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Part 2 - Veteran portfolio manager and strategist Bob Doll reflects on what’s changed and what still works in the rapidly changing markets of his forty-plus-year career.
ONE INVESTMENT DOLL: QUALITY WITH A MOAT
Financial transactions: Mastercard Inc Class A (MA) Defense: Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) Technology: Apple Inc (AAPL)
On the publication of its 75th anniversary edition, The Intelligent Investor Editor Jason Zweig shares the timeless & still timely wisdom of what Warren Buffett calls “the best book on investing ever written.”
ACTION POINT READ THE NEW EDITION OF THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR
INVESTMENT CLASSIC
Benjamin Graham’s principles, process, and mindset work Teachings followed by Warren Buffett and other great value investors
Thank you, bee. Two of the new edition 3 books are already in place, as gifts, for two family members in their mid-20's who are already reading books about a family budget/spending and personal finance (investing). They're placing some monies into the 401k's offered via their employer. Both of these interviews have been emailed to them, as well. YEAH !!! for them.
Hi @Observant1 I've tried to help and push some folks over many years dealing with their bad habits, with their money . There have been a few success stories. I'm pleased about that. The below book has been a gift, over the years, on several occasions, as part of a wedding gift. Written in 1996, the book is more of a guide for personal finance; and one has to forget about the money values noted at the time. The book is more of a money habits guide; both the good and the bad. The thoughts still apply today. A snippet:
wealth is more likely the outcome of prudent spending and saving habits than high income or inherited wealth.
Warren Pierson, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Baird Advisors and portfolio manager of the top-rated Baird Aggregate Bond Fund, explains the newfound popularity of bonds.
Dec 14th Episode:
Great investor David Giroux has cut way back on stocks and increased bonds in his top performing T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund. He explains why stock prices are scary and bonds look better than most stocks in 2025.
David G is calling we are in a bubble territory for equities not seen during his career. Evidently, PRWCX is 5% underweight at 56% equities. I am guessing it has to do with the higher discount rate. May be he is betting 10 yr interest rates to stay higher.
Rick Rieder, blackrock, manages a huge amount of allocation assets. Let us find his latest musings about the market, rather than go just with David G’s rockstar status.
I must admit having listened to this episode of Compound, I do not remember Rick preferring bonds over equities or vice a versa. But I remember he talking about companies’ margin expansions and the growth drivers for US economy. He did say 18% return on equity and he is sour on long bonds (no news on long bonds). He talks more about macro but gave me the impression that he is not shying away from equities. (I could be hearing what I want to hear!). May be I should listen again but pl share your summary of Rick’s outlook on equities and fixed income from this video or from else where.
Didn't like long bonds. Doesn't think next year will be good (as the last 2 years) or bad for stocks as too many variables like tariffs, immigration etc... maybe 15%. Stay on the short side of the yield curve. I don't remember most of it either even though I just watched it. He pushed his ETF BINC with has a pretty good quality bonds but it's only been around since 5/2023. I compared it to RCTIX and PIMIX, it fits in between them but I like RCTIX better.
it is interesting to see what kind of leeway giroux & team have for % equity. it seems giroux cannot really decrease equity further (or can he?), and his shift to healthcare may already hit a self-imposed sector concentration ceiling as well.
his new fund, which i have shifted to in nontaxable accounts, has even lower levels for equity; but does anything really constitute a violation ?
shifted FROM prwcx in non- taxable accounts to giroux's new fund.
I am assuming you are talking about PRCFX, which I do not own. I only own PRWCX of his products.
You can check the prospectus for both funds to see if he has unlimited flexibility or if he has any prospectus imposed limits on how low or high he can get on equity percentage.
Interestingly, in the video he mentioned the 56% equity is option adjusted equity percentage. I am not sure how he is playing the options. As of 11/30, looks like the fund is about 60% equity, similar to at 10/31. He must have reduced equities in the last two weeks. As of 11/30, he has -ve number for straight options, which I am guessing is covered calls (but I could be wrong).
Rick Rieder in the other video mentioned about the fallacy of owning bonds as a hedge against equities in the current environment. His thought is that reduce equities if one thinks equity risk is too much.
If I were to extend that thought, I have to question the traditional reason why people owned 60/40 portfolios. I think one can still own the 60/40 portfolio but keep the 40 in the shorter end of the curve, which I think how many of the MFO members are playing. I hope that is how David Giroux is playing.
Saw Josh Brown there. Knows stuff. "Reformed Broker." And "Downtown Josh Brown." I'm instantly focused. Let's see what they all have to say..... Rieder: Focus AWAY from the noise. Dig deeper into substantial, deeper data, then make some judgments about where to put money. Makes sense. Batnick: how to separate Noise from Signal? Rieder: experience, age, learn over time who are the thoughtful CEOs.......Rieder looks at gobs of cash flow statements, too.
Whoa! Biggest 5 companies size = 407 other companies. That's nuts. And we're only 14 minutes into this...
Consumers who are driving the economy are senior citizens with no debt!? Raising interest rates just fattened their accounts...... Rieder: Inflation's not gonna fall any further. Bonds at 6+ percent next year looks good. Brown: but the real rate would be about half of that.
Hedging: If you're worried about it, then own less. (Brown.) Echoing Rieder via Kamansky.
Also heard Giroux on Wealthtrack. Hard to keep up with him, but he does reassure me as an investor in PRWCX and only since Friday, PRCFX. Ya, I am probably doubling-down on his favorite stocks, but, WOW: After the switch out of PRFDX into PRCFX, my break-down looks like THIS, all of a sudden: down to 42 stocks. 48 bonds 6 cash. 4 other.
After hearing both Giroux and Rieder, I suppose I'm in the right spot, for ME. An aside: Looks like BHB is at a plateau. Seriously looking at keeping it, but starting a new position in BRKL Brookline Bank. (Also owns BankRI in Rhode Island.) We will all see what happens under the incoming Pres. Admin. https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/XASE/BHB/quote https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/brkl/quote
I never did put money into BPRN (Princeton.) Glad I did not. They just bought a smaller bank. Big outlay for that.
I’d disagree that gold provides “stability.” 50% can lob-off the price of the metal in a matter of months. There have been 3-year stretches in our lifetimes during which miners have tanked 70% or more. And they call that ”stability”?
True - if man manages to annihilate himself gold would soar in value. But who would want spend it - and whatfor?
He's certainly got his plan and is sticking to it. I look around and see a new Cold War with Russia and China. And Latin America? The street gangs and drug/gun cartels have more influence than actual gummints. Though I hasten to add that a criminal tong will soon be in charge in the USA, too. I'm underweight equities now, these days.
Comments
ONE INVESTMENT
DOLL: QUALITY WITH A MOAT
Financial transactions: Mastercard Inc Class A (MA)
Defense: Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT)
Technology: Apple Inc (AAPL)
ACTION POINT
READ THE NEW EDITION OF THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR
INVESTMENT CLASSIC
Benjamin Graham’s principles, process, and mindset work
Teachings followed by Warren Buffett and other great value investors
Part 2 with Jason Zweig
Two of the new edition 3 books are already in place, as gifts, for two family members in their mid-20's who are already reading books about a family budget/spending and personal finance (investing). They're placing some monies into the 401k's offered via their employer.
Both of these interviews have been emailed to them, as well.
YEAH !!! for them.
That's very thoughtful of you!
I've tried to help and push some folks over many years dealing with their bad habits, with their money . There have been a few success stories. I'm pleased about that.
The below book has been a gift, over the years, on several occasions, as part of a wedding gift. Written in 1996, the book is more of a guide for personal finance; and one has to forget about the money values noted at the time. The book is more of a money habits guide; both the good and the bad. The thoughts still apply today.
A snippet: The Millionaire Next Door
Dec 14th Episode:
Rick Rieder, blackrock, manages a huge amount of allocation assets. Let us find his latest musings about the market, rather than go just with David G’s rockstar status.
it is interesting to see what kind of leeway giroux & team have for % equity.
it seems giroux cannot really decrease equity further (or can he?), and his shift to healthcare may already hit a self-imposed sector concentration ceiling as well.
his new fund, which i have shifted to in nontaxable accounts, has even lower levels for equity; but does anything really constitute a violation ?
shifted FROM prwcx in non- taxable accounts to giroux's new fund.
You can check the prospectus for both funds to see if he has unlimited flexibility or if he has any prospectus imposed limits on how low or high he can get on equity percentage.
Interestingly, in the video he mentioned the 56% equity is option adjusted equity percentage. I am not sure how he is playing the options. As of 11/30, looks like the fund is about 60% equity, similar to at 10/31. He must have reduced equities in the last two weeks. As of 11/30, he has -ve number for straight options, which I am guessing is covered calls (but I could be wrong).
https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/TRAIX?src=USIFundRedirect&adobe_mc_sdid=SDID=4A663477A0B547BE-4283858B3976C96B|MCORGID=D15D15F354F647770A4C98A4@AdobeOrg|TS=1732392621&adobe_mc_ref=https://www.google.com/
Rick Rieder in the other video mentioned about the fallacy of owning bonds as a hedge against equities in the current environment. His thought is that reduce equities if one thinks equity risk is too much.
If I were to extend that thought, I have to question the traditional reason why people owned 60/40 portfolios. I think one can still own the 60/40 portfolio but keep the 40 in the shorter end of the curve, which I think how many of the MFO members are playing. I hope that is how David Giroux is playing.
Whoa! Biggest 5 companies size = 407 other companies. That's nuts. And we're only 14 minutes into this...
Consumers who are driving the economy are senior citizens with no debt!? Raising interest rates just fattened their accounts...... Rieder: Inflation's not gonna fall any further.
Bonds at 6+ percent next year looks good. Brown: but the real rate would be about half of that.
Hedging: If you're worried about it, then own less. (Brown.) Echoing Rieder via Kamansky.
ETF BINC: trying to provide yield above an Index. (I just looked: 24% in derivatives. Not for me.)
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/binc/quote
THAT was a good listen.
down to 42 stocks.
48 bonds
6 cash.
4 other.
After hearing both Giroux and Rieder, I suppose I'm in the right spot, for ME.
An aside: Looks like BHB is at a plateau. Seriously looking at keeping it, but starting a new position in BRKL Brookline Bank. (Also owns BankRI in Rhode Island.) We will all see what happens under the incoming Pres. Admin.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/XASE/BHB/quote
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/brkl/quote
I never did put money into BPRN (Princeton.) Glad I did not. They just bought a smaller bank. Big outlay for that.
You couldn't find a better description of the path my wife and I traveled.
True - if man manages to annihilate himself gold would soar in value. But who would want spend it - and whatfor?