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I read this thing, Ted. Thank you. In some ways, uncle Jeffrey is an outlier. He seems insightful to me, in a way that is difficult or impossible to explain. There ARE those of us, of such an ilk. Probably drive everyone else crazy. We manage to be able to see the heart of the matter, whatever the topic--- but can't tell you how we got there. However, Gundlach certainly does like to make use of a ton of CHARTS, which are ostensibly speaking, logical explanations or measurements. But maybe he uses them to please those who must have logical explanations in order to be convinced of anything. Kinda like the way I sprinkled quotations throughout my academic papers years ago, because they were required by the professor. So, OK. I'll make you happy and throw some quotes in there, and give you a bibliography at the end, to satisfy you that I can back-up what I'm telling you. (But often enough, the quotes were just filler, not even on-point.)
Reply to @AndyJ: S&P up 5% in 2013? It's already up 3.28%. Is there a fund manager out there who does as much public predicting and forecasting as Gundlach?
Reply to @Hiyield007: The implication is a substantial correction during the year. Arnott, who a lot of people like to listen to, is talking about risk of recession. I'm agnostic ... but I do get a kick out of all the turn-of-the-year prognosticating.
Reply to @AndyJ: It has been discussed last year that that "the consequence of failing to act on fiscal cliff leads to recession in 2013". Now the matter has delayed until March. Can't wait to read Barron's round table prediction for the rest of the year, for whatever it worth.
2012 is strange for sure. Risker bonds performed much better than treasury. Same goes for global equities with emerging and developed markets outpaced US. Will 2013 repeat itself??
We have never had a recession without the Fed tightening money supply first. That does not mean it could not happen, but it would be one of those "This time, it's different" events. I am not very keen on that. Unless the Fed abruptly changes its current course of 0% short-term rates, the possibility of a recession is there, but the chances are very slim. Historically the bond market has been the driver of these things.
Comments
http://www.learnbonds.com/6-market-predictions-from-bond-guru-jeff-gundlach/
To sum up:
10y T's: 3%
HY bonds: 6%
MBS: 6%
S&P 500: 5%
Nikkei, the big winnah at 20%, a chunk of which is already in the bank.
Sounds awfully New Normal-ish.
2012 is strange for sure. Risker bonds performed much better than treasury. Same goes for global equities with emerging and developed markets outpaced US. Will 2013 repeat itself??