Howdy,
A thank you to all who post the links, start and participate in the many fine commentaries woven into the message threads.
For those who don't know; I ramble away about this and that, at least once each week.
NOTE: For those who visit MFO, this portfolio is designed for near retirement, capital preservation and to stay ahead of inflation creep. This is not a buy and hold portfolio, and is subject to change on any given day; based upon perceptions of market directions. All assets in this portfolio are in tax-sheltered accounts; and any fund distributions are reinvested in the funds. Gains or losses are computed from actual account values.
While looking around.....We'll just be hang'in out with our current portfolio mix; as the coming elections are a likely coin toss as to a forward path. The power brokers will remain in place; at both Wall St. in N.Y.C. and K St. in D.C., regardless of the elections. Yes, a president who is a real person of action, could make a difference; given a few years time, but I don't find that person in our near future. The likely key will be what legislation will be in place for the lame duck congress and who among that group will show their real colors with voting; as they are not beholden to the public. Okay, this is all; as last week and this coming week find a very full schedule with other areas at the home front.
The data/numbers below have been updated.
As to sector rotations below (Fidelity funds); for the past week: (Note: any given fund in any of these sectors will have varing degrees of performance based upon where the manager(s) choose to be invested and will not directly reflect upon your particular fund holdings from other vendors.) Sidenote: The average weekly return of 200 combined Fidelity retail funds across all sectors (week avg = - .92%, YTD + 11.34%).
--- U.S. equity - .50% through - 2.28%, week avg. = - 1.36% YTD = + 14%
--- Int'l equity - 1.70% through + 1.33%, week avg. = - .70% YTD = + 12.6%
--- Select eq. sectors - 5.0% through + .45%, week avg. = - 1.44% YTD = + 13.3%
--- U.S./Int'l bonds - .37% through + 0.62%, week avg. = + .01% YTD = + 3.50%
--- HY bonds - .30% through - .67%, week avg. = - .48% YTD = + 11.2%
A Decent Overview, M* 1 Month through 5 Year, Multiple Indexes
You may consider our portfolio to be quite boring, but you may be assured that it moves and bends each and every day; from forces beyond our control.
I have added a few blips related to our portfolio and market observations at the below SELLs/BUYs and Portfolio Thoughts.
SELLs/BUYs THIS PAST WEEK: = NONE.
Portfolio Thoughts:
Our holdings had a - .07 % move this past week. Our portfolio return has become about "flat" for the last 3 weeks with bond types trading places as the favored flavor of the week. Most equity sectors ended the week in the negative, with Japan, China and a few other Asian sectors being positive. We'll continue to watch; but do not have plans at this time, to enter into equity areas.
b> Still plodding along, and we will retain the below write from previous weeks; as what we are watching, still applies. --- commodity pricing, especially the energy and base materials areas; copper and related.
--- the $US broad basket value, and in particular against the Euro and Aussie dollar (EU zone and China/Asia uncertainties).
--- price directions of U.S. treasury's, German bunds, U.K. gilts, Japanese bonds; and continued monitoring of Spanish/Italian bond pricing/yield.
--- what we are watching to help understand the money flows: SHY, IEF, TLT, TIPZ, STPZ, LTPZ, LQD, EMB, HYG, IWM, IYT & VWO; all of which offer insights reflected from the big traders as to the quality/risk, or lack of quality/risk; in various bond sectors.
The Funds Boat is at anchor, riding in the small waves, watching the weather and behind the breakwater barrier. To the high praise of MFO and the members, it is very difficult to find a topic to note here that has not been placed into the discussion boards. Excellence, as usual.
I have retained the following links for those who may choose to do their own holdings comparison against the fund types noted.
The first two links to Bloomberg are for their list of balanced/flexible funds; although I don't always agree with the placement of fund styles in their categories.
Bloomberg BalancedBloomberg FlexibleThese next two links are for conservative and moderate fund leaders YTD, per MSN.
Conservative AllocationModerate AllocationA reflection upon the links above. We attempt to establish a "benchmark" for our portfolio to help us "see" how our funds are performing. Aside from viewing many funds within the balanced/flexible funds rankings (the above links), a quick and dirty group of 5 funds (below) we watch for psuedo benchmarking are the following:
***Note: these week/YTD's per M*
VWINX .... - .49% week, YTD = + 9.27%
PRPFX .... - .63% week, YTD = + 6.05%
SIRRX ..... + .04% week, YTD = + 6.11%
TRRFX .... - .57% week, YTD = + 9.48%
VTENX ... - .49% week, YTD = + 8.43%Such are the numerous battles with investments attempting to capture a decent return and minimize the risk.
We live and invest in interesting times, eh? Hey, I probably forgot something; and hopefully the words make some sense. Comments and questions always welcomed.
Good fortune to you, yours and the investments.
Take care,
Catch
---Below is what M* x-ray has attempted to sort for our portfolio, as of June 1, 2012---
From what I find, M* has a difficult time sorting out the holdings with bond funds.
U.S./Foreign Stocks 1.9%
Bonds 93.9% ***
Other 4.2%
Not Classified 0.00%
Avg yield = 3.72%
Avg expense = .55%
***about 18% of the bond total are high yield category (equity related cousins)---This % listing is kinda generic, by fund "name"; which doesn't always imply the holdings, eh?
-Investment grade bond funds 28.2%
-Diversified bond funds 22.4%
-HY/HI bond funds 14.5%
-Total bond funds 32.4%
-Foreign EM/debt bond funds .6%
-U.S./Int'l equity/speciality funds 1.9%
This is our current list: (NOTE: I have added a speciality grouping below for a few of fund types)
---High Yield/High Income Bond funds
FAGIX Fid Capital & Income
SPHIX Fid High Income
FHIIX.LW Fed High Income
DIHYX TransAmerica HY
---Total Bond funds
FTBFX Fid Total
PTTRX Pimco Total
---Investment Grade Bonds
ACITX Amer. Cent. TIPS Bond
DGCIX Delaware Corp. Bd
FBNDX Fid Invest Grade
FINPX Fidelity TIPS Bond
OPBYX Oppenheimer Core Bond
---Global/Diversified Bonds
FSICX Fid Strategic Income
FNMIX Fid New Markets
DPFFX Delaware Diversified
LSBDX Loomis Sayles
PONDX Pimco Income fund (steroid version)
PLDDX Pimco Low Duration (domestic/foreign)
---Speciality Funds (sectors or mixed allocation)
FRIFX Fidelity Real Estate Income (bond/equity mix)
---Equity-Domestic/Foreign
NONE outright, with the exception of equities held inside of some of the above funds.
Comments
I recently received a copy of a nationally published subscription newsletter that highlights thoughts on the fiscal cliff and action that the advisor has taken concerning his income model portfolios.
I find it interesting that this advisor has taken all of his income model portfolios to strictly bond held funds. No equity funds or hybrid funds that hold any equities whatsoever including convertible securities are now being held.
It is believed that if Congress does not deal with the fiscal cliff that about three percent will subtracted from GDP for 2013. He feels it is a good time for investors to position themselves more cautiously until economic conditions improve.
Hey, Catch this is saying volumes about your investment posture and strategy ... and, my reduction of equities within my own portfolio.
Best regards … and, Good Investing,
Skeeter
One day, week or month somewhere into the future will likely find having to reshuffle the bond mix and discover again where and how much, in the equity world, to venture.
Investing is not unlike a puzzle one bought, with the box indicating 1,000 pieces; and yet the puzzle continues to grow in size as pieces are added.
Never many dull moments, eh?
Take care,
Catch
Can't argue with your choice and should be in our mix, too. Mr. Arnott seems to be in touch with reality and the markets, and PAUDX currently is invested into about 40 Pimco funds, giving a big mix.
Your money should be happy.
Thanks for the reminder.
Take care,
Catch