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The Last Ten Days Have Been the Hottest in a While (2023 Market Observations)
It is almost a waste of time to claim allegiance to either tribe other than to validate anger. I hope all can agree the government in total has run the place into the ground. We we have to borrow to make debt payments now. Does that ring a bell of unity?
Santos would have made a terrific novelist or playwright. Heaven only knows how he bumbled into politics. But be glad he’s not your money manager.
” … as my father snobbishly suggested, and I snobbishly repeat, a sense of the fundamental decencies is parceled out unequally at birth.” - F. Scott Fitzgerald
SP500 faces a strong test at 4,100. But some sentiment indicators (Deemer-BAM, Whaley, etc) and a trifecta of seasonality indicators (with near certainty, today) have triggered that may carry SP500 over 4,100 (we will see in the next few days). This may happen regardless of the tough-love message by Powell tomorrow to "fix" the fed fund futures market expectations of 25-25-5Holds-1Cut.
During the selloff in 2022, I increased my equity exposure that is now beyond my 40-60% effective-equity range. My plan is to scale that back when we are in 4,300-4,600 range. But, if 4,100 fails, I will reassess.
ISTM the Barron’s (Roundtable) gurus made some predictions on where the S&P would end this year. Ranged from a low at / below 4,000 to around 4300 (David Giroux on the high end). Sorry - have scanned the back issues and can’t locate those predictions. Thanks for sharing your update Yogi.
To be honest I pay little attention to the S&P. (Yes - I realize one should). The Dow ISTM is a good indicator of public sentiment (if nothing else) because so many Mom & Pop investors are attuned to it. Still tends to be the headline-grabber on big up / down days. Of course, both are largely U.S. focused. Certainly there are developed markets in Europe / Japan and elsewhere as well as a wide range of undeveloped markets to be possibly included in a long term portfolio.
Added: What is helpful to me to a degree is watching the % of change + / - in a particular asset or index. Last year was a “gift-horse” in the sense the indexes peaked early in 2022. So, simply pulling up the YTD return gave you a pretty good approximation of the amount of loss from peak. Not that easy now, though there are ways to compute peak to present as well as 1, 3, 5 year gains or losses. I think I’ve alluded in the past to being a bit of a bottom-feeder. Heights in general bother me.
Actually, simply ”Googling” a stock or fund’s ticker symbol now pulls up an incredible amount of current / backward-looking data. Use it almost daily.
Different stuff peaked at different times. Crazy highflyers and EMs peaked in 02/2021, small-caps and DJ Transports in 11/2022, SP500 in 01/2022, DJIA and Nasdaq Comp also in 01/2022 but it was their 2nd peak after 11/2021 (so, sort of a double-peak), DJ Utilities peaked in 04/2022 or 09/2022.
On hindsight, it makes good sense - riskier stuff peaked first, then gradually, less risky stuff. It was like a rolling bear market but people in it didn't know that at the time.
All eyes are now on this post-10/2022 rally/bounce and the Big Guy talks tomorrow.
”The top index of US stocks hit an all-time high in January 2022. It was downhill from there. The S&P 500 lost 19.4% over the past 12 months, notching its worst year since 2008.”
Strange? Is CNN wrong here - or are we possibly talking about intra-day high vs closing high?
@catch22 / Above, @MikeM and I were discussing when the S&P “peaked.” My earlier statement that it was in early 2022 was cast in doubt. Mike said late 2021 - which Wikipedia seems to agree with. But now, I come across a CNN article saying it peaked in early 2022. Were there 2 “peaks”? If it’s a matter of sources, I’ll take Wikipedia over CNN.
There was indeed a peak in 11/2021 that was high at the time, but then, 01/2022 peak was higher. So, now, we can say that SP500 peaked in 01/2022. Charts are there for all to see. Searching old stories is useless as they won't be rewritten.
Now that I look, Yahoo's historical data shows the S&P500 peaked on Jan.3 2022 at 4786. I know my personal accounts peaked on Nov.8 2021. What-ever. Seems like a long long time ago. Haven't recovered yet.
Well, Yogi and I are playing with charts at the same time. As Yogi noted, both late 2021 and early 2022 found high points. Note: the below chart is NAV prices WITH distributions included. SPY had a distribution on Dec. 17, 2021.
SPY chart, all of 2021 and 2022 for a quick view, too.
Glad to see @MikeM keeps such punctilious records. FWIW I record only year-end portfolio change. As long as my office app doesn’t get hacked, I’m well fortified (with numbers). But couldn’t tell you what happened in any particular month. Of course, there are the charts.
Haven’t looked yet at Catch’s latest chart. But will do so. Thanks @catch22 & @Yogibearbull for your labors.
Edit: Geez - If I’m reading Catch’s chart correctly, it looks like a peak in early 2022. Perhaps the Wikipedia article hasn’t been updated. Also could be one gives the intra-day high and the other the closing high.
@hank, I don't keep meticulous records. Actually I don't keep any records at all on return. Schwab does it for me. The home page when I log into Schwab is a chart that trends day by day closing totals. I put the curser on the trend and it gives me day by day dollar amounts. Hence, I can easily see my (single not twin) peak.
@MikeM - Thanks for clarifying. New to brokerages here - but notice that Fido puts up “gain” & “loss” figures for individual holdings, as well as total invested sum. Doesn’t move me a lot. It’s the whole ball of wax with all the parts working together I care about. (Have even owned inverse funds on occasion.) Haven’t tried, but imagine one could go back at Fido and pull up the kind of specifics you looked at. Appreciate your comments as always.
Comments
” … as my father snobbishly suggested, and I snobbishly repeat, a sense of the fundamental decencies is parceled out unequally at birth.” - F. Scott Fitzgerald
SP500 faces a strong test at 4,100. But some sentiment indicators (Deemer-BAM, Whaley, etc) and a trifecta of seasonality indicators (with near certainty, today) have triggered that may carry SP500 over 4,100 (we will see in the next few days). This may happen regardless of the tough-love message by Powell tomorrow to "fix" the fed fund futures market expectations of 25-25-5Holds-1Cut.
During the selloff in 2022, I increased my equity exposure that is now beyond my 40-60% effective-equity range. My plan is to scale that back when we are in 4,300-4,600 range. But, if 4,100 fails, I will reassess.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63951820077
To be honest I pay little attention to the S&P. (Yes - I realize one should). The Dow ISTM is a good indicator of public sentiment (if nothing else) because so many Mom & Pop investors are attuned to it. Still tends to be the headline-grabber on big up / down days. Of course, both are largely U.S. focused. Certainly there are developed markets in Europe / Japan and elsewhere as well as a wide range of undeveloped markets to be possibly included in a long term portfolio.
Added: What is helpful to me to a degree is watching the % of change + / - in a particular asset or index. Last year was a “gift-horse” in the sense the indexes peaked early in 2022. So, simply pulling up the YTD return gave you a pretty good approximation of the amount of loss from peak. Not that easy now, though there are ways to compute peak to present as well as 1, 3, 5 year gains or losses. I think I’ve alluded in the past to being a bit of a bottom-feeder. Heights in general bother me.
Actually, simply ”Googling” a stock or fund’s ticker symbol now pulls up an incredible amount of current / backward-looking data. Use it almost daily.
On hindsight, it makes good sense - riskier stuff peaked first, then gradually, less risky stuff. It was like a rolling bear market but people in it didn't know that at the time.
All eyes are now on this post-10/2022 rally/bounce and the Big Guy talks tomorrow.
Markets did climb a bit very early in 2022 before turning south.
”The top index of US stocks hit an all-time high in January 2022. It was downhill from there. The S&P 500 lost 19.4% over the past 12 months, notching its worst year since 2008.”
Strange? Is CNN wrong here - or are we possibly talking about intra-day high vs closing high?
There was indeed a peak in 11/2021 that was high at the time, but then, 01/2022 peak was higher. So, now, we can say that SP500 peaked in 01/2022. Charts are there for all to see. Searching old stories is useless as they won't be rewritten.
Now that I look, Yahoo's historical data shows the S&P500 peaked on Jan.3 2022 at 4786. I know my personal accounts peaked on Nov.8 2021. What-ever. Seems like a long long time ago. Haven't recovered yet.
Note: the below chart is NAV prices WITH distributions included. SPY had a distribution on Dec. 17, 2021.
SPY chart, all of 2021 and 2022 for a quick view, too.
Haven’t looked yet at Catch’s latest chart. But will do so. Thanks @catch22 & @Yogibearbull for your labors.
Edit: Geez - If I’m reading Catch’s chart correctly, it looks like a peak in early 2022. Perhaps the Wikipedia article hasn’t been updated. Also could be one gives the intra-day high and the other the closing high.