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Market predictions - End Dec 2023

johnNjohnN
edited December 2022 in Other Investing
https://www.newsobserver.com/money/stock-market-predictions-2023/


Many pundits wrong this yr Dec 2022 from previous predictions - Morgan Stanley sp500 4400 to Oppenheimer 5300


WHat levels You folks think maybe end next yr

Stagnation, poor Economic conditions, perhaps severe prolong recessions. Feds pivot may not even turn market around because severe slow downs and poor ER

think we may end up sp500 near 4250 but what do I know

I hope we won't be at 3000 for sure (end of 2023)

Happy holidays

Comments

  • Observant1
    edited December 2022
    Most pundits are wrong in any given year.
    They'll often predict 8% - 10% returns for the S&P 500
    (near long-term S&P 500 avg.) in the coming year to play it safe.
    I've read many of these predictions, but frankly, most are a waste of time.
    Happy Holidays!
  • Sven
    Agree. 2022 is a great example and few (if) guessed it is one of the worst year in recent years.
  • CecilJK
    Hi johnN. Wishing you the very best in the coming year. Not a prediction but a comment. For me, if I make my five year average rolling return, in 2023, then I will be a happy camper with coins going to my pocket along with some left for reinvestment to grow my asset base. Happy Holidays. OS
  • FD1000
    Why I don't pay attention to predictions and "experts" (link)
  • stayCalm
    My 2c fwiw -- SP500 will go below 3000 in 2023
  • Baseball_Fan
    @fd1000. Totally understand your perspective regarding experts. What's your perspective if I stated hussy hsgfx has outperformed fan favorite prwcx groovy guireaux over the past 3 plus years?

    My point being the experts you referenced had no way of knowing the 40 + trillion or so the global central banks would be pumped into the markets. Now that go bye bye maybe just maybe a more realistic investment approach is called for? Maybe all the newer bloggers and podcasters weren't the experts after all and maybe hussy, arnott and the grey beards will prevail?

    Thoughts?

    Merry Christmas to all

    Baseball fan
  • JD_co
    All the Bearishness out there is making me Bullish.

    There are no market clairvoyants. The pundits can't help us because nobody can predict short-term fluctuations. Nobody. And we all know this. Each year we read articles to guide us for the following year and each year they are mostly wrong.

    If opportunities do present themselves in 2023, and you have (or horde) cash to deploy, then you are fortunate.

    Predictions are like __(Pick a body part)____s. Everybody seems to have one.
  • Baseball_Fan
    @JD_co. Interesting you state that....all the bearishness out there making me bullish.... I was just telling my wife exactly that a few days ago...one thing I'm certain of though is that I have no idea what will happen. Only guesses.
  • JD_co
    edited December 2022
    @Baseball_Fan Notice I didn't preface it with..."It's just my 2 cents...". Because it ain't even worth that. But yes, the market likes to go against overall sentiment (i.e. contra-indicator).

    The stigma of a potential recession is hanging heavy over 2023. Earnings estimates would have to come down another few levels, corporate debt is no longer cheap, etc. etc.

    But the market could still rally in the face of ANY news out there, so.....good luck timing things. Its simply an unpredictable beast. My favorite line is "The stock market is forward-looking". But how can it really see into the future?
  • stayCalm
    edited December 2022
    3Y return for Giroux is 9.09% vs. Hussy Total Return at 2.76%

    3Y return for Hussy Strategic Allocation is 7.68%
  • JD_co
    stayCalm said:

    3Y return for Giroux is 9.09% vs. Hussy Total Return at 2.76%

    If Hussman ever has his day, then the rest of us are in trouble. (Lets hope the clock never breaks.)
  • stayCalm
    The market will yoyo in 2023 based on reading the tea leaves around the terminal rate, how long the terminal rate will stay at that level and when the inevitable drug of QE will be released.
  • Baseball_Fan
    Calm, I'm looking at Morningstar info 3 years thru dec 22...data shows hsgfx outperforming prwcx...noting that if you look at hussy just stonk portion of hsgfx since 2000 he outperforms spy by something like 400 bps year average....

    Not a hussy fan boy, but we'll see....
  • stayCalm
    baseball

    I looked at portfoliovisualizer, different data than M* though admittedly I didn't check if PV data is end of last trading day or end of prior month.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Depending on the setting, free PV data can be to the year-end (default) or month-end. Paid version has data to the last day.
    M* has tabs for Daily, Monthly, Quarterly.
    Free StochCharts can provide charts to the last day (default) or week.
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