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In that otherwise very good article - I got confused by the data in several charts. For instance - what is the beginning date for Chart #2? I just can't get my head around VFINX only declining 8.3%. Charles - when did that 1 year begin? Thanks Dan
"To Sell or Not To Sell?" by Charles Bolin in the March 2023 MFO issue. Chart 2 appears to be using years ending 01/31/23 or perhaps 12/31/22 (the five funds with dashes for later years are all aged just past the years of their last entry). Chart not reproducible now, as MFOP now includes February data (but such a chart looks worse now).
Good morning, The confusion about the table is related to my second article for the month, "Looking Beyond 2023 - Investing Lies and Statistics" where I describe year over year as a way of measuring inflation as an example. It has to do with two data points, one now and the other a year ago.
The chart is comparing the fund performance for the last twelve months as of the end of January which would be from February 2022 through January 2023. In February 2022 the S&P 500 was down 2.8% as a starting point. In January 2023, the S&P 500 was up over 7% compared to the previous month. The one-year comparison is from a starting low point to an ending high point. People have it fresh in their minds that 2022 was a bad year and the table is not comparing the calendar 2022 period.
To validate the chart we can use the following calculator. For the calendar 2022 year (12 months) from January 2022 to January 2023, the S&P 500 lost 13.4%. For the twelve month period from February 2022 to February 2023, the S&P 500 lost 9.8% compared to loss of 8.3% in Chart #2 from the article. I am not sure why there is a 1.5% difference in the two reporting data sets. One difference is that I used VFINX which represents the S&P500 compared to the actual S&P500 index.
As a final check, as of yesterday, using Morningstar, the one-year return on VFINX is minus 6.97% compared to SPY which is a minus 6.9%.
I just updated the table through February. I don't know how to display a picture so if someone can't help me out, I would appreciate it. Through February, the one-year return of VFINX is -7.8% which is close to the table in the article and the Morningstar estimate as of yesterday.
Comments
Perhaps I need more coffee or more sleep.
The confusion about the table is related to my second article for the month, "Looking Beyond 2023 - Investing Lies and Statistics" where I describe year over year as a way of measuring inflation as an example. It has to do with two data points, one now and the other a year ago.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2023/03/looking-beyond-2023-investing-lies-and-statistics/
The chart is comparing the fund performance for the last twelve months as of the end of January which would be from February 2022 through January 2023. In February 2022 the S&P 500 was down 2.8% as a starting point. In January 2023, the S&P 500 was up over 7% compared to the previous month. The one-year comparison is from a starting low point to an ending high point. People have it fresh in their minds that 2022 was a bad year and the table is not comparing the calendar 2022 period.
To validate the chart we can use the following calculator. For the calendar 2022 year (12 months) from January 2022 to January 2023, the S&P 500 lost 13.4%. For the twelve month period from February 2022 to February 2023, the S&P 500 lost 9.8% compared to loss of 8.3% in Chart #2 from the article. I am not sure why there is a 1.5% difference in the two reporting data sets. One difference is that I used VFINX which represents the S&P500 compared to the actual S&P500 index.
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
As a final check, as of yesterday, using Morningstar, the one-year return on VFINX is minus 6.97% compared to SPY which is a minus 6.9%.
I just updated the table through February. I don't know how to display a picture so if someone can't help me out, I would appreciate it. Through February, the one-year return of VFINX is -7.8% which is close to the table in the article and the Morningstar estimate as of yesterday.
Symbol APR 1 yr % APR 2 yr %/yr APR 3 yr %/yr APR 5 yr %/yr
VFINX, -7.8, 3.5, 12.0, 9.7
VGYAX, -4.6, -0.1, 2.2, 3
VWIAX, -6.5, -0.4, 2.7, 4.5
GPANX, -3.7, -0.1, 3.5, 3.5
VTMFX, -5.5, 0.2, 5.5, 5.8
VGWAX, -3.3, 2.6, 6.7, 6.0
COTZX, -8.1, -3.3, 6.4, 7.2
PQTAX, 8.1, 12.5, 11.3, 8.4
REMIX, 5.8, 9.2, 15.5,
If I missed something, please let me know. I hope this helps.
Regards,
(Charles) Lynn