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"A closely watched report on US inflation showed consumer price increases cooled further in June, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Thursday morning."
CPI/PPI release dates have been market movers all year, but usually not so much until their actual release dates and the aftermath, and usually to the benefit of LCG, Tech and MAG7, NOT the RUT.
If it was a run up yesterday, investors (Oopsy!) missed the target.
To wit... Yesterday, RUT was UP fractionally while and NASDAQ and S&P were UP ~1%. Today, RUT is UP ~3% while NASDAQ is DOWN ~1%.
There was a discussion yesterday about where new SC money would come from. One analyst contended that it surely would NOT come from LCG, but today's market action APPEARS TO SUGGEST maybe some of it (at least) will.
NOTE: We've seen these one- and two-day "rotations" into SC before and to year-to-date they have not lasted much beyond that.
The $64K question: Is this time different?
FWIW, we pared Growth, Tech, MAG7 and overall market exposure at the end of June, parking proceeds in FZDXX for future re-deployment. We have a SC OEF in the cross hairs for some of those proceeds but gonna wait a while to see if the SC pop is different this time, or just another head fake.
Given the magnitude of the morning moves in the respective indexes and sectors, I tuned into some discussions about today's action.
Seeming consensus: Wait and see. This move could run this direction for a month or two, but the key questions posed by the analysts were:
Will SCs/Value actually replace the existing market leaders, and if so, for how long?
Will there be one rate cut or a rate cut cycle (multiple cuts). If only the former, the answer to the first question appears to be um, no/not very long.
Thanks @BaluBalu Tying back to @Derf's OP, whatever Wednesday's market action was all about more than compensated us for today's 0.8% loss. Nice portfolio test today and it did better than we were expecting. More broadly, we're still UP 2.2% MTD, in a month when we were not expecting much at all in positive stock market returns. It's early though - more drops may be out there this month!
FWIW, RUT futures are doing better than the other major indexes at the moment. Not even a WAG though at what happens tomorrow, with PPI and the start of earnings. We did our risk reduction trades at the end of June so trying to just sit and watch as a pivot or whatever else plays out.
Happy though to state my "market sentiment and guesses" here or elsewhere, noting that of the latter will be the WAG variety!
"A closely watched report on US inflation showed consumer price increases cooled further in June, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Thursday morning."
Well I vote yes. What do you have to put forth ?
I'll plead ignorance, or naivete, whichever helps my case.
Do you mean to imply that some folks outside of the Supreme Court, Congress, and the Executive Branch had advance knowledge?
Seems like everyone else has been camping on anticipation of these numbers all year. I don't know that it has done them a lot of good.
Was it front running , following the herd, or just Mr. Market on Wed. ? Thursday speaks for it's self ! I ventured to see how bad the market treated me & was surprised to be up. Have a good evening @WABAC, Derf
Comments
CPI/PPI release dates have been market movers all year, but usually not so much until their actual release dates and the aftermath, and usually to the benefit of LCG, Tech and MAG7, NOT the RUT.
If it was a run up yesterday, investors (Oopsy!) missed the target.
To wit...
Yesterday, RUT was UP fractionally while and NASDAQ and S&P were UP ~1%.
Today, RUT is UP ~3% while NASDAQ is DOWN ~1%.
There was a discussion yesterday about where new SC money would come from. One analyst contended that it surely would NOT come from LCG, but today's market action APPEARS TO SUGGEST maybe some of it (at least) will.
EDIT:
I typed the above post then stumbled onto this article:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/10/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
NOTE: We've seen these one- and two-day "rotations" into SC before and to year-to-date they have not lasted much beyond that.
The $64K question: Is this time different?
FWIW, we pared Growth, Tech, MAG7 and overall market exposure at the end of June, parking proceeds in FZDXX for future re-deployment. We have a SC OEF in the cross hairs for some of those proceeds but gonna wait a while to see if the SC pop is different this time, or just another head fake.
Seeming consensus: Wait and see. This move could run this direction for a month or two, but the key questions posed by the analysts were:
Will SCs/Value actually replace the existing market leaders, and if so, for how long?
Will there be one rate cut or a rate cut cycle (multiple cuts). If only the former, the answer to the first question appears to be um, no/not very long.
Tomorrow is bank earnings release start. Jamie Dimon is always the most listened to CEO and nobody expect him to paint a rosy picture.
If @Derf is OK, let us use this thread to post market sentiment and guesses during this Pivot.
Edit: I see @Catch22 already started the relevant thread
Tying back to @Derf's OP, whatever Wednesday's market action was all about more than compensated us for today's 0.8% loss. Nice portfolio test today and it did better than we were expecting. More broadly, we're still UP 2.2% MTD, in a month when we were not expecting much at all in positive stock market returns. It's early though - more drops may be out there this month!
FWIW, RUT futures are doing better than the other major indexes at the moment. Not even a WAG though at what happens tomorrow, with PPI and the start of earnings. We did our risk reduction trades at the end of June so trying to just sit and watch as a pivot or whatever else plays out.
Happy though to state my "market sentiment and guesses" here or elsewhere, noting that of the latter will be the WAG variety!
Do you mean to imply that some folks outside of the Supreme Court, Congress, and the Executive Branch had advance knowledge?
Seems like everyone else has been camping on anticipation of these numbers all year. I don't know that it has done them a lot of good.
Have a good evening @WABAC, Derf
Sounds like your dreams won't be disturbed by Mr. Market tonight.