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Junk still looks good. Also leveraged loans, bank loans. Stay very short on duration.
Ironically these higher risk bonds did much better than the safer investment grade bonds. As long as labor market stays healthy one can expect this trend continues in 2025, until inflation ticks upward. What would Powell do when fewer cuts are anticipated in 2025 ? Or will he kicks the can down the road for the next FED ?
@crash, I missed this episode on Friday as my TV forgot to record, I assumed the show was on a break, and I missed your post on Friday. If either of you remember the highlights of the episode,, pl post.
@BaluBalu ok, I'll re-watch and attempt to summarize. My main takeaway was from Earl Davis of BMO, as referenced above. I don't buy Treasuries directly. Input from here at MFO some time ago warns that the gummint's website is awkward and clunky. I own Treasuries through my funds. But I see that my junk is still doing better than IG. The Fed's own stance has changed. Fewer rate cuts are in the cards. My own (I.G.) WCPNX has been underperforming. After enough time passes to avoid the penalty for early trade-out, I'm switching it......
@Crash, please do not re-watch for my sake. 5 day old macro is as actionable as a 5 day old fish. Besides, next Friday is around the corner and we will get a new episode.
I forgot, are you entirely at Schwab now? Their fixed income desk is at 800-626-4600. The reps try to help. Their website is a bit clunky for bond purchases but doable. Also, I do not enjoy their timing of crediting of the account upon maturity of bonds / CDs - I think they are mostly delayed relative to Fido and the fact that you have to buy in - sell out of MM creates additional transactional / investment friction. So, i mostly buy them at Fido but Schwab has some low minimum funds to access.
Re: 03 Jan, '25: Expecting elevated volatility, uncertainty. The 2-10 year spread is at highest in over 2 years. Due to fiscal concerns. Davis (BMO) likes relatively attractive current yields on both Treasuries AND corporates. He's adding duration.
Ed Al-Hussainy (Columbia Threadneedle) is concerned about policy uncertainty, most. Political and fiscal policy. "Underneath," there is also the Fed's interest rate adjustment stance.
Leslie Falconio (UBS Global Wealth Management) sees the monetary side has been totally recalibrated. Her firm expects only two interest rate cuts in '25. (June and Sept.)
Al-Hussainy: watch to see what happens with tariffs. Falconio: Fed will most likely wind-down QT in 1st or 2nd Q.
Duration, Leslie? Yes, more duration now, but only out to the belly, around 5 years. When UST reach 4.75 at 10-years, they'll add further out the curve.
Al-Hussainy: duration is becoming a good hedge vs. risk assets, yes. Long end, out to the end of the year, is still quite "scary." *********** DELUGE of I.G. bond issuance expected. Already, $15B of issuance from Credit Agricole, GM and Ford. -A poll shows $200B of junk issuance in '25 is expected. (Expected to exceed last year's record.)
JoAnne Bianco (Bondbloxx:) Still see opportunity in credit, especially junk. Akila Grewal (Apollo Global) Private Credit will benefit in the impending higher-for-longer rate environment.
Sinjin Bowron (Beach Point Capital) Currently deploying money across the quality spectrum--- including "distressed opportunities." Distressed HY in '24 was a big driver of returns. But FR outperformed fixed income. Going forward, more bets into FR makes a lotta sense.
(Akila: ugh! Her manner of delivery is off-putting. Sounds just rushed and canned.) Anyhow: Apollo is still focused on higher quality, First Lien stuff.
Bowron: Coming into '25 there are both solid credit fundamentals and very tight valuations. And wider spreads should not come as a surprise, simply given political uncertainty into '25. Nevertheless, credit quality remains robust.
@Crash, please do not re-watch for my sake. 5 day old macro is as actionable as a 5 day old fish. Besides, next Friday is around the corner and we will get a new episode.
I forgot, are you entirely at Schwab now? Their fixed income desk is at 800-626-4600. The reps try to help. Their website is a bit clunky for bond purchases but doable. Also, I do not enjoy their timing of crediting of the account upon maturity of bonds / CDs - I think they are mostly delayed relative to Fido and the fact that you have to buy in - sell out of MM creates additional transactional / investment friction. So, i mostly buy them at Fido but Schwab has some low minimum funds to access.
Hello. The last individual bond I recall personally buying was in 2003. It was a foreign 10-year "zero." I did well. For political reasons, I refuse to go back to the same source. And given my home and extended family situation, individual bonds and CDs don't work for me. Schwab may have things arranged to be pain-in-the-ass, but I just never use that function, anyhow. Yes, for simplicity, I'm all-in with Chuck. Like you, I don't like to have to sell-out of MM in order to buy stocks, stock funds or bond funds. But I live with it.
The political situation coming up is going to be "interesting," to say the least! It will surely affect markets. More volatility is surely to be expected.
I offered some highlights in a previous attempt to post, but my way-too-sensitive stoopid Apple idiot computer evaporated the whole thing when it thought I was telling it to revert to the previous page. Mountains of skunk dooky.
Comments
I forgot, are you entirely at Schwab now? Their fixed income desk is at 800-626-4600. The reps try to help. Their website is a bit clunky for bond purchases but doable. Also, I do not enjoy their timing of crediting of the account upon maturity of bonds / CDs - I think they are mostly delayed relative to Fido and the fact that you have to buy in - sell out of MM creates additional transactional / investment friction. So, i mostly buy them at Fido but Schwab has some low minimum funds to access.
Expecting elevated volatility, uncertainty. The 2-10 year spread is at highest in over 2 years. Due to fiscal concerns. Davis (BMO) likes relatively attractive current yields on both Treasuries AND corporates. He's adding duration.
Ed Al-Hussainy (Columbia Threadneedle) is concerned about policy uncertainty, most. Political and fiscal policy. "Underneath," there is also the Fed's interest rate adjustment stance.
Leslie Falconio (UBS Global Wealth Management) sees the monetary side has been totally recalibrated. Her firm expects only two interest rate cuts in '25. (June and Sept.)
Al-Hussainy: watch to see what happens with tariffs.
Falconio: Fed will most likely wind-down QT in 1st or 2nd Q.
Duration, Leslie? Yes, more duration now, but only out to the belly, around 5 years. When UST reach 4.75 at 10-years, they'll add further out the curve.
Al-Hussainy: duration is becoming a good hedge vs. risk assets, yes. Long end, out to the end of the year, is still quite "scary."
***********
DELUGE of I.G. bond issuance expected.
Already, $15B of issuance from Credit Agricole, GM and Ford.
-A poll shows $200B of junk issuance in '25 is expected. (Expected to exceed last year's record.)
JoAnne Bianco (Bondbloxx:) Still see opportunity in credit, especially junk.
Akila Grewal (Apollo Global) Private Credit will benefit in the impending higher-for-longer rate environment.
Sinjin Bowron (Beach Point Capital) Currently deploying money across the quality spectrum--- including "distressed opportunities." Distressed HY in '24 was a big driver of returns. But FR outperformed fixed income. Going forward, more bets into FR makes a lotta sense.
(Akila: ugh! Her manner of delivery is off-putting. Sounds just rushed and canned.)
Anyhow: Apollo is still focused on higher quality, First Lien stuff.
Bowron: Coming into '25 there are both solid credit fundamentals and very tight valuations. And wider spreads should not come as a surprise, simply given political uncertainty into '25. Nevertheless, credit quality remains robust.
The political situation coming up is going to be "interesting," to say the least! It will surely affect markets. More volatility is surely to be expected.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-01-10/bloomberg-real-yield-01-10-2025-video
I offered some highlights in a previous attempt to post, but my way-too-sensitive stoopid Apple idiot computer evaporated the whole thing when it thought I was telling it to revert to the previous page. Mountains of skunk dooky.