Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Oil has so many variables, extremely powerful, and at global center stage. So many factors causing refinery/oil and price changes. China COVID lock down, Russia Ukraine conflicts/geopolictical, inflation status, OPEC sentiments, Gulf storms/ oil refining accidents, recession/ feds policies aimed to cause demand destruction, lessen USA-CENTRAL America output.. Any of these factors shifting can reflect changes in price at any given moments.
I think oil maybe heading toward low - mid 80$s per barrel by late fall because of Feds policies if inflation improved but it's so hard to play. Any vehicle that shifts by - 20 30s% may eventually bounce.
Crude oil and refined distillates have very different supply and demand drivers. But both have very volatile prices - actually, crude oil more so than distillates. Crack-spread is that between 2 highly unstable prices.
Specifically, refiners have been operating at unsustainably high capacities. As noted by others, the US Summer driving season is coming to an end. Globally, governments also control/cap or subsidize prices of gasoline or diesel. There are demonstrations against high prices for energy (that consumers see) not only in developing countries but now also in Europe.
Gazprom halted gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany Friday citing a gas leak and providing no time frame for when supplies could be restarted. Market red and oil up swings after.
Nord Stream issues today and sp500 stocks crap out...
I'm stepping out of bounds a bit, relative to the investing aspect of the post. Kinda tangent........meaning the twisted thinking and actions coming from Russia, affecting markets and other.
Energy markets are reacting differently to several news items today - proposed European caps on natural gas prices and futures trading (expected), Russian stoppage of natural gas flows into Nord Stream 1 pipeline, small OPEC production cut of 100K barrels/day (unexpected). https://www.cmegroup.com/
“[Red Notice] does for investing in Russia and the former Soviet Union what Liar’s Poker did for our understanding of Salomon Brothers, Wall Street, and the mortgage-backed securities business in the 1980s. Browder’s business saga meshes well with the story of corruption and murder in Vladimir Putin’s Russia, making Red Notice an early candidate for any list of the year’s best books” (Fortune).
and
Following his explosive New York Times bestseller Red Notice, Bill Browder returns with another gripping thriller chronicling how he became Vladimir Putin’s number one enemy by exposing Putin’s campaign to steal and launder hundreds of billions of dollars and kill anyone who stands in his way.
Comments
I think oil maybe heading toward low - mid 80$s per barrel by late fall because of Feds policies if inflation improved but it's so hard to play. Any vehicle that shifts by - 20 30s% may eventually bounce.
Hopefully, Derf
Specifically, refiners have been operating at unsustainably high capacities. As noted by others, the US Summer driving season is coming to an end. Globally, governments also control/cap or subsidize prices of gasoline or diesel. There are demonstrations against high prices for energy (that consumers see) not only in developing countries but now also in Europe.
Have a good weekend, Derf
Gazprom halted gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany Friday citing a gas leak and providing no time frame for when supplies could be restarted. Market red and oil up swings after.
Nord Stream issues today and sp500 stocks crap out...
SURPRISE !!!
Russia to Keep Nord Stream Pipeline Shut, Citing "Mechanical Problems"
Kinda tangent........meaning the twisted thinking and actions coming from Russia, affecting markets and other.
Lukoil Chairman, dies after 'falling' from 6th floor hospital window
Note: the Chairman criticized the Ukraine invasion. You'll read about his 'cause' of death in the short write.
jumpfall out of sixth-floor windows.https://www.cmegroup.com/
A Deeper Interview:
billbrowder.com/
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdBSLoDWYAAeAAo?format=png&name=medium