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List the fund/etf you thought did better than you would expect and worse than you would expect. Please don't compare it to a benchmark thats too easy. Just personal opinion. Some managers consistently outperform benchmarks. Better: BALFX -2.07%, PRCFX -2.07% Worse: GQHPX -5.94%, SCHD -5.59%, LCORX -4.91%, FMSDX -4.02%
Making correction to my earlier posting. Better: ARTKX -6.3%, FMIJX -3.8%, FPACX -2.3%, CGBL 2.5%, RSIIX +0.0% Worse: BND -1.8%
This is more like a thought exercise. A 10 days performance varies quite a bit. However, I like to compare each fund/ETF to their benchmarks for the year. Additionally, tracking the fund’s ups and downs provide insights on its volatility.
RSIIX, for example, is the least volatile of all my bond funds and yet the YTD return as of 12/13/24 is 7.9%. Although BND is a broadly diversified bond index fund, its volatility is due its sensitivity to interest rates.
Cambrea’s TRTY did so poorly yesterday I dumped it today. Been struggling for a while. I had viewed it as a low-volatility fund-of-funds (about 40 different holdings). Enough!
Looking over my watchlist, can’t say anything surprised me yesterday. A tough day for sure. QQMNX, owned by some here, continues to impress. Do not own. Only fell .29% yesterday.
PRWCX “dropped” more than 10% yesterday. But obviously served up some doughnuts!
Yesterday, 18th Dec, when everything fell out of bed: As has been consistently the case, my "ordinary" junk bond funds outperformed my other stuff. They are my least volatile things.
Ten consecutive days down, in the Markets: (PRWCX just paid big for the year, so it's not fair to include it.) 4 of my six funds pay monthly, so that affects the statistical reportage.
WBALX -1.18% over the 10-day period. (pays divs, june and december.) But overall performance has been lackluster. *************** Now, on the 19th, I'm sticking with my single-stock picks. Those are long-term holds. And neither does it surprise me that BHB is bucking the upward direction of the Markets today--- which are RISING. (The other is L.P. ET.)
Mark, if that question is for me...the numbers I provided were the % drop in those 10 days. Not a % deviation from what I expected. Sven, yes this is a study of volatility and draw down from a universe of funds we watch under duress.
"10 consecutive days down" The 24/7 media is always looking to make more than it is. The DOW was down 10 days. Does any serious analyst look at the DOW? No, they watch the SP500.
When the DOW goes down over 1000 points, the media loves to say it was 4 digits down. mmm...what is 1000 points? less than 2.5%
Does 10 days matter? not so much, you got to look at much longer risk/reward.
Oh man, the Dow must matter to someone otherwise why is it still a market marker after all these years? Also I'm not so sure there are any serious analysts but there are motivated ones.
mark: Oh man, the Dow must matter to someone otherwise why is it still a market marker after all these years? Also I'm not so sure there are any serious analysts but there are motivated ones.
There are other market markers but any time someone says THE MARKET it is the SP500 or VTI.
YBB:Correlation between DJIA and SP500 is 95%
Correlation still doesn't mean equal. Example: One year (as of 12/22/2024)...The Dow = 14.7%...VOO = 27.7% (https://schrts.co/gIHYNViK)
I’m thinking of 10 consecutive months down during the ‘07-‘09 days.
There was a time in the past when the Dow mattered a lot more to investors than it does today. Not sure what caused the change. Once upon a time I jiggered my risk exposure inversely with the DJI and thought it worked reasonably well. But everything got foggy once the Dow got up over 30,000. Give it little heed today.
What changed? The Dow doesn't matter as much because the SP500 is a weighted cap index. The best performing companies take a bigger share which is based on the price. How many 401K have the SP500 or VTI and how many have the DOW Jones? I have never seen the Dow and I looked at dozens over the last 3 decades...and for a good reason.
Better than expected during that time Period: American Beacon AHL,Managed Futures AHLYX +2.22% Westwood Alternative Income WMNIX only down -.21% Pimco Preferred Sock Fund only down -.32%
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), sometimes referred to as the Dow or Dow 30, is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 30 large, publicly traded companies in the United States. Created in 1896, it is the oldest continuous barometer of the U.S. stock market, and one of the most widely quoted indicators of the stock market’s overall health. The DJIA takes the weighted average of the stock prices of the 30 component companies."
Text emphasis is mine. Not to shabby for an index nobody follows. Allegedly. Draw your own conclusions.
Could it be that it's too concentrated (30 companies) to be included in 401k's?
Another observation. Do Fidelity, Schwab, and Vanguard have their own Dow Jones funds? No, they don't. Do they have the SP500? YES.
Years ago, back when Vanguard was providing free financial plans, my mother had them work up a plan. Several years prior, Vanguard had introduced its own index funds (working with MSCI to develop more tax efficient indexes). Yet the plan used Vanguard 500 rather than its broader based, better performing (at that time) large cap index fund.
I asked the planner why. As near as I could decipher the response, it was because Vanguard 500 was better known/more popular. Financial decisions are often made by "popular demand" and not by objective analysis.
This is not to say I think the DJIA is especially representative of "the market". Just that looking at who is offering what is not the best way to validate that.
OTOH, which market index does Fidelity display by default on its home page? Clue: it's up 200 points today and it's not the NASDAQ.
The SP500 is used much more because it's just a better wider index period. You can go with VTI which is wider than VOO, but they are pretty close. There is a good reason why Bogle and Buffett said it many times too.
Comments
Worse: BAGIX (plain jane active mgd. bonds) -1.72%
Better: ARTKX -6.3%, FMIJX -3.8%, FPACX -2.3%, CGBL 2.5%, RSIIX +0.0%
Worse: BND -1.8%
This is more like a thought exercise. A 10 days performance varies quite a bit. However, I like to compare each fund/ETF to their benchmarks for the year. Additionally, tracking the fund’s ups and downs provide insights on its volatility.
RSIIX, for example, is the least volatile of all my bond funds and yet the YTD return as of 12/13/24 is 7.9%. Although BND is a broadly diversified bond index fund, its volatility is due its sensitivity to interest rates.
Looking over my watchlist, can’t say anything surprised me yesterday. A tough day for sure. QQMNX, owned by some here, continues to impress. Do not own. Only fell .29% yesterday.
PRWCX “dropped” more than 10% yesterday. But obviously served up some doughnuts!
As has been consistently the case, my "ordinary" junk bond funds outperformed my other stuff. They are my least volatile things.
Ten consecutive days down, in the Markets:
(PRWCX just paid big for the year, so it's not fair to include it.)
4 of my six funds pay monthly, so that affects the statistical reportage.
WBALX -1.18% over the 10-day period. (pays divs, june and december.) But overall performance has been lackluster.
***************
Now, on the 19th, I'm sticking with my single-stock picks. Those are long-term holds. And neither does it surprise me that BHB is bucking the upward direction of the Markets today--- which are RISING. (The other is L.P. ET.)
Sven, yes this is a study of volatility and draw down from a universe of funds we watch under duress.
The 24/7 media is always looking to make more than it is. The DOW was down 10 days.
Does any serious analyst look at the DOW? No, they watch the SP500.
When the DOW goes down over 1000 points, the media loves to say it was 4 digits down. mmm...what is 1000 points? less than 2.5%
Does 10 days matter? not so much, you got to look at much longer risk/reward.
For 5 years: The SP500 doubled the Dow (https://schrts.co/INEenHhQ)
There was a time in the past when the Dow mattered a lot more to investors than it does today. Not sure what caused the change. Once upon a time I jiggered my risk exposure inversely with the DJI and thought it worked reasonably well. But everything got foggy once the Dow got up over 30,000. Give it little heed today.
The Dow doesn't matter as much because the SP500 is a weighted cap index. The best performing companies take a bigger share which is based on the price.
How many 401K have the SP500 or VTI and how many have the DOW Jones? I have never seen the Dow and I looked at dozens over the last 3 decades...and for a good reason.
American Beacon AHL,Managed Futures AHLYX +2.22%
Westwood Alternative Income WMNIX only down -.21%
Pimco Preferred Sock Fund only down -.32%
Worse:
Vanguard Utilities ETF VPU -7.14%
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), sometimes referred to as the Dow or Dow 30, is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 30 large, publicly traded companies in the United States. Created in 1896, it is the oldest continuous barometer of the U.S. stock market, and one of the most widely quoted indicators of the stock market’s overall health. The DJIA takes the weighted average of the stock prices of the 30 component companies."
Text emphasis is mine. Not to shabby for an index nobody follows. Allegedly. Draw your own conclusions.
Could it be that it's too concentrated (30 companies) to be included in 401k's?
Do they have the SP500? YES.
IYY-iShares Dow Jones U.S. ETF = the SP500
What are the biggest weighted companies in the Dow (https://www.slickcharts.com/dowjones)
GS at 8+% while it's number 46 in SPY at just 0.35%
The more you look at the Dow, the more you see how it DOES NOT reflect the US stock market. It's a dinosaur.
You can drive in the Model T or today's vehicles.
Years ago, back when Vanguard was providing free financial plans, my mother had them work up a plan. Several years prior, Vanguard had introduced its own index funds (working with MSCI to develop more tax efficient indexes). Yet the plan used Vanguard 500 rather than its broader based, better performing (at that time) large cap index fund.
I asked the planner why. As near as I could decipher the response, it was because Vanguard 500 was better known/more popular. Financial decisions are often made by "popular demand" and not by objective analysis.
This is not to say I think the DJIA is especially representative of "the market". Just that looking at who is offering what is not the best way to validate that.
OTOH, which market index does Fidelity display by default on its home page? Clue: it's up 200 points today and it's not the NASDAQ.
There is a good reason why Bogle and Buffett said it many times too.