  • larryB said:

    @WABC. Agree ! Every weekend we cruised past multiple CONTAINER SHIPS aboard our SAILBOAT. Not the same.

    Monitoring channels 16, 13 and/or the local VTS?
  • WABC. good knowledge. Actually I enjoy 13 and traffic,as they refer to themselves on San Francisco Bay, because I like to listen to the professionals.
  • larryB said:

    @WABC. Agree ! Every weekend we cruised past multiple CONTAINER SHIPS aboard our SAILBOAT. Not the same.

    Relatedly, don't anyone dare call a Navy submarine a 'ship' or they might just find themselves fired out of a torpedo tube. Submarines are 'boats'. :)

    (and no, I never served on a Navy ship)
  • larryB said:

    WABC. good knowledge. Actually I enjoy 13 and traffic,as they refer to themselves on San Francisco Bay, because I like to listen to the professionals.

    I spent 25 years on 10.

    I was trained by an old Coastie. Don't talk like a trucker. Don't talk like a cop. Don't talk like you're in the army. Never raise your voice because the mike doesn't work that way, develop a presence, etc.

  • Indeed. All good advice. Better to sound like you know what you are doing than a guy on a bayliner with fenders hanging out and asking for radio checks on 16.
  • If everything is on fire, who sold already?
  • https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/06/trump-tariffs-hit-us-exports-import-covid-level-event.html

    Trump trade tariffs slump widens to ‘nearly all U.S. exports,’ supply chain data shows
    PUBLISHED TUE, MAY 6 20257:32 AM EDT UPDATED TUE, MAY 6 20259:54 AM EDT
    Lori Ann LaRocco

    KEY POINTS

    *An exports slide that began in early 2025 has reached most ports across the U.S. and nearly all export market products as the trade impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs worsens, with agriculture the hardest hit.

    *As businesses cancel orders from China, U.S. imports continue to plummet, with a 43% week-over-week drop in containers through April 28.

    *“We haven’t seen anything like this since the disruptions of summer 2020,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of trade tracker Vizion. “That means goods expected to arrive in the next six to eight weeks simply won’t. With tariffs driving costs higher, small businesses are pausing orders. Products that once moved reliably are now twice as expensive, forcing importers into tough decisions,” he said.



    (No references to "boats"!)
  • Well, now. THERE'S a big effing surprise. Shaking my head. The Orange Dunce has been put in charge. Did someone expect anything different than what is taking place?
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