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Cyclical stocks—Many, but not all, cyclicals are already partially or completely pricing in a recession. Banks and semiconductor stocks look particularly compelling here.
...we believe that over the long term, GARP stocks still offer the best risk-adjusted returns in the market... life sciences tools , exchanges, and credit bureau spaces all look very attractive.
Utilities over staples—
High-quality high yield and loans—
Select large-cap tech—
Where do we not see value?
Where everyone is hiding out—Where investors are seeking safety and where valuations are expensive. The most obvious areas are defense, energy, staples, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals... Speculative and profitless tech.
Interesting he thinks energy is expensive although most oil stocks are trading at PE etc well below the SP500 and energy still makes up a tiny % of SP500
thanks so much for letting us know this report was out. I was intrigued by Giroux's discussion of both NXPI and TXN back in the Fall so did some more research and bought both. They have done well. I track his monthly holdings and there's a new stock that has popped up in his top 10 -- Intercontinental Exchange. Not familiar with that company but will read up.
I've been bird-dogging UTILITIES for quite a while. I have not been able to find one whose P/E was not too high for my liking. Or else the dividend was too low or missing altogether.
Just checked-up on FORTIS again, out of St. John's, Newfoundland. (FTS.) The P/E is still way up there, at 19.31. The div. looks attractive, though. And using the chart, I see it hit an all-time high on 31 May, 2022. Tonight, it's down from that peak by -18.27%. Maybe someone ELSE will be tempted to buy. https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/fts/quote
Where everyone is hiding out—Where investors are seeking safety and where valuations are expensive. The most obvious areas are defense, energy, staples, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals... Speculative and profitless tech.
1. Noted that GE, Amazon and Microsoft were sold and bought (Amazon and Microsoft). 2. Treasury notes was increased to 9%. Recall it was at 6-7% in the semiannual report. 3. Asset allocation: 62% stocks, 32% bonds, and 6% cash. In the past, the fund has over 70% stocks.
Interesting he thinks energy is expensive although most oil stocks are trading at PE etc well below the SP500 and energy still makes up a tiny % of SP500
I understand your sentiments @sma3, but I think we also have to look at:
1) TTM P/E vs forward P/E (trailing measures include some flush and warnings due to higher energy prices in ‘22)
2) Energy stocks generally always have low P/E’s, especially in relation to the overall market (S&P 500, etc.)
Not a criticism….I do the same….also, I didn’t read the annual report yet, but I imagine he is saying defensive stocks (safer during recession risks and higher volatility) and commodities (inflation trades) are “played out.”
Cyclicals have widely varying P/Es. So, counterintuitively, that have low P/Es at/near peaks (high earnings and cashflows) and high P/Es at/near a bottom.
Comments
Some excerpts on 2023 and forward.
Where do we see value?
Cyclical stocks—Many, but not all, cyclicals are already partially or completely pricing in a recession. Banks and semiconductor stocks look particularly compelling here.
...we believe that over the long term, GARP stocks still offer the best risk-adjusted returns in the market... life sciences tools , exchanges, and credit bureau spaces all look very attractive.
Utilities over staples—
High-quality high yield and loans—
Select large-cap tech—
Where do we not see value?
Where everyone is hiding out—Where investors are seeking safety and where valuations are expensive. The most obvious areas are defense, energy, staples, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals... Speculative and profitless tech.
"Utilities over staples—"
I've been bird-dogging UTILITIES for quite a while. I have not been able to find one whose P/E was not too high for my liking. Or else the dividend was too low or missing altogether.
Just checked-up on FORTIS again, out of St. John's, Newfoundland. (FTS.) The P/E is still way up there, at 19.31. The div. looks attractive, though. And using the chart, I see it hit an all-time high on 31 May, 2022. Tonight, it's down from that peak by -18.27%. Maybe someone ELSE will be tempted to buy.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/fts/quote
2. Treasury notes was increased to 9%. Recall it was at 6-7% in the semiannual report.
3. Asset allocation: 62% stocks, 32% bonds, and 6% cash. In the past, the fund has over 70% stocks.
1) TTM P/E vs forward P/E (trailing measures include some flush and warnings due to higher energy prices in ‘22)
2) Energy stocks generally always have low P/E’s, especially in relation to the overall market (S&P 500, etc.)
Not a criticism….I do the same….also, I didn’t read the annual report yet, but I imagine he is saying defensive stocks (safer during recession risks and higher volatility) and commodities (inflation trades) are “played out.”