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I just checked my Schwab account & found it down (-.06%) for the day ! With the markets up across the board for the day, how could this be ? Maybe all the collateral damage from Fridays sell off didn't show up until today ?
Did anyone else happen to find their accounts down on Mondays close ?
Yes, I am down on Monday by -0.29%. stinky doggy poopies. Oil, commodities down. My regional bank stock (BHB) was down, though the TRP Fin. Svs. PRISX fund was up by a mere penny. My best today was PRWCX, up by +0.23%. (35% of portfolio.)
Anything with metals or commodity exposure got dinged. I’d expect multi-strategy funds to be all over the place depending whether they had long commodity / gold exposure. Plus, the hedges (approaches using puts) swung from strong up in the morning to down by day’s end. In a sense “The first shall be last” applied as the day carried on, meaning a lot of things flip-flopped between open and close.
Interest rates reversed, with longer rates falling for a change. Many funds have been hedging against rising rates - so they would have gotten hurt by the reversal. Another interesting factor was the weakness in Asia overnight which affected global / EM funds today. Cheer up (and stay away from windows). Commodities are said to be recovering in overnight trading.
“Did anyone else happen to find their accounts down on Mondays (sic) close ?” - My tracker lost .01%. My portfolio lost .18%
“Is the Schmeissing just getting started? Inquiring minds want to know...”
Personally, I subscribe to the “tip-toe” school of investing - adding slightly when things are falling and selling slowly when they rise. Today was a good day to lighten up on TAIL which is up and tip-toe into some things that are down.
Yesterday, Bill Fleckenstein, who I enjoy reading, predicted the Fed will keep raising rates “until something breaks”, than will “panic” and cut rates. He’s been wrong a lot on his nearer term projections. (Shorting Tesla 2-3 years ago / owned OSTK recently). But does seem to have a reasonably good grasp of the longer term picture. As to making sense of all the conflicting market analysis:
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.”
I have a special style. You can see it (here). Since 2013, I have been practicing sell to cash at certain conditions (proprietary). Since retirement in 2018, my selling rules are tighter, I never lost more than 1% from any last top. Going to cash depends on big picture analysis + current conditions and why it's different from others. I missed all the big meltdown of Q4/2018, 03/2020 and YTD. I can be wrong, it happened twice since 2013, I was back within 3-4 days. Remember, it's more important to miss the worse days than the best(link).
I posted several ideas YTD on other sites: 1) Best wide range category so far in 2022 is VALUE(VTV), posted in mid-January. See (chart). In my world, it means most of the stocks would be in value. 2) I'm in cash for weeks because high risk conditions were met. It's the longest I have been in cash since 2013. Based on that, I only allowed to make short-term (hours to 2-3 days) trades.
Tues: More stinky doggy poopies. My best ones today were bonds: TUHYX. PRFRX. PRTXX. And BHB was down by just a penny. Overall, down -1.57%. I'm not buying anything more, yet... I think when new, higher rates are actually IMPLEMENTED, there will be a lot of fecal material hitting the oscillating rotisserie. WORST: ENIC. Next-worse: TRP FIN. SVS. PRISX, -2.92%. EL BIG-O SUCK-O. But "what's a mother to DO?" I'm 32% in Financials.
Many pundits say housing bubbles crash maybe imminent ...Not many folks have $ pay mortgage due to current rates/limited new applications /less new house sell...major banks announced jobs cut next quater.
When we were buying our homes back in the 1970s the mortgage rates were typically 8% to 8.5%. However did we all manage without the real estate world crashing and burning?
These huge daily up/down moves point to some institution(s) doing major asset re-allocation, or some broker(s) raising huge cash - it isn't easy to suddenly raise $44 billion in cash and there may be related hedging, not to say what international investors may be doing for dollar diversification (a new factor).
Since 1976, there have been only two periods when national housing price percent changes Y/Y (maroon line in graph) were negative.
One was briefly in the 1981-1982 recession following a spike in 30-year mortage rates (blue line) to above 18%. The other was more prolonged, between mid 2007 and mid 2012, as mortgage rates declined slowly and gently from 6½% to 3½%.
Friday’s shaping up to be nasty. No relief from bonds. Some foreign markets are above water as are a few narrowly focused funds with gold or metals exposure. Maybe energy. Overall a rotten showing.
SMFKY. Smurfit Kappa Grp ADR +2.13% today. It's on one of my watch lists, just because it's an Irish company. I'll let you know about my TRAMX, when the daily price is posted. Lots of financials in TRAMX. But if Europe is up, that fund seems to like to rise along with it...
Edited to add: as promised: TRAMX down 3 cents to $11.53 or -0.26%. YTD, WSJ webpage shows +10.2%. I'm certainly not enjoying all of that, but I am up with it, ytd. My bond funds will pay me overnight, too. They're down, due to both the Market, and to account for the pay-outs. TUHYX and PRFRX. In Frontier Mkt bonds, I'm keeping an eye on AGEPX. No money thrown at it yet.
Comments
I'm 32 financials.
12 Healthcare.
10 Tech.
9 Cyclicals.
7 utilities.
7 commodities.
7 energy.
8 cash.
(Morningstar X-Ray.)
Interest rates reversed, with longer rates falling for a change. Many funds have been hedging against rising rates - so they would have gotten hurt by the reversal. Another interesting factor was the weakness in Asia overnight which affected global / EM funds today. Cheer up (and stay away from windows). Commodities are said to be recovering in overnight trading.
“Did anyone else happen to find their accounts down on Mondays (sic) close ?” - My tracker lost .01%. My portfolio lost .18%
+1
Is the Schmeissing just getting started?
Inquiring minds want to know...
Yesterday, Bill Fleckenstein, who I enjoy reading, predicted the Fed will keep raising rates “until something breaks”, than will “panic” and cut rates. He’s been wrong a lot on his nearer term projections. (Shorting Tesla 2-3 years ago / owned OSTK recently). But does seem to have a reasonably good grasp of the longer term picture. As to making sense of all the conflicting market analysis:
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.”
- F. Scott Fitzgerald
Remember, it's more important to miss the worse days than the best(link).
I posted several ideas YTD on other sites:
1) Best wide range category so far in 2022 is VALUE(VTV), posted in mid-January. See (chart). In my world, it means most of the stocks would be in value.
2) I'm in cash for weeks because high risk conditions were met. It's the longest I have been in cash since 2013. Based on that, I only allowed to make short-term (hours to 2-3 days) trades.
Many pundits say housing bubbles crash maybe imminent ...Not many folks have $ pay mortgage due to current rates/limited new applications /less new house sell...major banks announced jobs cut next quater.
Ukraine / Feds rates/ covid/ lack supplies =/> 2009 crash ?!
We Maybe near begin/mid market crash now
One was briefly in the 1981-1982 recession following a spike in 30-year mortage rates (blue line) to above 18%. The other was more prolonged, between mid 2007 and mid 2012, as mortgage rates declined slowly and gently from 6½% to 3½%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=OAHl (interactive graph)
Amazon = leading indicator.
AMZ -16% an hour
befirebefore market close.Edited to add: as promised: TRAMX down 3 cents to $11.53 or -0.26%. YTD, WSJ webpage shows +10.2%. I'm certainly not enjoying all of that, but I am up with it, ytd. My bond funds will pay me overnight, too. They're down, due to both the Market, and to account for the pay-outs. TUHYX and PRFRX. In Frontier Mkt bonds, I'm keeping an eye on AGEPX. No money thrown at it yet.