I track around 15 funds every day. Helps me better understand the markets and how my own funds are doing. No intent to disparage this fund, the manager or those who own it. But, being down 6.65% today, it caught my eye. It’s probably a good bet for those who like to roll the dice. Hell, you could probably talk me into buying some Monday. And this is not an invitation to dump on Wood. I’d suggest a bit of humility.
Whatever your losses in this miserable year, they likely pale in comparison to this one. Some lessons must surely reside here about risk taking, investing, time horizons … I suppose in the long run it will do fine. One caveat however: Owning a volatile fund’s a bit different than owning a volatile stock. With the former there’s the added impact of redemptions on the fund’s performance by those with less strong tolerances for risk than you possess and who sell at or near the bottom forcing the manager to unload equities at precisely the worst time.
Lipper
Comments
You seem like a decent person. No reason to walk on eggshells.
I thought I'd be nibbling in the mid50s but now I still kinda think kooky overvalued holdings of this fund
Can it get to the high 20s.
Dunno
Dumpster fire
Your last paragraph reasonated with me
True dat
Warm regards
Baseball Fan
Maybe the dippers know something !?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KWEB&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p96832865403
I don’t pretend to understand this game. If I’ve learned anything from life’s experiences it is to be careful about buying down or doubling down on anything. If you want to take a gambit on these high octane stocks, ISTM a fund is preferable to individual stocks.
Thanks for the reminder ARKK is an ETF. Still hard to get my head around having been limited to traditional mutual funds until quite recently.
March 16, 2021 to March 15, 2022: 43.45% of value remaining (per M* interactive chart)
Adding in today's performance (rising from $54.39 to $60.04) one gets a remaining pct value of:
43.45% x (1 + $5.65/$54.39) = 47.96%. It's still down 52% Y/Y.
Not much pain alleviated.
I was thinking more those who bought in more recently. If it was already down 30-40% when they took the plunge, they may still do OK. Today had to be uplifting for those people. Yes - those who bought closer to the high have a long way to go. The math to recover a loss is skewed against the investor. Ain’t fair!
The column starts off presenting the fund's less than sterling performance. But we've already beaten that to death.
ARKK is probably up 15% or more from its bottom. (Lipper has it up 12% over the past 4 weeks.) A few lucky or skilled traders have now perhaps gained a bit at the expense of the less fortunate. I’d venture that very few of us have the staying power to ride something like this through thick & thin.
The volatility is immense. Some of these individual stocks rise or fall 15% in a day or two’s time. Brief reference in recent WSJ article suggesting that “short covering” by hedge funds has something to do with the modest recovery of this market segment. No kidding! The shorts have really dumped on ARKK the past six months or so. Me too.
The “Catch22” here - Most of us acquire that knowledge gradually over years of experience.
Oh … of course there are books on the subject.
One of the better arguments in favor of target date funds I’ve heard.
Hmm...interesting comments...couple thoughts...
- watched Josh Brown's Compound Show Podcast yesterday, (btw, great podcast, he brings on some heavy hitters, relevant, fresh thinking, not same ole, same ole, keeps it real, some f bombs etc), had Adam Parker (Trivariate Research, formerly Chief US Equity Strategist and Global Dir of Quantitative Research, Morgan Stanley) on, convo dabbled on going out on risk curve...Mr Parker mentions (paraphrasing) he'd rather go long some Biotech small/mid stocks and short the profitless software stocks"...don't recall if he positoned the convo as an alternate to the Wood/Ark, my interpretation was if he was to go very aggressive he'd rather do that....you'll have to listen for yourself.
Also, curious as to why all the attentionon Wood/Arkk...meself, if I was to "go for it", I'd rather invest with the Zevenberger growth funds...ZVNIX, ZVGNX (Genea fund)...they both smoke ARKK in the past 3 years...I think they seem more rational, don't come across as somewhat "kooky" (whatever that means these days)....been doing this agressive innovation investing thing for a while...why no one mention here?? Is it because polarizing figures like Wood get more eyeballs, invoke more emotion..?
Best Regards and Good Health to ALL,
Baseball Fan
Agree. The fund has ISTM received an inordinate amount of commentary in the media (and perhaps here). I guess the media likes bright and shiny objects - likes them even better after the gloss fades and they become objects of derision.
@Baseball_Fan ‘s comments spark a few additional questions …
(1) To what extent do CNBC & others allow ratings (ie advertising dollars) to affect what they cover and how they cover it? My uninformed guess is that ratings matter a great deal more than whether viewers’ pocketbooks are well served.
(2) To what extent is “salesmanship” important to running a fund?
(3) Is there something special about Wood’s demeanor / public persona that tends to attract some investors and/or foster a cult following?
These type of stocks offer little appeal to me. But were I to find a niche in my portfolio for them, I’d rather research 4 or 5 individual stocks on my own and invest small sums directly in them, figuring 1 or 2 will go bust, but 2 or 3 might prosper. The advantage is you are less at the mercy of fund flows than owning them through a fund. Individual investors are also more nimble ISTM than a manager of billions - able to get in and out of positions more quickly.
I think of the great investors / fund managers who inspired me over the years. Names like John Templeton, John Bogle or Michael Price. I see them shaking their heads at the Wood methodology and sales pitch.