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"Experts" Forecast Stock and Bond Returns: 2025 Edition
Look at who are predicting 6500 - 4 of 5 largest market participating banks. That is 6.5% from here. Probably easier to make that much with reasonably comfortable bond funds.
David Giroux’s 5300 is a 14% drop from here. So many members of this forum are invested heavily with David.
Look at who are predicting 6500 - 4 of 5 largest market participating banks. That is 6.5% from here. Probably easier to make that much with reasonably comfortable bond funds.
David Giroux’s 5300 is a 14% drop from here. So many members of this forum are invested heavily with David.
By how much are you reducing or have you reduced your equity allocation from the 2024 peak level?
I can't give you hard numbers, but somewhere around 75% equity/25% cash to begin with in the IRA.
I am now down to around 42% equity, 47% bonds, and 10% short-term (per Fido's dashboard) out of which cash is about 3%. I couldn't tell you how Fido makes that determination. They do show an M* style box that says I'm 84% short. For some reason USFR doesn't fit into the style box, and isn't qualified as cash, or other, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .
The current allocation has to do with the ongoing process of "simplifying" my IRA and not finding much to buy in the equity market these days.
If there are buying opportunities in the next couple of years I wouldn't mind going to 50 to 60% equity. Who knows? Maybe Mr Market will carry me there on his back.
The taxable is sui generis, so I won't go into it here.
Thank you @WABAC for sharing. 75 to 42% is huge. Good for you.
My equity allocation has not changed by my own deliberate actions but managers have reduced equities or increased allocation to cash. E.g., PRWCX is down to 55% equity (per David Giroux) and MRFOX is carrying nearly 30% cash. (As an aside, MRFOX probably should be classified has a tactical allocation fund.)
By how much are you reducing or have you reduced your equity allocation from the 2024 peak level?
We did our normal year end review allocation adjustments, and made slight changes to our deck chairs (holdings). We took our stock allocation down to the bottom of our normal range, given the very good performance of the last two years, but mainly due to the uncertainties of the new administration. That cash is parked in MMkts, to eventually be plowed back in, fully expecting a 10%-20% drop at some point this year or next. The biggest changes were to reductions in MAG7 and tech exposures, and increases in Value and SCs. No change to our PRWCX allocation.
I don't plan on adjusting my PRWCX holding, if you were wondering, BaluBalu....in fact I made my annual 10K contribution to it late last month.
Not just PRWCX but equity allocation overall from 2024 peak equity allocation.
David G already reduced equity allocation to 55%. Moving PRWCX to cash or bonds would reduce equity allocation even more.
First half of last year, I sold PRWCX to increase equity allocation which turned out to be a bad idea because of the choice of investment I made - underperformed PRWCX in a bull market. I am going to unwind that move and send that money back to PRWCX.
I had also sold some PRWCX to increase PHEFX. I already unwound that move, even though it was profitable because I will eventually move the entire PHEFX position into its ETF clone when launched to move it from IRA to taxable account.
Also don't forget that when a fund manager publicly offers a prediction, they've probably already made their move to prepare, so people acting on their words in the media may not be as 'timely' positioned as they think.
Also don't forget that when a fund manager publicly offers a prediction, they've probably already made their move to prepare, so people acting on their words in the media may not be as 'timely' positioned as they think.
Thanks for the PSA. Good reminder.
We should expect everyone in media to talk their book, unless they disclose otherwise. And not what they plan to do.
If the below data is correct (and please advise if it is not), just an incredible performance by PRWCX today.
PRWCX had just under 40% in Tech as of 12/31/24, and yet somehow, today, when FBALX (the allocation fund we have long owned as PRWCX's companion) shed 1.32%, PRWCX only shed 0.34%.
Note of course that Giroux has dropped his his equity stake to under ~55% while FBALX is holding closer to their normal ranges at ~64% with ~32% in Tech.
Bottom Line: PRWCX was slightly outperforming FBALX YTD coming into today, but that lead has now widened to ~1.67%.
All in a year that Giroux per the above ^ chart predicts an S&P drop of 11.6%.
Well done, David! Well done! ------------------------------- And as a follow up to my prior post about port changes this year, specifically adding Value, we bought two US LCV funds late last year, OAKMX and DAGVX.
DAGVX is UP 5.35% YTD and only shed 0.26% today. OAKMX (a fund we held for years long ago) is UP 6.31% YTD, with a nice 0.95% gain today!
If you are looking for worthy domestic OEF diversifiers, you can do a lot worse than these two!
Giroux marches to his own drummer which is why I like him -- he tends to stay away from meme/mometum stocks in large quantities. NVDA is like a 2.5% holding, so no big deal compared to a fund that's 10 or more percent in it (and other 'popular' stocks)
Comments
Blow this chart up. Pin it to a wall. Toss a dart or two and set your course.
https://www.rock-wealth.co.uk/monkeys-beat-money-managers-at-selling-stocks/
Monkeys beat money managers at selling stocks
Link
Not so good...
David Giroux’s 5300 is a 14% drop from here. So many members of this forum are invested heavily with David.
Thanks @bee and @stillers.
@bee, @stillers, @WABAC, @rforno, . . .
By how much are you reducing or have you reduced your equity allocation from the 2024 peak level?
If he misses by 25% …. ? ? ?
Fame is a fickle food
Upon a shifting plate
Whose table once a
Guest but not
The second time is set.
Whose crumbs the crows inspect
And with ironic caw
Flap past it to the Farmer's Corn –
Men eat of it and die.
- Emily Dickenson
I am now down to around 42% equity, 47% bonds, and 10% short-term (per Fido's dashboard) out of which cash is about 3%. I couldn't tell you how Fido makes that determination. They do show an M* style box that says I'm 84% short. For some reason USFR doesn't fit into the style box, and isn't qualified as cash, or other, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .
The current allocation has to do with the ongoing process of "simplifying" my IRA and not finding much to buy in the equity market these days.
If there are buying opportunities in the next couple of years I wouldn't mind going to 50 to 60% equity. Who knows? Maybe Mr Market will carry me there on his back.
The taxable is sui generis, so I won't go into it here.
My equity allocation has not changed by my own deliberate actions but managers have reduced equities or increased allocation to cash. E.g., PRWCX is down to 55% equity (per David Giroux) and MRFOX is carrying nearly 30% cash. (As an aside, MRFOX probably should be classified has a tactical allocation fund.)
No change to our PRWCX allocation.
David G already reduced equity allocation to 55%. Moving PRWCX to cash or bonds would reduce equity allocation even more.
First half of last year, I sold PRWCX to increase equity allocation which turned out to be a bad idea because of the choice of investment I made - underperformed PRWCX in a bull market. I am going to unwind that move and send that money back to PRWCX.
I had also sold some PRWCX to increase PHEFX. I already unwound that move, even though it was profitable because I will eventually move the entire PHEFX position into its ETF clone when launched to move it from IRA to taxable account.
We should expect everyone in media to talk their book, unless they disclose otherwise. And not what they plan to do.
PRWCX had just under 40% in Tech as of 12/31/24, and yet somehow, today, when FBALX (the allocation fund we have long owned as PRWCX's companion) shed 1.32%, PRWCX only shed 0.34%.
Note of course that Giroux has dropped his his equity stake to under ~55% while FBALX is holding closer to their normal ranges at ~64% with ~32% in Tech.
Bottom Line: PRWCX was slightly outperforming FBALX YTD coming into today, but that lead has now widened to ~1.67%.
All in a year that Giroux per the above ^ chart predicts an S&P drop of 11.6%.
Well done, David! Well done!
-------------------------------
And as a follow up to my prior post about port changes this year, specifically adding Value, we bought two US LCV funds late last year, OAKMX and DAGVX.
DAGVX is UP 5.35% YTD and only shed 0.26% today.
OAKMX (a fund we held for years long ago) is UP 6.31% YTD, with a nice 0.95% gain today!
If you are looking for worthy domestic OEF diversifiers, you can do a lot worse than these two!