I don't know much, except what I see; from time to time.
--- The Pimco Enhanced Short Duration, etf; had the first price down days (Last Friday and today) since late 2022.
--- UST issues 2, 5, 10 and 30 year durations had large basis points gains today. The percentage (%) moves ranged from +3% to +4.8%.
--- Many IG bond funds/etf's; after decent YTD price gains recently, have lost about 50% of those gains TODAY.
I'm trying to imagine a progressing action from foreign holders of UST issues selling off UST's. Their mantra being, 'We don't want your
junk issues any longer, as you're becoming a failing state'. Of course, if a message was sent to certain folks in D.C. stating that the U.S. might/should consider that 'tariff' thing.
This data is believed to be accurate.
Top Foreign Holders:
Japan: Holds the largest amount of U.S. debt, with over $1 trillion.
China: Is the second-largest foreign holder, with approximately $759 billion.
United Kingdom: Follows China with approximately $723 billion.
Other Notable Holders:
Luxembourg: holds $423.9 billion.
Cayman Islands: holds $418.9 billion.
Foreign Holdings Composition:
Foreigners hold approximately one-third of outstanding U.S. Treasury securities.
The composition of foreign holdings varies by geography, with advanced economies' holdings being predominantly private investors and emerging market economies' holdings dominated by official holdings.
Data Source:
The data on foreign holdings of U.S. securities is based on the Treasury International Capital (TIC) U.S. liabilities survey (SHL).
Types of Treasury Securities:
The U.S. Treasury offers five types of Treasury marketable securities: Treasury Bills, Treasury Notes, Treasury Bonds, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), and Floating Rate Notes (FRNs).
Remain curious,
Catch
Comments
The U.S. government (not we citizens) has declared economic war with all countries. There are a lot of folks globally who are very unhappy. Not unlike a Tom Clancy or others novel; all things are very possible. I can fully imagine the discussions of not wanting what may become 'junk' UST's.
UST issues are at a tiny positive right now (9pm EST).
Equity, bonds and US$ down, simultaneous. OUCH !!!
And China announced a 'screw you, too' policy of a 84% tariff increase, early today.
Current/active UST yields chart that updates daily during open hours.
One doesn't find much stand up opposition in congress or the senate to the current 'crazy'. So, economic damages will be done; that will be difficult to fix short term, IMO.
Global bond rout starting to sound market alarm bells
2.5 hours ago
06:21 EDT REUTERS
U.S. Treasuries, the bedrock of the global financial system, were hit by fresh selling pressure on Wednesday in a sign that investors were dumping their safest assets as turmoil unleashed by U.S. tariffs prompts forced selling and a dash for cash.
The 10-year Treasury yield has risen 36 basis points (bps) to 4.35% this week alone as prices fall sharply. If sustained, that would mark the biggest weekly jump since 2013.
The rout in the roughly $29 trillion Treasury market dragged borrowing costs across the globe higher, raising pressure on central banks and policymakers to act fast to shelter economies now facing a sharp slowdown as U.S. tariffs kick in.
Japan will cooperate with the Group of Seven advanced economies and the International Monetary Fund to help stabilize a market rout unleashed by U.S. tariffs, the country's top currency diplomat said on Wednesday.
Japanese 30-year government bond yield surged to 21-year highs and Britain's 30-year bond yields rose to their highest since 1998.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the globe's benchmark safe-haven anchor, was unmoored and long bonds were the focus of intense selling from hedge funds which had borrowed to bet on usually small gaps between cash and futures prices.
2, 5, 10 and 30 year Treasury issues are indicating decently lower yields (price appreciation) and hopefully maintaining and improving going into Thursday trading.
People will become so rich, richer than any other time in recorded history.
BE COOL!
HERE
From October 1993 to November 1994 US 10-year yields climbed from 5.2% to just over 8.0% fueled by concerns about federal spending in what became informally known as the "Great Bond Massacre." With some guidance from Robert Rubin, the United States Secretary of the Treasury, the Clinton administration and Congress made an effort to reduce the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to approximately 4% by November 1998.
Clinton political adviser James Carville said at the time, "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."
Would you want to buy greenback with so much deficit and it is getting higher with the second Tac Cut Act. Somewhere over trillion of dollars in next ten years.
Wonder when a downgrade of US Treasury will come? Or should investors should invest in other foreign bonds? There was a surplus by the end of Clinton administration. Then came Bush was enacted tax cut that drove the country to have such huge deficits
today. Most Americans forgotten about Clinton administration’s achievements.
I noted in the first post of this thread:
--- MINT, The Pimco Enhanced Short Duration, etf; had the first price down days (Last Friday and last Monday) since late 2022.
MINT started to stabilize earlier this week....until 'tariff city'. AND now, and especially today (April 10), the MINT price is down -.12% during normal hours, and -.29% after hours.
What had been a normal full week since December, 2022 of a + gain for one week of about +.06%, each and every week, is now gone. Even Pimco's magic sauce is having difficulty managing whatever is taking place.
Today, April 10, Thursday ranging from the very short duration through the 20 year duration found a down price range of -.02% through -2.76% for bills, notes and bonds.
The bleeding continues for etf's: SHY, IEF, AGG, HYG, LQD AND TLT.
SO, be it not many buyers of UST issues, or too many sellers, or just no buyers or however one wants to present the issue; the undermining continues. What is the STOPPING point ???
Who or what Federal agency has the knowledge or willingness to step in when the crack in the dam is close to beyond saving from a complete break ???
Tis time for this fella to meditate.