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AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/9/22

For the week ending on 3/9/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (45.8%; high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (24.4%; low); neutral became the middle sentiment (30.2%; below average). The overall Sentiment remained bearish. In the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), the disastrous Russian-Ukraine war dragged on (there have been multiple failed talks & even those for evacuation corridors for civilians have been contentious; almost 5% of Ukraine population has become refugee). Stocks, bonds & commodities remained very volatile & major market averages were down in 4 of the 5 Survey days; the inflation readings remained very high (& that without food, energy & housing); the long-awaited March FOMC meeting is next week (25 bps rate hike is expected but watch for signals for more rate hikes & Fed balance sheet reduction).


  • 25 bps rate hike is expected but watch for signals for more rate hikes & Fed balance sheet reduction
    The rate hike is long overdue. The Fed has been stimulated the market too readily since 2008 with QEs. Now the investors have the price to pay on high inflation. This morning inflation rate is at 7.5%. How many 25 bps rate hike is needed in order to get to 2.0 or perhaps 2.5% this year?

    Now with the Ukraine war that affects oil price and agriculture products. This year will be a challenging one and the investor's sentiment reflect that.
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