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Let the Exemptions Begin!

edited April 12 in Other Investing
Well, more like continue, I guess.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tariffs-exclusions-exemptions-apple-nvidia-dell-smartphones-pcs-b2e069ff?mod=home_ln

Excerpt:

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency announced good news for Apple AAPL+4.06%, Nvidia NVDA +3.12%, Dell, and others late Friday night. A new list of goods to be exempted from the latest round of tariffs on U.S. importers was released, and it includes smartphones, PCs, servers, and other technology goods, many of which are assembled in China.

"When this battle is over, who will wear the crown?" (I prefer the Delaney and Bonnie version.)

But in the meantime, we're looking at "sound and fury, signifying nothing" (Thanks, Bill!) about the man that we didn't already know.

Comments

  • That's what a $1M donation to Trump's inauguration bought Tim Cook. Pay to play, but cheap so far. That will change.
  • Guess that means we won't be manufacturing any of them items in the US anytime soon (as if that were going to be happening ever any how).
  • Something is not right. With the way I visualize money flows, exemption is paramount to subsidize. Since some companies have lower taxes (exemption from tariffs) and incentives to keep their manufacturing outside the US (exemption from tariff on parts and cheaper labor if they produce elsewhere) then to provide the "balance the budget", other companies, not favored by exemptions, will need tariffs high enough to cover the lost revenue (pay the subsidized (lost revenue) and contribute to their campaign costs (new paradigm for a profitable business license). What is incorrect about what I see?
  • edited April 12
    @Anna Do you assume Trump actually has settled on a final top line net revenue number? It appears to me Trump is creating his evolving tariff policy on the fly. By my logic, the revenue number will continuously evolve as the actual policy gets created in real time. Victory will be announced when he decides he has enough wins to demonstrate he is "in command". By then, I suspect a substantial number of $'s will be scheduled to flow into his proposed "Department of External Revenue". That will bolster his claim of Victory.
  • davfor said:

    @Anna Do you assume Trump actually has settled on a final top line net revenue number? It appears to me Trump is creating his evolving tariff policy on the fly. By my logic, the revenue number will continuously evolve as the actual policy gets created in real time.


    FYI: Asked on Wednesday how he would decide on any further exemptions, Mr. Trump said: “Instinctively, more than anything else. I mean, you almost can’t take a pencil to paper. It’s really more of an instinct, I think, than anything else.”


  • @fred495 And I woulda have thought the answer would be: "don't know 'til I see the brown of their noses". Oh, I see, that's the new definition of instinctive in the new and great again Webster's.
  • "It’s the kind of friendly treatment that industry was envisioning when Apple CEO Tim Cook, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos assembled behind the president during his Jan. 20 inauguration. That united display of fealty reflected Big Tech’s hopes that Trump would be more accommodating than President Joe Biden’s administration’s and help propel an already booming industry to even greater heights."

    "Apple won praise from Trump in late February when the Cupertino, California, company committed to invest $500 billion and add 20,000 jobs in the U.S. during the next four years. The pledge was an echo of a $350 billion investment commitment in the U.S. that Apple made during Trump’s first term when the iPhone was exempted from China tariffs."

    apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-smartphones-electronics-laptops-apple-10c31e91d7790bfe8fb004f547109359
  • 10 days after liberation day Trump’s tariff policy is more about undermining the USA’s credibility than reshoring or revenue creation
  • Works for me, Trump blinked - market will be up a lot on Monday.
  • edited April 13
    Lutnick is saying that this electronics tariff exemption is just temporary.
    May be Bessent, Lutnick & Navarro should be required to issue joint statements only.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/commerce-secretary-lutnick-tariff-exemptions-electronics-temporary/story?id=120752319
  • edited April 13
    Most Americans, especially second-gen and beyond, are conditioned by a culture where negotiating feels awkward or rude. They treat prices and terms as fixed. But the world doesn’t run on fixed terms—it runs on what you can get someone else to agree to.
    * Leverage is power: The person who can walk away has the upper hand. The moment you need something, you’ve lost a chunk of your leverage.
    * Don’t bid against yourself: Starting with a $1 offer is symbolic—it shifts the power dynamic. You’re forcing the seller to chase you rather than the other way around. Most people cave and try to “be reasonable” too early. All these ridiculous numbers mean nothing, and then you read these articles: "It's not 37%, after tidious calculation, it's really only 15%." Who cares? good negotiators stars way, way beyond the target.
    * Negotiation is performance: BS, humor, firmness, preempting objections, and feigned disinterest—these are all tools. It’s not about being “polite”; it’s about reading the situation and playing the game.
    * Language and cultural unity matter: When you deal with groups who negotiate collectively, it adds a layer of strategy. You’re not dealing with one mind, you’re dealing with a shifting consensus. That’s tough.
    * Big picture thinking: If Trump gets 10% off here, 5% there—it’s not about the noise, it’s about net gains. What’s the bottom line?

    The art of negotiation is an art that is acquired over decades.
  • You can smear lipstick on a pig, but its still a pig.
  • edited April 13
    Lutnick is saying that this electronics tariff exemption is just temporary.
    May be Bessent, Lutnick & Navarro should be required to issue joint statements only.
    @yogibb, I totally agree in light the rapid flip-floping on tariffs. It has reported that there is internal struggle between Bessent and Lutnick on implementing the tariffs, let alone where Narravo stands. Bessent is being the adult between the two.

    To better understand Navarro, this WSJ provides further insights. Sorry that is behind a paywall.
    https://apple.news/ATpThedCYSIa_9C5TGGZJdw
  • edited April 13
    It's interesting when people use pretzel logic in an attempt to somehow justify Trump's terrible tariffs.
    The tariff "plan" is clearly absurd (e.g., rate calculations, taxing uninhabited islands)
    and it was implemented haphazardly. Communication from administration officials regarding tariffs
    was often either nonexistant or contradictory. Most credible economists and financial professionals
    believe the end result will be higher inflation, increased unemployment, and lower GDP.
    Regardless of how some people "spin" these tariffs, it was an extremely imprudent act
    which heightened global financial risks and alienated major US allies.

    The art of reasoning is an art which often take decades to acquire.
  • edited April 13

    It's interesting when people use pretzel logic in an attempt to somehow justify Trump's terrible tariffs.
    The tariff "plan" is clearly absurd (e.g., rate calculations, taxing uninhabited islands)
    and it was implemented haphazardly. Communication from administration officials regarding tariffs
    was often either nonexistant or contradictory. Most credible economists and financial professionals
    believe the end result will be higher inflation, increased unemployment, and lower GDP.
    Regardless of how some people "spin" these tariffs, it was an extremely imprudent act
    which heightened global financial risks and alienated major US allies.

    The art of reasoning is an art which often take decades to acquire.

    The same spin you guys used about the southern border being closed and the Prez is in great shape and runs the country. This is why all these threads belong in the OFF TOPIC forum.

    There are 5-6 posters that fill out the investment forums daily, and that's why we don't discuss investing as much.
    The other investing forum is still about investing, not politics.
  • edited April 13

    Lutnick is saying that this electronics tariff exemption is just temporary.
    May be Bessent, Lutnick & Navarro should be required to issue joint statements only.
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/commerce-secretary-lutnick-tariff-exemptions-electronics-temporary/story?id=120752319

    No kidding. It's not just FOTUS that can't keep his story straight, but his top 'advisors' as well. This is pure insanity+incompetence from a gang that can't shoot, let alone speak, straight. And the markets, if not all of us, suffer from the chaos that shifts hour-by-hour, tweet-by-tweet, media-hit-by-media-hit.
  • Two hours ago:

    "(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump denies that there was a tariff “exception” for certain electronics announced Friday, saying in a post on Truth Social that these products are still subject to existing tariffs of 20% and that the administration is looking into tariffs on the whole supply chain for electronics."

    “These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket,’” Trump says

    Upcoming national security tariff investigations will look at semiconductors and the “whole electronics supply chain,” Trump adds

    Trump says nobody is “off the hook” for unfair trade, “especially not China”

    NOTE: Lutnick Says Tariff Pause on Phones, Computers Is Temporary"
  • edited April 13
    Well seems like Lutnick was right- evidently they were temporary- just over the weekend.

    Maybe those will be in a new bucket: Mon-Fri only , or maybe even "weekday only but suspended for 90 days" , unless of course they convert to "Trump thinks of something else tariffs".

    Keep 'em off-balance, Trump baby !!
  • edited April 13
    Hey, this is just one small part of Trump's Grand Master Plan (GMP)! ;-)
  • If that's pronounced "Gimp" it sure sounds right!
  • A wind is notorious for changing direction. Looks like a windbag shares the same trait. Stability and truth have no place here.
  • edited April 14
    Interesting Bloomberg Article (here)


    image

    Is anyone else surprised by how little ipads contribute to Apple’s bottom line? I sure was. 99% of my internet access is on ipads. I own 2 newer models, a larger ipad “Air” for home and a smaller “mini” when away. Sounds like maybe Samsung or some of the other non-IOS devices have taken a big bite out of Apple.
  • edited April 14
    Interesting article. Resharing iPhone manufacturing in the States is impossible (lack of skill labor) and high labor cost. Some calculated that an American-made iPhone 16 would cost at least $2,000.

    In 2017 Cook said if there is a tooling meeting being held in US, there may be a handful of workers to be held in a conference room, whereas the same meeting being held in China, it would take several football fields. Foxconn has done a masterful job in mass manufacturing of high valued products. If US wants to compete, where are the training, education and funding for new “skill” workers ?

    Apple has attempted to move manufacturing to Vietnam, but the lacking of the number of skilled workers limited its potential. India is more successful but there are more local political hurdles and infrastructure (reliable power grid) to overcome in order to make a full transition from China.

    I understand that iPhones have very high profit margins and customers often upgrade their $1,000 phones in 2 years. iPads and Mac computers are more like commodity products having much longer service life. My Mac computers are still running well after 10 years.
  • Interesting article @hank. The revenue difference between the iPad and iPhone revenue was surprise at first until I considered it a bit more.

    Just some of my own observations:

    - Many iPads seem to sell for less than the price of an iPhone
    - Most of the masses can be found nearly anywhere with a phone in their hands, not so much a tablet.
    - The younger generation (13-25 yr olds) live and die with their phones so it seems. They rarely speak of must having to possess a tablet.
    - I own all 4 (phone, pad, iMac and MacBook). I do so mostly for vision related reasons but also seamless integration between them. The phone is primarily just a phone to me. I hate all the scrolling around, enlarging and/or shrinking etc., etc. yet my kids do it with no sweat whatsoever as if they came into this world with a phone in their hands. I had breakfast Sunday morning with a 4yr-old and her parents. She took over my phone and seemed to know what to do with everything. What's funny is that at my home they ask me to assist them with performing a task on the iMac or MacBook. Maybe it's just because they have to use a mouse or curser instead of swiping with their fingers.
  • beebee
    edited April 14
    @Sven said,
    I understand that iPhones have very high profit margins
    I looked into Apple's "economic footprint" and discovered that Apple exceeds the government revenues of Switzerland, Norway and Russia. Only 9 countries are larger economic entities than Walmart.
    image

    Many of the top 25 economic entities are Corporations, not Countries.

    image


    Here are a couple of articles for food for thought when it comes to the economic significance of individual countries and individual global corporations. Few have mentioned that these exemptions and tariffs have a huge impact on many global corporations. These global corporations have a different kind of allegiance than do countries. Corporate goals are aligned more closely with shareholders demands than the messy needs of countryman's.

    Because their goal don't always align, Corporations operate as odd bed fellows in the Countries they do business as well as the countries they sell to.

    Countries vs Corporations - Comparing Economic Entities
    corporations-not-countries-dominate-the-list-of-the-world-s-biggest-economic-entities/

    Global Manufacturing:
    global-manufacturing-scorecard-how-the-us-compares-to-18-other-nations
  • edited April 14
    From WSJ (Live Updates section).
    Potential tariff pauses for auto manufacturers were announced today.
    How can business operators implement any plans while this senseless tariff policy is in effect?
    Bolded text added for emphasis.

    "The president also said Monday afternoon that he is looking at some tariff pauses to help car companies. Shares of automakers like Ford and General Motors perked up on the news."

    "The Trump administration has sent some mixed signals on the tech tariff changes: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warned Sunday that many tech products will still face separate levies in a month or two as part of an investigation into semiconductors under Section 232 trade law."

    “'We have the potential for these exemptions to be rolled back at any moment,' said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist for Baird Private Wealth Management. 'If you're a business operator, you can't really have any faith that there's going to be any stickiness or a long-lasting policy in place here.'”
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