Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
Official Wall Street 2025 Predictions (I mean Guesses) Thread
"Markets will fluctuate." YES. My ongoing challenge is to keep 'my' fluctuations tempered. I need more ponder time today, to provide something reasonable.
From my wee brain. A lot of 'Never Never Land' I do believe in our future. Hopefully, we'll be able to maintain our 40% equity/60% bond-MM positions properly. I offer two quick area thoughts below. M&A can be played with some funds. I'm hoping that anything negative and widespread into U.S. equities, NOT HAPPENING, from whatever policies arrive after Jan. 20, 2025.
Kinda like being invited to a 'bonfire' and some folks keep piling more wood, and then you spy a 5 gallon can of kerosene sitting nearby and too close to the fire..... It's probably time to leave the area.
Tariffs:
Trump’s first stab at tariffs had a fiscal cost of $12 billion in federal farm aid in 2018 and $16 billion in 2019, funded using Section 5 authority of the Commodity Credit Corporation, according to the Congressional Research Service.
The 'CCC' is reportedly not favorable with Republicans and that they would prefer to eliminate its function. The 2018/2019 losses in only U.S. soybean farmers was a reduction of exports to China at the rate of -74%, thus the subsidies required to farmers. China moved to South America for the product and still remains there.
M & A, mergers and acquisitions: If there is a lot less regulation, one might expect a more 'wild west' in this area.
LASTLY, I remain skeptical about the track records of the 'big houses/big thinkers' presuming they know what's going to happen in the next 12 or 24 months.
Not quite a market prediction at this dinky linky. It's not so much that it's different this time. It's more the case that things aren't what they used to be. Check your assumptions at the door.
Discover what the 'big thinkers' were thinking in 2023 to 'guide' you, the investor, for the 2024 investing year. ONLY 4 minutes of your time. The whole video program is worth watching, but you may start just past the 5 minute mark, named PRICE TARGETS, for the good stuff. ENJOY
From Crash, re: 2025: Market returns will be sub-par, or at the low end of average. Bonds might be just as attractive as equities. The economy is balancing on a colossal mountain of gummint debt. Tax breaks, or extended tax breaks for those who need it least, will only add to the perversion.
I’ll go out on a limb and predict HSGFX (even with its new name) will continue its 15-year track record of losing money for investors.
On that note, how does one get away with being a permabear in a market that traditionally advances the vast majority of the time?! I'm not sure whether his existence is a greater testimony to his own ineptitude, or to the folly of the people who place their faith in him?! It seems akin to putting your money in a bottle and burying it in the backyard!
I’ll go out on a limb and predict HSGFX (even with its new name) will continue its 15-year track record of losing money for investors.
On that note, how does one get away with being a permabear in a market that traditionally advances the vast majority of the time?! I'm not sure whether his existence is a greater testimony to his own ineptitude, or to the folly of the people who place their faith in him?! It seems akin to putting your money in a bottle and burying it in the backyard!
It’s amazing that someone of his intelligence could do so poorly over 15 years. I’m a bit of a bear myself. But there are alternatives to going “all-in” on equities. Think long / short funds, hedged equities, high yield & floating rate bonds, convertibles, multi-asset funds. Cash earned little over that period, but with compounding you’d still be quite a bit ahead of HSGFX. I’d think short-term bonds should generate positive returns (in excess of cash) with very minimal downside risk going forward now that rates have risen from abysmal lows.
Excerpt: S&P 500 price targets Projected level for end-of-year 2025
Oppenheimer 7,100 Wells Fargo 7,007 Deutsche Bank 7,000 Yardeni Research 7,000 DataTrek Research 6,840 Societe Generale 6,750 BMO 6,700 Bank of America 6,666 Fundstrat 6,600 Barclays 6,600 RBC 6,600 Ned Davis Research 6,600 CFRA 6,585 Morgan Stanley 6,500 Goldman Sachs 6,500 JPMorgan 6,500 Citi 6,500 UBS 6,400 Stifel* 5,500 BCA Research 4,450 Note: Stifel gave a prediction in the "mid-5,000s" Chart: Andy Kiersz/Business InsiderSource: Bloomberg
Wall Street—as is its way—is expecting a solid, if unspectacular, year. Market strategists, on average, predict that the S&P 500 will hit around 6500 by the end of 2025, up 7% from a recent 6060, according to Bloomberg data. More than half of strategists have targets between 6500 and 6700, although a few outliers predict a bigger gain or sharp decline.
The consensus forecast seems reasonable based on current earnings expectations. Wall Street is looking for S&P 500 earnings to grow by 15% next year, to $273.25, according to FactSet data. If earnings rise 13% in 2026, to $309.37, dropping the valuation by half a point would put the index at just over 6700 a share, up 10% from Wednesday’s close. Minor adjustments to the multiple or estimates account for most of the differences among strategists’ forecasts.
Comments
Staying with the topic:
Jefferies says the Russell 2000 will reach 2,715 by 2025 year-end SA article
My ongoing challenge is to keep 'my' fluctuations tempered.
I need more ponder time today, to provide something reasonable.
Party on ..
Does make you wonder why anybody would invest in cash at 5%?
You can now buy with confidence.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fundstrats-tom-lee-is-no-longer-one-of-wall-streets-biggest-bulls-why-hes-cautious-on-2025-8248c01f
I offer two quick area thoughts below. M&A can be played with some funds. I'm hoping that anything negative and widespread into U.S. equities, NOT HAPPENING, from whatever policies arrive after Jan. 20, 2025.
Kinda like being invited to a 'bonfire' and some folks keep piling more wood, and then you spy a 5 gallon can of kerosene sitting nearby and too close to the fire..... It's probably time to leave the area.
Tariffs: The 'CCC' is reportedly not favorable with Republicans and that they would prefer to eliminate its function.
The 2018/2019 losses in only U.S. soybean farmers was a reduction of exports to China at the rate of -74%, thus the subsidies required to farmers. China moved to South America for the product and still remains there.
M & A, mergers and acquisitions: If there is a lot less regulation, one might expect a more 'wild west' in this area.
LASTLY, I remain skeptical about the track records of the 'big houses/big thinkers' presuming they know what's going to happen in the next 12 or 24 months.
for those that want some idea of what your own PAID professionals think :
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/how-big-is-the-equity-risk-premium
e.g., vanguard is ~4th most pessimistic asset manager regarding their own forecasts on the u.s. equity premium.
i personally avoid indexing, and prefer alternatives to CAPE (like hussman's) when comparing historical valuations betwixt\between nations.
ENJOY
Excerpt:
S&P 500 price targets
Projected level for end-of-year 2025
Oppenheimer
7,100
Wells Fargo
7,007
Deutsche Bank
7,000
Yardeni Research
7,000
DataTrek Research
6,840
Societe Generale
6,750
BMO
6,700
Bank of America
6,666
Fundstrat
6,600
Barclays
6,600
RBC
6,600
Ned Davis Research
6,600
CFRA
6,585
Morgan Stanley
6,500
Goldman Sachs
6,500
JPMorgan
6,500
Citi
6,500
UBS
6,400
Stifel*
5,500
BCA Research
4,450
Note: Stifel gave a prediction in the "mid-5,000s"
Chart: Andy Kiersz/Business InsiderSource: Bloomberg
Excerpt:
Wall Street—as is its way—is expecting a solid, if unspectacular, year. Market strategists, on average, predict that the S&P 500 will hit around 6500 by the end of 2025, up 7% from a recent 6060, according to Bloomberg data. More than half of strategists have targets between 6500 and 6700, although a few outliers predict a bigger gain or sharp decline.
The consensus forecast seems reasonable based on current earnings expectations. Wall Street is looking for S&P 500 earnings to grow by 15% next year, to $273.25, according to FactSet data. If earnings rise 13% in 2026, to $309.37, dropping the valuation by half a point would put the index at just over 6700 a share, up 10% from Wednesday’s close. Minor adjustments to the multiple or estimates account for most of the differences among strategists’ forecasts.
This week’s Barron’s cover story (also linked/ referenced by @Stillers above)
Here’s the cover art. Maybe title it “Going, Going, Gone!” ?