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Innovation in Reverse - ARKK now down 41% YTD / more than 50% year over year

edited March 2022 in Fund Discussions
I track around 15 funds every day. Helps me better understand the markets and how my own funds are doing. No intent to disparage this fund, the manager or those who own it. But, being down 6.65% today, it caught my eye. It’s probably a good bet for those who like to roll the dice. Hell, you could probably talk me into buying some Monday. And this is not an invitation to dump on Wood. I’d suggest a bit of humility.

Whatever your losses in this miserable year, they likely pale in comparison to this one. Some lessons must surely reside here about risk taking, investing, time horizons … I suppose in the long run it will do fine. One caveat however: Owning a volatile fund’s a bit different than owning a volatile stock. With the former there’s the added impact of redemptions on the fund’s performance by those with less strong tolerances for risk than you possess and who sell at or near the bottom forcing the manager to unload equities at precisely the worst time.

Lipper

Comments

  • @hank

    You seem like a decent person. No reason to walk on eggshells.

    I thought I'd be nibbling in the mid50s but now I still kinda think kooky overvalued holdings of this fund

    Can it get to the high 20s.

    Dunno

    Dumpster fire


    Your last paragraph reasonated with me

    True dat

    Warm regards

    Baseball Fan
  • edited March 2022
    One risk not mentioned is ETFs tend to liquidate at the lowest popularity (worst time) for the theme on which they are built. ARKK with $17b AUM is not anywhere near liquidation. This risk is not relevant to traders but it is for buy and holders.
  • FWIW I believe I read in WSJ where $700 (?) million of new money entered the fund recently.
    Maybe the dippers know something !?
  • "The KWEB (KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF) fell 49.99% in calendar 2021 and is down another 38% YTD in 2022 as of Friday, March 11th." Racing to the bottom?
  • KWEB fell -9.98% just on Friday on dual fears: 1) The SEC starting to list Chinese companies that may be delisted, 2) On realization after Russia-Ukraine war what a huge disaster any China-Taiwan flareup may mean for the huge China weight in the EMs.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KWEB&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p96832865403
  • edited March 2022
    Nasty day Friday. One pundit (supposed market authority) I follow recently acknowledged owning a “speculative” position in Overstock (OSTK). So, I started tracking it. Down over 10% Friday alone. And DKNG, which I once messed around with, was off 8.35% Friday - down to $16 from a year earlier high around $75. There were many “authorities” recommending the stock 6-7 months ago at north of $50 - as well as a lot of institutional ownership back than. TRP was one of the largest shareholders.

    I don’t pretend to understand this game. If I’ve learned anything from life’s experiences it is to be careful about buying down or doubling down on anything. If you want to take a gambit on these high octane stocks, ISTM a fund is preferable to individual stocks.

    Thanks for the reminder ARKK is an ETF. Still hard to get my head around having been limited to traditional mutual funds until quite recently.
  • edited March 2022
    ARKK +10.4% today (3/16). That should alleviate a lot of pain for those who own it.:)
  • msf
    edited March 2022
    10% gain ain't what it used to be, not after a 56% drop (Y/Y as of OP). That is, it only recovered 1/10th of its remaining value, so it's still down around 50% Y/Y.

    March 16, 2021 to March 15, 2022: 43.45% of value remaining (per M* interactive chart)

    Adding in today's performance (rising from $54.39 to $60.04) one gets a remaining pct value of:
    43.45% x (1 + $5.65/$54.39) = 47.96%. It's still down 52% Y/Y.

    Not much pain alleviated.
  • Point taken.

    I was thinking more those who bought in more recently. If it was already down 30-40% when they took the plunge, they may still do OK. Today had to be uplifting for those people. Yes - those who bought closer to the high have a long way to go. The math to recover a loss is skewed against the investor. Ain’t fair!
  • M* finally downgraded ARKK from neutral to negative.
    Manager Cathie Wood has since doubled down on her perilous approach in hopes of a repeat of 2020 ... [nearly halving the number of holdings]. ...

    [No successor with prior management experience; high analyst turnover.]

    The firm has no risk-management personnel. ... Wood has suggested that risk management lies not with her but with those who invest in ARK’s funds.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1086987/why-weve-downgraded-ark-innovation

    The column starts off presenting the fund's less than sterling performance. But we've already beaten that to death.
  • edited April 2022
    I feel bad for the people who bought near the top. This graph near the end is particularly interesting:
    Wood has suggested that risk management lies not with her but with those who invest in ARK’s funds. It’s tough to see why that should be so. ARK could do more to avert severe drawdowns of wealth, and its carelessness on the topic has hurt many investors of late. It could hurt more in the future.
    That is a rather interesting managerial attitude towards risk that seems to me to emerge more from the trader ETF world than the older more paternalistic mutual fund one. But I think it is also unrealistic to think investors who pay for active management don't also expect risk management. It's one thing to buy an index ETF which just tracks a benchmark and getting in and out of it is on the investor, as the fund is unmanaged. It's another to entrust one's money to a manager as a steward of capital long-term. To me, such an attitude is a big caveat emptor. I wonder how many investors in this ETF realized it was really meant more as a trading vehicle than a long-term investment.
  • edited April 2022
    Well said. Thanks @msf and @LewisBraham -

    ARKK is probably up 15% or more from its bottom. (Lipper has it up 12% over the past 4 weeks.) A few lucky or skilled traders have now perhaps gained a bit at the expense of the less fortunate. I’d venture that very few of us have the staying power to ride something like this through thick & thin.

    The volatility is immense. Some of these individual stocks rise or fall 15% in a day or two’s time. Brief reference in recent WSJ article suggesting that “short covering” by hedge funds has something to do with the modest recovery of this market segment. No kidding! The shorts have really dumped on ARKK the past six months or so.

    ”I wonder how many investors in this ETF realized it was really meant more as a trading vehicle than a long-term investment.”

    Me too.
  • edited April 2022

    I feel bad for the people who bought near the top. This graph near the end is particularly interesting:

    Wood has suggested that risk management lies not with her but with those who invest in ARK’s funds. It’s tough to see why that should be so. ARK could do more to avert severe drawdowns of wealth, and its carelessness on the topic has hurt many investors of late. It could hurt more in the future.
    That is a rather interesting managerial attitude towards risk that seems to me to emerge more from the trader ETF world than the older more paternalistic mutual fund one. But I think it is also unrealistic to think investors who pay for active management don't also expect risk management. It's one thing to buy an index ETF which just tracks a benchmark and getting in and out of it is on the investor, as the fund is unmanaged. It's another to entrust one's money to a manager as a steward of capital long-term. To me, such an attitude is a big caveat emptor. I wonder how many investors in this ETF realized it was really meant more as a trading vehicle than a long-term investment.
    Count me in as perhaps one of the few who would agree with Wood. Expecting Wood to be responsible for risk management would be like expecting a high growth tech or biotech fund or an actively managed aggressive mid cap or small cap growth fund to have risk management (maybe some do, but having to hold stocks in those categories I would not expect too much alleviation of risk). Ark funds should be thought of as sector funds in the innovative growth category, and should understandably live or die by how innovative growth stocks are performing. That should be why someone is choosing to invest in ark funds, to gain exposure to that category (and for me personally if I chose to invest in that category I would not want the manager to deviate from that style). If an investor has an outsized degree of exposure to such an aggressive growth type fund, that is the investor’s fault. If an investor is concerned about risk, ark funds should only be held on the periphery compared to the core of the portfolio. It is up to the investor to have at least some degree of knowledge what they are investing in (and some degree of knowledge about investing in general), particularly if deciding to venture outside conventional passively managed index funds. It is up to individuals to understand asset allocation and that various investments should only serve as part of the greater whole, and if they don’t understand that then maybe they should not be making their own investing decisions.
  • point - counter point! Investor - non investor (gambler)
  • edited April 2022
    “It is up to the investor to have at least some degree of knowledge what they are investing in (and some degree of knowledge about investing in general) … .”

    The “Catch22” here - Most of us acquire that knowledge gradually over years of experience.
    Oh … of course there are books on the subject.

    One of the better arguments in favor of target date funds I’ve heard.
  • edited April 2022
    If one assumes zero risk control, high volatility and short-term speculation as opposed to long-term investment, what is the advantage of ARKK over a leveraged tech oriented ETF like TQQQ?
  • Hey Team,

    Hmm...interesting comments...couple thoughts...

    - watched Josh Brown's Compound Show Podcast yesterday, (btw, great podcast, he brings on some heavy hitters, relevant, fresh thinking, not same ole, same ole, keeps it real, some f bombs etc), had Adam Parker (Trivariate Research, formerly Chief US Equity Strategist and Global Dir of Quantitative Research, Morgan Stanley) on, convo dabbled on going out on risk curve...Mr Parker mentions (paraphrasing) he'd rather go long some Biotech small/mid stocks and short the profitless software stocks"...don't recall if he positoned the convo as an alternate to the Wood/Ark, my interpretation was if he was to go very aggressive he'd rather do that....you'll have to listen for yourself.

    Also, curious as to why all the attentionon Wood/Arkk...meself, if I was to "go for it", I'd rather invest with the Zevenberger growth funds...ZVNIX, ZVGNX (Genea fund)...they both smoke ARKK in the past 3 years...I think they seem more rational, don't come across as somewhat "kooky" (whatever that means these days)....been doing this agressive innovation investing thing for a while...why no one mention here?? Is it because polarizing figures like Wood get more eyeballs, invoke more emotion..?

    Best Regards and Good Health to ALL,

    Baseball Fan
  • edited April 2022
    “Also, curious as to why all the attentionon Wood/Arkk...meself,”

    Agree. The fund has ISTM received an inordinate amount of commentary in the media (and perhaps here). I guess the media likes bright and shiny objects - likes them even better after the gloss fades and they become objects of derision.

    @Baseball_Fan ‘s comments spark a few additional questions …

    (1) To what extent do CNBC & others allow ratings (ie advertising dollars) to affect what they cover and how they cover it? My uninformed guess is that ratings matter a great deal more than whether viewers’ pocketbooks are well served.

    (2) To what extent is “salesmanship” important to running a fund?

    (3) Is there something special about Wood’s demeanor / public persona that tends to attract some investors and/or foster a cult following?

    These type of stocks offer little appeal to me. But were I to find a niche in my portfolio for them, I’d rather research 4 or 5 individual stocks on my own and invest small sums directly in them, figuring 1 or 2 will go bust, but 2 or 3 might prosper. The advantage is you are less at the mercy of fund flows than owning them through a fund. Individual investors are also more nimble ISTM than a manager of billions - able to get in and out of positions more quickly.

    I think of the great investors / fund managers who inspired me over the years. Names like John Templeton, John Bogle or Michael Price. I see them shaking their heads at the Wood methodology and sales pitch.
  • What tool(s) do you guys use to look up the short interest in ARKK or in any ETF?
  • edited April 2022
    @BaluBalu - Not perhaps the answer you want. But look at inflows into SARK which opened in November. According to Lipper it already has $324 M + in assets. The fund shorts the stocks ARKK owns. There’s probably is information out there on short interest. But just from general reading I’ve seen that it has garnered much short interest among hedge funds.
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