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I've viewed the results of a study which indicated stock markets in more democratic countries produced higher long-term returns. Although I didn't delve into the details of this study, it seems logical there would be considerable divergence between the least / most democratic nations. FRDM has existed for only 5 years but it has trounced EEM during this short time period. I believe much of the fund's performance can be attributed to excluding China. Link
Smart, convincing. She knows what she's talking about. She's tuned into what capitalism is all about: self-interest and greed. Words we never use. But making money while operating under an autocratic regime is always going to be hobbled by the political realities.
How about an article I saw on Seeking Alpha about Chinese AI being trained on the writings of President Xi?!! Yikes (sorry….seems sequitur to the above topic)
EDIT TO ADD: No other reactions? Perth Tolle sounds quite savvy to me. The fund is performing well, though she's not listed as a Manager. She's running the company itself, I suppose?
Since taking over T. Rowe Price’s Global Technology Fund Dom Rizzo has outperformed his competitors and market benchmarks. He explains why AI was and will be a major emphasis.
MFS created Massachusetts Investors' Trust in 1924 as the first open-end mutual fund. Russ Kinnel discusses the mutual fund industry along with ETFs.
Mutual Fund Advantages better for less-liquid areas like high-yield, muni bonds, EM, and small-caps
ETF Advantages more tax efficient can be traded all day (excessive trading can be detrimental)
Big fund companies are in a really strong position. Mr. Kinnel is not concerned that big fund companies (Vanguard, Blackrock, Fidelity) are becoming larger on an absolute or relative basis.
Outstanding managers in equities, bonds, or niche areas (high yield was mentioned) will also be in fine shape.
The biggest threat to the mutual fund industry is for mediocre active fund shops which try to offer something for everyone but aren't great at anything.
Actively managed ETFs are a growth area which will experience more innovation. Mr. Kinnel is not a fan of crypto ETFs.
Kinnel's one investment for a long-term diversified portfolio was Janus Henderson Small Cap Value (JDSAX).
Here's an interesting article on a previous week's guest (Bitcoin Goes Mainstream):
Given crypto’s extreme volatility, instead of sourcing from broad equities, an investor could pull from the riskiest areas of the equity sleeve like innovative growth companies. One might assume that the cryptocurrencies have a higher correlation to riskier stocks. However, bitcoin and ether’s correlation to the broad growth index from July 2020 through June 2024 is similar to the broad global index, ranging from 0.33 to 0.82, so this avenue likely wouldn’t result in a different outcome.
Bitcoin and ether’s galactic returns may be compelling to investors, but their volatility can have a colossal impact on a standard 60/40 portfolio, and diversifying within crypto still leads to a heightened risk profile. Their newfound accessibility through ETFs has many investors eager to add one or both cryptocurrencies to their portfolios, but one must be aware of how they change the risk composition
Thank you for the summary, @Observant1. In more recent years, we found ourselves using more ETFs (mainly passive funds). The new active managed stocks and bonds are attractive vehicles with lower expensive ratios without minimum investment, and we have added them too.
Mary Beth Franklin discusses Social Security's Health and Outlook: Social Security guru Mary Beth Franklin discusses the program’s financial challenges and outlook, plus individual strategies to maximize its benefits.
Bill Wilby, former portfolio manager for Oppenheimer Global Fund, is the featured guest this week. He's concerned about "unknown unknowns." Specifically, his major areas of concern are Private Equity (PE) and Private Credit. S&P 500 leverage ratio is 1.6 while PE leverage ratio may be 5 or 6 (difficult to discern). PE returns may decline significantly in the next 3 or 4 years. Backward-looking endowments/pension funds will probably decide to pull back if this happens. Wilby doesn't think this is a 2007/2008 caliber problem but doesn't know for certain since data is lacking.
Consuelo asked Mr. Wilby how investing has changed over the past 20 years. Much more money is being run in quantitative strategies. The public market has shrunk relative to the private market. US debt to GDP ratio was probably 50% or 60% but is now at 120%. The Fed balance sheet has grown 10 times during the past 20 years! Not surprisingly, the market cap of gold (hedge against debasement?) has gone up 10 times as well.
Wilby owns individual stocks and cash (~70%/30% mix) while avoiding bonds in his personal portfolio. His one investment for a diversified portfolio is AMSL which he also recommended last year. I really enjoyed this episode. https://wealthtrack.com/great-investors-retirement-portfolio/
Reason for not owning bonds - Bill does not think the Fed will be in an aggressive easing mode, unless unkown, unkowns become real.
He looks for secular revenue growth as a percentage of GDP. Looks for long term growth themes and sites AI! He is primarily in Tech, HC, smattering of Energy and Financials (MC, JPM, FDHC (India)).
Important stuff. His are brass. Good for him. His name is written in the Book of Life. EDIT TO ADD: We've just lately had an after-church workshop to assist us in planning funeral or memorial arrangements for ourselves. Also, there are some parameters. At my place of worship, not anything and everything is acceptable. But of course, that's not an issue, or I'd be attending somewhere else.
Making those kinds of specific plans are extremely helpful to one's surviving family, too.
Comments
produced higher long-term returns. Although I didn't delve into the details of this study,
it seems logical there would be considerable divergence between the least / most democratic nations.
FRDM has existed for only 5 years but it has trounced EEM during this short time period.
I believe much of the fund's performance can be attributed to excluding China.
Link
EDIT TO ADD: No other reactions? Perth Tolle sounds quite savvy to me. The fund is performing well, though she's not listed as a Manager. She's running the company itself, I suppose?
https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/quote/dashboard/composition?symbol=FRDM
P.S. Warren Buffet sold his entire TSM stake in late 2023 even though he held that in less than several months.
https://wealthtrack.com/warren-buffetts-investment-evolution-whats-changed-what-hasnt-over-five-decades/
WealthTrack
part 1:
richard-bernstein-on-successful-investment-themes-of-the-past-and-his-favorite-one-now/
part 2:
key-investment-lessons-of-the-last-20-years-from-noted-strategist-richard-bernstein/
us-leading-indicators
Answers from Morningstar’s mutual fund maven, Russ Kinnel.
https://wealthtrack.com/as-mutual-funds-mark-their-100th-anniversary-do-they-still-work-for-investors/
MFS created Massachusetts Investors' Trust in 1924 as the first open-end mutual fund.
Russ Kinnel discusses the mutual fund industry along with ETFs.
Mutual Fund Advantages
better for less-liquid areas like high-yield, muni bonds, EM, and small-caps
ETF Advantages
more tax efficient
can be traded all day (excessive trading can be detrimental)
Big fund companies are in a really strong position.
Mr. Kinnel is not concerned that big fund companies (Vanguard, Blackrock, Fidelity)
are becoming larger on an absolute or relative basis.
Outstanding managers in equities, bonds, or niche areas
(high yield was mentioned) will also be in fine shape.
The biggest threat to the mutual fund industry is for mediocre active fund shops
which try to offer something for everyone but aren't great at anything.
Actively managed ETFs are a growth area which will experience more innovation.
Mr. Kinnel is not a fan of crypto ETFs.
Kinnel's one investment for a long-term diversified portfolio
was Janus Henderson Small Cap Value (JDSAX).
Here's an interesting article on a previous week's guest (Bitcoin Goes Mainstream): are-two-cryptos-better-than-one-6040-portfolio?
Mary Beth Franklin discusses Social Security's Health and Outlook:
Social Security guru Mary Beth Franklin discusses the program’s financial challenges and outlook, plus individual strategies to maximize its benefits.
Her website offers free SS tools:
https://marybethfranklin.com/
Are we experiencing a "Quality Bubble"?
He's concerned about "unknown unknowns."
Specifically, his major areas of concern are Private Equity (PE) and Private Credit.
S&P 500 leverage ratio is 1.6 while PE leverage ratio may be 5 or 6 (difficult to discern).
PE returns may decline significantly in the next 3 or 4 years.
Backward-looking endowments/pension funds will probably decide to pull back if this happens.
Wilby doesn't think this is a 2007/2008 caliber problem but doesn't know for certain since data is lacking.
Consuelo asked Mr. Wilby how investing has changed over the past 20 years.
Much more money is being run in quantitative strategies.
The public market has shrunk relative to the private market.
US debt to GDP ratio was probably 50% or 60% but is now at 120%.
The Fed balance sheet has grown 10 times during the past 20 years!
Not surprisingly, the market cap of gold (hedge against debasement?) has gone up 10 times as well.
Wilby owns individual stocks and cash (~70%/30% mix) while avoiding bonds in his personal portfolio.
His one investment for a diversified portfolio is AMSL which he also recommended last year.
I really enjoyed this episode.
https://wealthtrack.com/great-investors-retirement-portfolio/
Two points are of particular concern.
Reason for not owning bonds - Bill does not think the Fed will be in an aggressive easing mode, unless unkown, unkowns become real.
He looks for secular revenue growth as a percentage of GDP. Looks for long term growth themes and sites AI! He is primarily in Tech, HC, smattering of Energy and Financials (MC, JPM, FDHC (India)).
Also,
Previous Clements interview:
EDIT TO ADD: We've just lately had an after-church workshop to assist us in planning funeral or memorial arrangements for ourselves. Also, there are some parameters. At my place of worship, not anything and everything is acceptable. But of course, that's not an issue, or I'd be attending somewhere else.
Making those kinds of specific plans are extremely helpful to one's surviving family, too.