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Why Our Money Pros Are the Most Bearish in Nearly 30 Years - Barron’s
"Only 20% of Big Money managers indicate they approve of Team Trump’s tariff policy, while about 80% put the odds of a tariff-related recession at 40% or higher.
Still, 60% consider the market’s tariff-related tempest a buying opportunity."
So, buy the expected dip. Except the market doesn't like to comply with our expectations for future performance.
So, buy the expected dip. Except the market doesn't like to comply with our expectations for future performance.
”The latest poll was mailed out in late March, with supplementary tariff-related questions added in early April.” Unfortunately, these surveys are about a month old before all the survey results are received and aggregated and an article published.
Buying in early April would have been very productive: “As of Friday, the S&P 500 index had risen nine days in a row, its longest streak since 2004. It jumped 10.2% in that span—2.9% of that in the past week … The market has made back the entirety of its ‘Liberation Day’ selloff.“ (Excerpted from the same issue of Barron’s - 5/4/25)
Don’t know. I think it was just coincidence Barron’s sent the surveys out in late March / early April right when the markets crumbled. It’s a survey they conduct every spring and fall 6 months apart. Obviously for short term traders that proved to be a buying opportunity. But I can’t remember anybody ringing a bell back then saying “BUY.” Could be wrong. You might want to check the threads here for April 2 (Liberation Day) to see what the prevailing sentiment was. Was anyone buying?
Obviously, the article wasn’t intended to facilitate market timing.
Thirty-two percent of professional investors in Barron's Big Money poll are bearish while twenty-six percent are bullish. These are the largest and smallest percentages, respectively, since 1997. Optimists believe the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the DJIA will be 4% - 7% above recent levels at year-end. Pessimists believe the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will experience low double-digit losses while the DJIA will decline 7%.
Only 20% of poll respondents approve of Trump's tariff policy. Several respondents wished the administration focused on policies which could lead to more immediate growth. Deregulation was the top priority for 38% of respondents.
"Still, 2025 is likely to remain a year of surprises. And if subsequent quarters mirror the first, investors could be in for a tumultuous ride. 'It is a difficult market,' says Ken Laudan, manager of the Buffalo Blue Chip Growth fund. 'You have to be comfortable being very uncomfortable.'”
I've increased my Maalox inventory significantly in preparation for stock market turbulence.
I still don't think a lot of the damage is in the numbers yet and the lies will only carry so far. EX: gas here a week or so ago was 3.09 -- about a month ago it was 2.89-2.99. Yesterday back to 2.89, not much difference but not lower. I'm actually surprised by that because oil is much lower. Tariffs may make it into the Q2 numbers unless they change 3 times this quarter. Once/ IF tariffs are enacted and they start laying off port workers and truck drivers and the snowball starts rolling watch out. This summer may be interesting.
With a historically high level of UNCERTAINTY about every aspect of amerikan life, including the guy in the White House questioning his obligation to follow the constitution,,,,, it would take a ton of optimism to be bullish.
The market hates uncertainty as @larryB posted. Who can make investment plans for their business with these chaos ? The damage already done cannot be readily reverse with the allied countries. Question is when the largest treasury holders start to sell their holdings when things get ugly? Remember, the tariffs pause is only 90 days from the Libration Day, April 2, 2025 - July 2, 2025.
As individual investors, we are not buying on the dip. Rather we are reallocating stocks to bonds, oversea stocks, and cash. Don’t think we have reached the bottom.
Comments
Still, 60% consider the market’s tariff-related tempest a buying opportunity."
So, buy the expected dip. Except the market doesn't like to comply with our expectations for future performance.
Unfortunately, these surveys are about a month old before all the survey results are received and aggregated and an article published.
Buying in early April would have been very productive: “As of Friday, the S&P 500 index had risen nine days in a row, its longest streak since 2004. It jumped 10.2% in that span—2.9% of that in the past week … The market has made back the entirety of its ‘Liberation Day’ selloff.“ (Excerpted from the same issue of Barron’s - 5/4/25)
Don’t know. I think it was just coincidence Barron’s sent the surveys out in late March / early April right when the markets crumbled. It’s a survey they conduct every spring and fall 6 months apart. Obviously for short term traders that proved to be a buying opportunity. But I can’t remember anybody ringing a bell back then saying “BUY.” Could be wrong. You might want to check the threads here for April 2 (Liberation Day) to see what the prevailing sentiment was. Was anyone buying?
Obviously, the article wasn’t intended to facilitate market timing.
Thanks for the comments @JD_co
Only 20% of poll respondents approve of Trump's tariff policy.
Several respondents wished the administration focused on policies which could lead to more immediate growth. Deregulation was the top priority for 38% of respondents.
"Still, 2025 is likely to remain a year of surprises. And if subsequent quarters mirror the first, investors could be in for a tumultuous ride. 'It is a difficult market,' says Ken Laudan, manager of the Buffalo Blue Chip Growth fund. 'You have to be comfortable being very uncomfortable.'”
I've increased my Maalox inventory significantly in preparation for stock market turbulence.
https://nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/read-full-transcript-president-donald-trump-interviewed-meet-press-mod-rcna203514
The market hates uncertainty as @larryB posted. Who can make investment plans for their business with these chaos ? The damage already done cannot be readily reverse with the allied countries. Question is when the largest treasury holders start to sell their holdings when things get ugly? Remember, the tariffs pause is only 90 days from the Libration Day, April 2, 2025 - July 2, 2025.
As individual investors, we are not buying on the dip. Rather we are reallocating stocks to bonds, oversea stocks, and cash. Don’t think we have reached the bottom.