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I like the term the Blackrock lady referred to, for the level of yield that'll attract a critical mass of investors to (IG) bonds: the Yield of Dreams.
my junk bonds are still getting killed. i re-invest proceeds. since it's a fund, i don't bet it will go to zero. meanwhile, the yield gets incrementally better. TUHYX.
Those RY guests weren't too positive on corporate junk, more positive though on IG corporates.
I did find it interesting that Kathy Jones, who I usually think is quite good on this stuff, said in the rapid-fire round that given J. Ferro's question whether the last Fed rate bump this cycle will be in 2022, 2023, or 2024, she alone said 2022.
Should be another RY up on Friday. What a great program; nothing like it anywhere else, that I know of at least.
+1. Yes, all the bond-people i hear are more positive on IG corporates. If stocks turn around, I might put a big slug into Equity-Income. PRFDX. Or maybe nibble-in. Current yield on THAT puppy is a mere 1.91%. A far cry from over 7% at TUHYX. Of course, it's in relation to the share price. And the stock fund offers potential for cap gains, too. I think it will be quite a while: next year or the NEXT. patience is a virtue until it becomes procrastination. and there's the war in ukraine, too. and china-covid, still.
Nov. 4 edition here. Participants agree on 5% Fed rate peak; no HY default spike in sight; looking for another bump up in HY spreads but disagreement on the level; IG debt is interesting at this level; soft landing still possible, but policy lag creates unknowns.
Sound's dead from ~ 3m-5m. Not fatal for the show.
P.S. The week ahead: mucho Fedspeak, latest inflation figure Thursday, U Mich consumer sentiment Friday. Oh yeah, the end of the election too.
All three guests think the peak yield this year for the 10y Treasury is already in, and agree with the consensus of a 50 bp Fed rate rise in December. Some talk of scaling back expectations a bit for the presumed Fed's terminal hiking cycle rate ...
Ha, @Crash! You beat me to it, even with my time zone advantage.
A few notes: Good back & forth on HY: Spreads are surprisingly narrow now (in the 400s bp): is the market getting ahead of the situation or just pricing in a cushy-soft landing? Differences in opinion on when a good buying opp for credit will be. DWS guy says there's significant risk of another bout of widening, pointing to equities and HY both probably being in too optimistic territory, and that credit bottoms don't happen until well until into an economic downturn, and that's still ahead.
Rapid fire round: Unanimous agreement that the terminal Fed rate will not be over 5%, that inflation has peaked for this cycle, and (like everyone else in the world) that the Dec Fed hike will be 50 bp.
Another good one. Thanks for that. 2 of the 3 think we'll see 600 basis points of spread b/w Junk and I.G. BEFORE we see 400. WELL..... Am I NOT screwing up, holding onto my Junk? Juicy! And in the past week or so, share price has risen modestly, too. I recall C. Dawson said, "if you can afford to be in long-term, it's great to own spreads, where they currently are."
Well, that was an interesting one. Are we past peak rate volatility? Yes. Will the 2y Treasury hit 5%? Two no, one yes. Are we past peak inflation? Three yes.
Getting into longer duration IG seemed to be the most agreed-upon good move, and B. Am. Meghan said 30y TIPS ought to be a consideration. The Columbia guy, Gene, pointed out agency MBS as a good opportunity too (Pimco and DoubleLine for sure agree). An Oaktree guy in a cutaway spoke up for higher quality HY (BB).
Most of the recession talk was on the mild side, with not that much anticipated risk of loss in high-quality IG corps.
Thanks for linking, @Crash. Made for good pre-dinner reading & pondering at this hacienda.
I've started watching Bloomberg Real Yield a few months ago thanks to a recommendation here. Katie Greifeld seems to always be filling in for Jonathan Ferro. I think I've seen only one episode hosted by Mr. Ferro. Just an observation...
Comments
I did find it interesting that Kathy Jones, who I usually think is quite good on this stuff, said in the rapid-fire round that given J. Ferro's question whether the last Fed rate bump this cycle will be in 2022, 2023, or 2024, she alone said 2022.
Should be another RY up on Friday. What a great program; nothing like it anywhere else, that I know of at least.
Sound's dead from ~ 3m-5m. Not fatal for the show.
P.S. The week ahead: mucho Fedspeak, latest inflation figure Thursday, U Mich consumer sentiment Friday. Oh yeah, the end of the election too.
All three guests think the peak yield this year for the 10y Treasury is already in, and agree with the consensus of a 50 bp Fed rate rise in December. Some talk of scaling back expectations a bit for the presumed Fed's terminal hiking cycle rate ...
Thanks for posting!
A few notes: Good back & forth on HY: Spreads are surprisingly narrow now (in the 400s bp): is the market getting ahead of the situation or just pricing in a cushy-soft landing? Differences in opinion on when a good buying opp for credit will be. DWS guy says there's significant risk of another bout of widening, pointing to equities and HY both probably being in too optimistic territory, and that credit bottoms don't happen until well until into an economic downturn, and that's still ahead.
Rapid fire round: Unanimous agreement that the terminal Fed rate will not be over 5%, that inflation has peaked for this cycle, and (like everyone else in the world) that the Dec Fed hike will be 50 bp.
Getting into longer duration IG seemed to be the most agreed-upon good move, and B. Am. Meghan said 30y TIPS ought to be a consideration. The Columbia guy, Gene, pointed out agency MBS as a good opportunity too (Pimco and DoubleLine for sure agree). An Oaktree guy in a cutaway spoke up for higher quality HY (BB).
Most of the recession talk was on the mild side, with not that much anticipated risk of loss in high-quality IG corps.
Thanks for linking, @Crash. Made for good pre-dinner reading & pondering at this hacienda.
Katie Greifeld seems to always be filling in for Jonathan Ferro.
I think I've seen only one episode hosted by Mr. Ferro.
Just an observation...