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I have had NVDA since 8/22. Sold 1/3 of it in 4/23 since it was over my 3% max for individual stock. We are over that limit again. What to do? YTD +2.5%.
Keep it (let your winners run) IMHO... I've been reading lately AI is still in it's infancy and NVDA could continue to skyrocket BUT don't blame me if it doesn't. ;^) I don't like stop loss limit orders but if it gets WAY above your sell price set a stop loss limit order at your sell price.
It's hard to do sometimes but the ole "let your winners run" makes sense. I'm fighting that now with Amzn. I was letting GOOG run and temporarily (I hope) it's not working out.
I have had NVDA since 8/22. Sold 1/3 of it in 4/23 since it was over my 3% max for individual stock. We are over that limit again. What to do? YTD +2.5%.
Old proverb - “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” Really depends on your age and risk tolerance.
I’m experimenting with balancing out my single stock holding with a short-term bond ETF to control volatility. Both are at 5% of portfolio. If the stock rises sharply $$ is moved into the bond fund to balance things out. If the stock falls sharply $$ moves the other way and back into the stock. Went to this approach around the end of ‘23. Seems to work as planned. Couple mornings ago the stock fell 10% right out of the gate and I was able to move some money into it.
"After all these years of doing this" (thanks Jimmy Buffett, RIP) easily the best (looking and potential upside) portfolio we've ever had.
SAFE component of FZDXX/VMRXX and 5-yr CD ladder with 5+% APY.
80/20 stock/bond portion of about a baker's dozen OEFs (70% Active/30% Passive) and (recently added) GOOGL UP in aggregate ~3% YTD, lead by FSELX (Atta boy, NVDA!), FDSVX and PRWAX. PRWCX currently underperforming (partner in crime) FBALX but Giroux will do that on brief, interim bases.
Bottom Line? As Jimmy B once said, "Well, I'm still here. Didn't have to go to rehab, and I'm not broke."
As a person who has largely invested through open end mutual funds for 40 years with only holding a handful of individual stocks during that time, when I am researching mutual funds I am used to "total return" figures from mutual fund companies and M*.
Individual stock returns listed on M* and other sites(YTD, various average annual time periods) would be less annual dividends, correct?
”Individual stock returns listed on M* and other sites(YTD, various average annual time periods) would be less annual dividends, correct?”
@Roy - I think you are incorrect. Pretty sure those M* annual return numbers (and those from similar sources) reflect average returns with dividends reinvested. Also, the numbers reflect the effect of compounding - especially important in the multi-year numbers. I’m less certain when it comes to graphs at Google & elsewhere. ISTM those are raw NAV numbers w/o dividends factored in. Fund prospectuses also provide a similar presentation of a fund’s return out to 10 years. ISTM they are required to provide that data. (Woe is Hussman)
Here’s what Chat GPT answered when I asked using Bing’s website:
”Published mutual fund returns typically do include the effect of reinvested dividends and compounding. Let me explain further:
1. Reinvested Dividends: When you invest in a mutual fund, some of the companies held within that fund may pay out dividends to their shareholders. If you choose to reinvest these dividends, they are used to purchase additional shares of the mutual fund. The reinvested dividends contribute to the overall growth of your investment over time. Therefore, the published returns of a mutual fund usually account for the reinvestment of dividends.
2. Compounding: Compounding refers to the process where your investment earns returns, and those returns themselves generate additional returns. In the context of mutual funds, compounding occurs when both the capital appreciation (increase in the fund's value) and reinvested dividends work together to boost your overall return. Published returns typically reflect this compounding effect.
3. Total Return: The total return of a mutual fund includes both capital gains (price appreciation) and any income generated (such as dividends). It considers the reinvestment of dividends and the compounding effect. This total return is what you'll find in published reports or when researching mutual funds.
In summary: When you see published mutual fund returns, they already incorporate the impact of reinvested dividends and the power of compounding. Keep in mind that fees and expenses may also affect the actual returns you receive. Always review the fund's prospectus and consult with a financial advisor for personalized advice.”
Feb. 10, '24: Another week, another gazillion dollars down the toilet in the federal budget... Taking @hank's advice, at long last: added a bond ETF in taxable, FALN. The amount in there is still miniscule. My other bond funds are in the retirement side of things.
BHB got clobbered last week, but recovered quite a bit on Friday. BHB and ET are neck-and-neck to claim biggest spot in portfolio. 4.76 vs 4.74% of total.
Performance ytd: I rediscovered an email I sent to myself with end-of-2023 numbers. Today, the portfolio is down by just a fraction in 2024.
Volatility! Range-bound volatility! Disgusting! The next time PRNEX hints at an upward move, it will be liquidated and redeployed. Suck-hole fund, that has been. ********* Super Bowl weather here: 78, sunny, light winds. But of course, the game starts just after lunch, here.
Plain old vanilla balanced funds (with good management of course) are doing pretty good YTD. CGBL (Capital Group Core Balanced ETF) is up ~3%. Other notables, PRWCX 2.4%, FPACX 1.8%. Even more conservative PRCFX is up 1.2%.
All I can say is 6 weeks is an awfully short time to measure any portfolio’s performance.
The earlier “near certainty” of a Fed rate cut in March has been thrown into serious question in recent weeks. Markets lately seem obsessed with that possibility - though trading has been relatively light in recent days. No disrespect intended - but I wouldn’t believe a thing that comes out of Powell’s mouth, and you shouldn’t either.
@MikeM. Thanks for the run-down. LCORX is also up around 3% YTD - though technically not a “balanced” fund. Not sure those numbers mean much however … . Nice bunch here. Always glad when somebody makes money. -
@Crash said, “ Performance ytd: I rediscovered an email I sent to myself with end-of-2023 numbers. Today, the portfolio is down by just a fraction in 2024.
It is enlightening sometimes when I happen across an old digital save of a 3-6 month old portfolio and can compare positioning and values back then with present day. A bit of a “time capsule.”
Well, I might offer that officials in positions like his always always always speak in generalities. So, one must learn the Art of listening for what's NOT said, and to audibly "read between the lines." Like trying to parse an official Vatican pronouncement. I was a seminarian, and I used to say: "why don't they just say what they MEAN?" It's been this way forever, and it's not going to change. ORK.
I should have said: “Powell holds his cards close to hus his vest.”
I don’t consider him inherently dishonest - just not completely transparent in revealing what he really thinks or what the Fed might do next. “Fed-Speak” has always been a bit of a mind-game. They’d prefer to impact investor attitudes and behavior thru words (when possible) rather than by overt tangible action. So often it seems a game of ”Yin & Yang” . It’s humorous / entertaining the extent to which the press seizes on his every word, amplifying it in the retelling.
My boring, bond-heavy portfolio is up 3.26% YTD, all ETFs or MFs. I like normalized interest rates.
@Low_Tech, that is really good for a bond heavy portfolio. I'm having a hard time finding bond funds returning anywhere near 3.2% YTD. It must be the "equity-light" side of your portfolio driving that YTD return (?)
My boring, bond-heavy portfolio is up 3.26% YTD, all ETFs or MFs. I like normalized interest rates.
@Low_Tech, that is really good for a bond heavy portfolio. I'm having a hard time finding bond funds returning anywhere near 3.2% YTD. It must be the "equity-light" side of your portfolio driving that YTD return (?)
Mike: What's driving it (those returning more than 3.26%) are CEFs GOF (10.45%), PDI (9.43%), Janus Balanced JABAX (4.3%) and SPY (5.5%) (all numbers are from M*). Those are four funds out of a total of eight.
My retirement portfolio AA is 38/62. FWIW, I'm more interested in income than market prices or total return. But I do check TR, usually only quarterly, but saw this thread and thought I'd check it.
I’m afreaid @Low_Tech is “behind the curve” however. Fixed income was in vogue a year ago when money market funds hit the “astronomical” 5% mark. Today we’ve moved on to the “Mag7” - some of which have tripled or quadrupled over the past year, dwarfing the measly return from fixed income.
Let’s get with it!
Nice going as @MikeM said. Regarding fixed income, as Yogi Berra used to say in an old TV commercial, “and they give ya your money back!” (or at least most of it)
I’m afreaid @Low_Tech is “behind the curve” however. Fixed income was in vogue a year ago when money market funds hit the “astronomical” 5% mark. Today we’ve moved on to the “Mag7” - some of which have tripled or quadrupled over the past year, dwarfing the measly return from fixed income.
Let’s get with it!
Nice going as @MikeM said. Regarding fixed income, as Yogi Berra used to say in an old TV commercial, “and they give ya your money back!” (or at least most of it)
Thanks.
I should have mentioned, 11% of my PF is in a money fund earning 5.2x %. Pretty stodgy, so maybe I'll sell everything and put it all in Bitcoin.
......Finally broke through the range I was bound into, by just +0.7%. Still not as high as the ending 2023 numbers, by just a hair. Progress. Otherwise, today was one of those days. A voice crying in the wilderness: "Nothing makes sense!" And no one cares. Sucky pukey stinky poopies.
You guys put the jinx on the markets bragging about your YTD returns. You should never do that, particularly this early in the year.
"Markets always overreact, both to the up-side and down-side, without fail." ---Crash. So, WHAM! A putridly odorous day, today. Down -1.24%. This too shall pass. Time is our friend.
Comments
I'm at 1+% using only 2-3 bond funds.
I’m experimenting with balancing out my single stock holding with a short-term bond ETF to control volatility. Both are at 5% of portfolio. If the stock rises sharply $$ is moved into the bond fund to balance things out. If the stock falls sharply $$ moves the other way and back into the stock. Went to this approach around the end of ‘23. Seems to work as planned. Couple mornings ago the stock fell 10% right out of the gate and I was able to move some money into it.
SAFE component of FZDXX/VMRXX and 5-yr CD ladder with 5+% APY.
80/20 stock/bond portion of about a baker's dozen OEFs (70% Active/30% Passive) and (recently added) GOOGL UP in aggregate ~3% YTD, lead by FSELX (Atta boy, NVDA!), FDSVX and PRWAX. PRWCX currently underperforming (partner in crime) FBALX but Giroux will do that on brief, interim bases.
Bottom Line? As Jimmy B once said,
"Well, I'm still here. Didn't have to go to rehab, and I'm not broke."
Individual stock returns listed on M* and other sites(YTD, various average annual time periods) would be less annual dividends, correct?
Here’s what Chat GPT answered when I asked using Bing’s website:
”Published mutual fund returns typically do include the effect of reinvested dividends and compounding. Let me explain further:
1. Reinvested Dividends:
When you invest in a mutual fund, some of the companies held within that fund may pay out dividends to their shareholders. If you choose to reinvest these dividends, they are used to purchase additional shares of the mutual fund. The reinvested dividends contribute to the overall growth of your investment over time. Therefore, the published returns of a mutual fund usually account for the reinvestment of dividends.
2. Compounding:
Compounding refers to the process where your investment earns returns, and those returns themselves generate additional returns. In the context of mutual funds, compounding occurs when both the capital appreciation (increase in the fund's value) and reinvested dividends work together to boost your overall return. Published returns typically reflect this compounding effect.
3. Total Return:
The total return of a mutual fund includes both capital gains (price appreciation) and any income generated (such as dividends). It considers the reinvestment of dividends and the compounding effect. This total return is what you'll find in published reports or when researching mutual funds.
In summary: When you see published mutual fund returns, they already incorporate the impact of reinvested dividends and the power of compounding. Keep in mind that fees and expenses may also affect the actual returns you receive. Always review the fund's prospectus and consult with a financial advisor for personalized advice.”
Taking @hank's advice, at long last: added a bond ETF in taxable, FALN. The amount in there is still miniscule. My other bond funds are in the retirement side of things.
BHB got clobbered last week, but recovered quite a bit on Friday. BHB and ET are neck-and-neck to claim biggest spot in portfolio. 4.76 vs 4.74% of total.
Performance ytd: I rediscovered an email I sent to myself with end-of-2023 numbers. Today, the portfolio is down by just a fraction in 2024.
Volatility! Range-bound volatility! Disgusting! The next time PRNEX hints at an upward move, it will be liquidated and redeployed. Suck-hole fund, that has been.
*********
Super Bowl weather here: 78, sunny, light winds. But of course, the game starts just after lunch, here.
The earlier “near certainty” of a Fed rate cut in March has been thrown into serious question in recent weeks. Markets lately seem obsessed with that possibility - though trading has been relatively light in recent days. No disrespect intended - but I wouldn’t believe a thing that comes out of Powell’s mouth, and you shouldn’t either.
@MikeM. Thanks for the run-down. LCORX is also up around 3% YTD - though technically not a “balanced” fund. Not sure those numbers mean much however … . Nice bunch here. Always glad when somebody makes money.
-
@Crash said, “ Performance ytd: I rediscovered an email I sent to myself with end-of-2023 numbers. Today, the portfolio is down by just a fraction in 2024.
It is enlightening sometimes when I happen across an old digital save of a 3-6 month old portfolio and can compare positioning and values back then with present day. A bit of a “time capsule.”
hushis vest.”I don’t consider him inherently dishonest - just not completely transparent in revealing what he really thinks or what the Fed might do next. “Fed-Speak” has always been a bit of a mind-game. They’d prefer to impact investor attitudes and behavior thru words (when possible) rather than by overt tangible action. So often it seems a game of ”Yin & Yang” . It’s humorous / entertaining the extent to which the press seizes on his every word, amplifying it in the retelling.
My retirement portfolio AA is 38/62. FWIW, I'm more interested in income than market prices or total return. But I do check TR, usually only quarterly, but saw this thread and thought I'd check it.
Let’s get with it!
Nice going as @MikeM said. Regarding fixed income, as Yogi Berra used to say in an old TV commercial, “and they give ya your money back!” (or at least most of it)
I should have mentioned, 11% of my PF is in a money fund earning 5.2x %. Pretty stodgy, so maybe I'll sell everything and put it all in Bitcoin.
So, WHAM! A putridly odorous day, today. Down -1.24%. This too shall pass. Time is our friend.