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https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-04/us-job-openings-remain-highly-elevated-at-10-46-millionUS companies added more jobs than expected in December, driven by small- and medium-sized businesses, and highlighting the resilience of labor demand that’s underpinning wage growth. Private payrolls increased 235,000 last month after an upwardly revised 182,000 in November, according to data from ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The figure exceeded all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Treasury yields spiked and US stock futures declined after the release.
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Gold’s closing in on $1900 - highest level in at least a year. Silver’s much more erratic, but running hotter overall. Dollar’s been sliding against some foreign currencies for couple months now - but not in a straight line. EM has turned up as of late. Bonds (investment grade) have been scalding hot this week. If you were “on the fence” a week or two ago you’ve missed a good portion of the bond rally.
Recent Article Re The Fed: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-fed-interest-rate-cuts-december-meeting-minutes-2023-1
Still have small allocation of investment grade bond and bank loan funds. Surprise that gold is making a come back. Must be due to bitcoin taking big hit last year.
James Stack notes in his January 9 update to subscribers that day to day volatility (S&P) over past 12 months is the 3rd highest in the last 60 years. It is exceeded only by 2008 and 2002.
Wow. I thought it was just me getting “jumpy”.
Can anyone explain why with all this volatility the VIX remains at relatively low readings?
VIX of 21.13 means daily SP500 volatility of +/- 1.11% most of the time and +/- 2.22% or +/- 3.33% some of the time (in the next 30 days).
For VXN (Nasdaq Comp) of 26.96, that means +/- 1.42% most of the time and +/- 2.82% or 4.26% some of the time.
That is plenty of volatility.
MOVE is more relevant for bonds and that is also elevated.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88970521030
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$USD,$GOLD
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GVZ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69180341751