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Forsyth in Barron’s: “There will be growth in the spring.” (Nada)

hank
edited January 14 in Fund Discussions
Excerpt and photo from Article: ”Would Big Rate Cuts Really Help Stocks? History Offers Warnings.” - by Randall Forsyth in “Up and Down Wall Street” - Barron’s, January 15, 2024 issue

”There will be cuts in the spring, to paraphrase Chauncey Gardner in the classic satire film Being There. He was, in truth, Chance, the gardener, a dimwitted savant played brilliantly by Peter Sellers. His simple utterances about growth in the spring and other matters horticultural were taken by Washington’s elite, including the president, to be profound statements about the economy.”

Typically a skeptic, Forsyth doesn’t buy the growth argument advanced by Chauncey. It’s a complicated analysis citing prominent economists. But, in a nutshell, the Fed has rarely lowered interest rates in periods where core consumer prices were rising faster than the unemployment rate. It’s happened only 5 or 6 times in history. And when it did, short term optimism was followed by poor stock and bond performance as the Fed reversed course and eventually raised rates to correct its earlier error.


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Comments

  • larryB
    edited January 14
    Great Being There reference. When I read the novel by J. Kosinski in the early seventies I was blown away. It still resonates today. Empty suits and platitudes.
  • sma3
    Poor Kosinski. Dead by suicide at 58.

    His suicide note read: "I am going to put myself to sleep now for a bit longer than usual. Call it Eternity."

    Painted Bird is a remarkable book, as is Being There. Fascinating man, but not everyone's cup of tea
  • hank
    edited January 14
    sma3 said:

    Poor Kosinski. Dead by suicide at 58.

    His suicide note read: "I am going to put myself to sleep now for a bit longer than usual. Call it Eternity."Painted Bird is a remarkable book, as is Being There. Fascinating man, but not everyone's cup of tea

    Thanks for the insight. Sad fate for talented writer. This isn’t the first time Forsyth has quoted Kosinski’s Chauncey Gardner in his column. Seems to have a fascination with him. But, it’s amazing sometimes how real life imitates art!

  • CrashCrash
    Did not know that about J. Kosinski. Saddens me. Empty suits and platitudes, indeed.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    Empty suits and platitudes, for certain.
  • Tarwheel
    Being There is one of those rare cases where the movie was as good or better than the book. Peter Sellers was amazing.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    Yes.
  • Sven
    Many great punch lines from Being There, and they seem to fit so well in various situations.
    “I like to watch” with Shirely McClain in a bedroom. Chauncey likes watching cartoons.
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