MFOHome About Commentary Discussions Funds The Best Resources Support Us!

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Sign In Register

Categories

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/15/22

yogibearbullyogibearbull
in Other Investing
For the week ending on 6/15/22, Sentiment was extremely negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (58.3%; very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (19.4%; very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (22.2%; near average); Bull-Bear Spread was -38.9% (very low). Investor concerns included high inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed (+75 bps hike was "leaked" to WSJ on Monday; expect more 50-75 bps hikes); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (16+ weeks; no longer in headlines). For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks, bonds, oil, gold were all down, dollar was up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=6&scrollTo=667

Comments

  • Sven
    edited June 2022
    The broader market on Thursday, the day after 75 bps rate hike is all red. And now it is in bearish territory with DJIA dripped below 30,000.
  • Davep
    Sven said:

    The broader market on Thursday, the day after 75 bps rate hike is all red. And now it is in bearish territory with DJIA dripped below 30,000.

    FED should have raised by 1%.
  • hank
    edited June 2022
    Sven said:

    The broader market on Thursday, the day after 75 bps rate hike is all red. And now it is in bearish territory with DJIA dripped below 30,000.

    Yes - I noticed the slide to below 30,000. What a contrast to less than a year ago when some were buying dips, even with a Dow above 35,000 and the NASDAQ 20-25% higher.

    I’m not in agreement with others here on the Fed rate hike. I’d have gone slower than they did. But I majored in the liberal arts and so know little about economic matters. Can’t help asking if folks are buying? I continue to dribble small amounts in - aware it can get much worse.

  • Sven
    edited June 2022
    @hank, think there are more downside coming with several more rate hikes in 2022. Higher rates put pressure on stocks, especially tech stocks as shown in NASDAQ. This stock reversal reflects recession fear.

    Better to focus on I bonds, individual TIPS and CDs so to benefit from the high CPI. Certainly cash is not trash.
  • BaluBalu
    edited June 2022
    Bears are at 58.3%, three SDs above average but 1% lower than the worse reading for the year on April 28, 2020 when the S&P 500 (4,280) was nearly 18% above the current level. Does not appear we are near the bottom.
  • BaluBalu
    edited June 2022
    During the week of FOMC meeting, may be AAII should consider extending the survey by a day.
  • BaluBalu
    The leak to WSJ on Monday may have been deliberate as a trial balloon to set up topics for discussion during the FOMC meeting which started on Tuesday. We live in leaky times!
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    edited June 2022
    It was a leak that the Fed purposefully wanted, so there may not be internal/external investigations. But a guess I have seen in the media is that it may have come from Minnesota Fed president Neel Kashkari (nonvoting FOMC member now) to the WSJ reporter Nick Timiraos. Media reports are also that somebody from the Fed also alerted big banks on it. The objective was to reverse the accidental mention by Powell at the May FOMC press conference that 75 bps hikes were off the table. After the WSJ report on Monday morning, 75 bps hike was no longer a surprise by Wednesday. Reuters's Howard Schneider's long question also had this - What role the Fed had in changing the market expectations on Monday, and he tried to follow up when Powell didn't address this, but mike was moved from him and his hand shrug was telling. There were other related questions, but none as pointed as Schneider's. Of course, the markets took a huge hit on Monday, briefly rallied on Wednesday and are tanking today - all averages are below Monday's close.

    MN Fed Kashkari https://www.minneapolisfed.org/people/neel-kashkari
    WSJ Timiraos https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos
    FOMC at YouTube, watch 9:20-11:35
    Major Averages https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p64615965769
  • BaluBalu
    edited June 2022
    @yogibearbull,

    My thinking (minus the Neel speculation) was exactly that. I noticed the presser dynamics too. If there was a severe adverse reaction to the leak, the Fed probably would have stuck to the 50 basis points. With no such reaction, Fed got the permission to push the 75 basis points through.

    We had a leak of the Friday CPI on Thursday too. With no transaction fee trading, the markets are moving very fast compared to only a couple of years ago. Leaks are exacerbating the problem. The volatility across the board has ratcheted up. At some point, the market participants should start requiring higher risk premium, commensurate with the higher volatility, and may effect market liquidity / plumbing in the long run.

    I do not like this normalization of the leak culture - not only the small guy gets screwed, it is also not good for an orderly functioning of society.
Sign In or Register to comment.