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mkt is voting things are ok and chaos ceases 'soon enough'. potential is valid for trump to realize more trade bribes are not arriving, gets bored, and tariffs mostly normalize.
”The US economy contracted at the start of the year for the first time since 2022 on a monumental pre-tariffs import surge and more moderate consumer spending, a first snapshot of the ripple effects from President Donald Trump's trade policy. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product decreased an annualized 0.3% in the first quarter, well below average growth of about 3% in the prior two years, according to the government's initial estimate published Wednesday. Net exports subtracted nearly 5 percentage points from GDP, the most on record, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed. The data highlight the scramble by companies to secure merchandise ahead of expansive tariffs.”
Also - Listened to a Bloomberg interview with Mark Mobius, formerly of Franklin Templeton notoriety, last evening. Mostly an EM analyst. Can’t tell you what his batting average is. Says he has the money he now manages 95% in cash - waiting for a big buying opportunity. Yet, Mobious confidently predicts the S&P will finish the year much higher than it is now. Go figure!
it seems reasonable to conjecture that the market would be down a lot more if economic policy maintains and\or keeps getting worse. there is no universe where the gop would actually have a rational strategy AND be able to execute.
but then, the voting portion of the market can overweight short-term optimism, and may not reflect the breadth & depth of the damage. we are now starting to debate the significance of early hard data.
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https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/042625-ConsumerandFirms_v2.pdf
”The US economy contracted at the start of the year for the first time since 2022 on a monumental pre-tariffs import surge and more moderate consumer spending, a first snapshot of the ripple effects from President Donald Trump's trade policy. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product decreased an annualized 0.3% in the first quarter, well below average growth of about 3% in the prior two years, according to the government's initial estimate published Wednesday. Net exports subtracted nearly 5 percentage points from GDP, the most on record, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed. The data highlight the scramble by companies to secure merchandise ahead of expansive tariffs.”
Also - Listened to a Bloomberg interview with Mark Mobius, formerly of Franklin Templeton notoriety, last evening. Mostly an EM analyst. Can’t tell you what his batting average is. Says he has the money he now manages 95% in cash - waiting for a big buying opportunity. Yet, Mobious confidently predicts the S&P will finish the year much higher than it is now. Go figure!
it seems reasonable to conjecture that the market would be down a lot more if economic policy maintains and\or keeps getting worse. there is no universe where the gop would actually have a rational strategy AND be able to execute.
but then, the voting portion of the market can overweight short-term optimism, and may not reflect the breadth & depth of the damage. we are now starting to debate the significance of early hard data.