Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Musk and his tech goons made out like bandits, and now Musk is running out the door. Who will be the next thief to be granted access to our sensitive information...and chop up govt jobs and people's livelihood with a chainsaw?
Our future Social Security checks....who will end up with those funds? Does that money translate into a tax break for some rich folks later this year?
The whole "reveal" this evening is gamesmanship from some narcissistic convict who loves himself more than anything else on this planet.
I can't take anymore of this winning. So much winning. Can't wait to see how these tariffs get us to the promised land.
"The Trump Administration has acted illegally and unconstitutionally in ways that weaken our democratic institutions, slow down our economy, roll back protections for public health and the environment, and put health care and Social Security benefits at risk for millions of Americans.
It's been said many times, many ways, before: he's working for Vladimir. Hollowing-out our institutions, screwing up the economy. People? Who cares about PEOPLE? Excuse me, I want to spend some more time admiring myself in the mirror. PROJECT 2025.
Why all the angst? We've been told the for last few days that tariffs have nothing to do with investing haven't we? Shortly we'll hear what we should have done a few days ago.
My gods, our Treasury Secretary is an idiot... if you punch me, I'm damn well punching you back, not pausing for a minute.
NYT: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged other governments to hold off on responding to the new tariffs. “One of the messages that I’d like to get out tonight is: Everybody, sit back, take a deep breath. Don’t immediately retaliate,” Bessent said on CNN. “Let’s see where this goes. Because if you retaliate, that’s how we get escalation.”
If you had any hopes that Trump would step back from the brink, this announcement, between the very high tariff rates and the complete falsehoods about what other countries do, should kill them.
Guess What Country Trump Left Off His List of Tariffs
"Eagle-eyed social media users were quick to point out that Russia was not part of about 60 countries the Trump administration deemed the “worst offenders” in trade policy, along with Canada and Mexico.
Canada and Mexico were absent from the list because there was no further update to the existing tariffs slapped on them."
The current administration has produced a list of tarrifs supposedly imposed on US products by other countries. Like many other statements from this administration, the list is extremely inaccurate in numerous respects. For example, the list says that Switzerland imposes a tarrif of 61%. In fact, Switzerland has a tariff of 0% on US industrial products. Please stop posting this inaccurate list.
The following excerpts are from the Points of Return newsletter by John Authers.
"A further problem is the bizarre mathematics behind the estimates of countries’ overall tariffs, which include currency manipulation and non-tariff trade barriers. No explanation of how these can be combined into one tariff rate has been offered. Peter Tchir of Academy Securities commented that this 'seems like the sort of thing you turn in when you watched college hoops all weekend and need to get the assignment turned in or you fail.'”
"This is not a serious way to proceed, and it’s insulting to put such huge restraints on allies’ trade with such weak explanation — particularly in a speech that accuses the rest of the world of 'raping and pillaging' the US. Under the common understanding of reciprocity, trade negotiators would go through product by product (involving many difficult definitions), and make sure that each individual tariff is balanced. That would have been very difficult, but would appear fair. This appears arbitrary, because it is."
Mr. Market seems surprised Trump did what he said he was going to do.
Mr Market and the economy are controlled by the same companies/entities/people who only saw 'tax cuts for us!' during the 2024 campaign and didn't pay attention to Tariff Toddler's other bleating about embracing economic isolationism ... they are now flailing around trying to figure out how to plan their businesses in all this chaos.
FAFO, people. This was broadcast publicly from a mile away, and y'all chose to ignore it.
Lots of posts in social-media are pointing this out - that the figures on what tariffs the other countries charge on the US products aren't supported by the other data available. It looks like the White House just calculated each country's trade deficit with the US as % of its total exports to the US (i.e % trade imbalance).
There is also some humor,
"Manish Singh, CFAManish Singh, CFA Chief Investment Officer at Crossbridge Capital GroupChief Investment Officer at Crossbridge Capital Group ... Looks like the penguins just got hit with a 10% tariff—maybe that'll teach them not to rip off the US!
A 10% Trump "reciprocal tariff" on Heard Island and McDonald Islands (HIMI)?
These islands are uninhabited and only accessible by a two-week sea voyage from Australia. Penguins are the dominant residents. Looks like the penguins just got hit with a 10% tariff—maybe that'll teach them not to rip off the US!
47% Trump "reciprocal tariffs" on Madagascar? That’s brutal. Madagascar’s animals won’t be escaping to Africa anymore—looks like their holidays are officially canceled!"
The morning premarket after Tariff Toddler's nonsense was announced...
Dow Futures down 3% SPX Futures down 3.5% NDAQ Futures down 4.4%
An hour before the US markets open, Tariff Toddler just said this..
"THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!"
Interestingly Ukraine got tariffed (along with uninhabited islands and territories belonging to other countries already tariffed) -- but Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and Cuba didn't.
I don't think ChatGPT could come up with something this daffy if it tried.
Comments
Our future Social Security checks....who will end up with those funds? Does that money translate into a tax break for some rich folks later this year?
The whole "reveal" this evening is gamesmanship from some narcissistic convict who loves himself more than anything else on this planet.
I can't take anymore of this winning. So much winning. Can't wait to see how these tariffs get us to the promised land.
I dunno- I hope that you aren't disappointed... seems to me that maybe this "winning" thing needs to be more closely examined.
1/3 below. More at https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1907536529943154779
https://substack.com/redirect/225b94ad-8f1c-421a-aab4-54dca4c09a57?j=eyJ1IjoidGNwa3kifQ.KBS0zuPUTKATtGWmThTTdfdmRWQ_eOWpD6buahk90Wg
Pain is good for the soul - we must learn to sacrifice. Yadda, yadda, yadda...
This will all be Trumps' fault. Not Biden's, not the Democrats, all his.
At the time of posting the main indexes are-
S&P: -3.23%
Dow: -2.21%
NASDAQ: -4.08%
Russell 2000: -4.74%
https://cohen.house.gov/TrumpAdminTracker
"The Trump Administration has acted illegally and unconstitutionally in ways that weaken our democratic institutions, slow down our economy, roll back protections for public health and the environment, and put health care and Social Security benefits at risk for millions of Americans.
And that’s just the start."
Yes, and this is just the start.
We are the richest country on the planet by far.... apparently that's not enough.
NYT: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged other governments to hold off on responding to the new tariffs. “One of the messages that I’d like to get out tonight is: Everybody, sit back, take a deep breath. Don’t immediately retaliate,” Bessent said on CNN. “Let’s see where this goes. Because if you retaliate, that’s how we get escalation.”
When will the stable genius blink?
The market hates uncertainty. We might feel some of that hate in the near-term.
Going Crazy on Trade
Guess What Country Trump Left Off His List of Tariffs
"Eagle-eyed social media users were quick to point out that Russia was not part of about 60 countries the Trump administration deemed the “worst offenders” in trade policy, along with Canada and Mexico.
Canada and Mexico were absent from the list because there was no further update to the existing tariffs slapped on them."
"A further problem is the bizarre mathematics behind the estimates of countries’ overall tariffs, which include currency manipulation and non-tariff trade barriers. No explanation of how these can be combined into one tariff rate has been offered. Peter Tchir of Academy Securities commented that this 'seems like the sort of thing you turn in when you watched college hoops all weekend and need to get the assignment turned in or you fail.'”
"This is not a serious way to proceed, and it’s insulting to put such huge restraints on allies’ trade with such weak explanation — particularly in a speech that accuses the rest of the world of 'raping and pillaging' the US. Under the common understanding of reciprocity, trade negotiators would go through product by product (involving many difficult definitions), and make sure that each individual tariff is balanced. That would have been very difficult, but would appear fair. This appears arbitrary, because it is."
From the stable genius..
FAFO, people. This was broadcast publicly from a mile away, and y'all chose to ignore it.
"US Emerges as Biggest Loser in Markets From Trump’s Tariffs"
In other words...
War is Peace.
Up is Down.
There are 5 Lights.
Losing is Winning - Bigly!
Welcome to Trumplandia.
There is also some humor,
"Manish Singh, CFAManish Singh, CFA
Chief Investment Officer at Crossbridge Capital GroupChief Investment Officer at Crossbridge Capital Group
...
Looks like the penguins just got hit with a 10% tariff—maybe that'll teach them not to rip off the US!
A 10% Trump "reciprocal tariff" on Heard Island and McDonald Islands (HIMI)?
These islands are uninhabited and only accessible by a two-week sea voyage from Australia.
Penguins are the dominant residents.
Looks like the penguins just got hit with a 10% tariff—maybe that'll teach them not to rip off the US!
47% Trump "reciprocal tariffs" on Madagascar? That’s brutal.
Madagascar’s animals won’t be escaping to Africa anymore—looks like their holidays are officially canceled!"
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/manish-singh-cfa-7561092_tariff-reciprocaltariff-trump-ugcPost-7313327434261508096-LgkR?utm_source=social_share_send&utm_medium=member_desktop_web&rcm=ACoAAFjCY6wBccxAhzfDGLCwSkfGL97DN413bHU
The U.S. tariff rate on all imports has rocketed to 22% from just 2.5% in 2024 under the new global levies imposed by President Donald Trump, according to Fitch Ratings.
Trade with Russia has dropped from $30B to $3B over the last 4 years. Pay attention to sanctions rolling back going forward.
Interesting Fact sheet:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports/russia
Dow Futures down 3%
SPX Futures down 3.5%
NDAQ Futures down 4.4%
An hour before the US markets open, Tariff Toddler just said this..
"THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!"
I don't think ChatGPT could come up with something this daffy if it tried.