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Fund Allocations (Cumulative)

yogibearbullyogibearbull
edited February 2022 in Fund Discussions
Using the ICI monthly data on the assets of US mutual funds (OEFs) and ETFs, following are the cumulative fund allocations among stock, hybrid, bond and money-market funds. Hybrid funds include stocks and bonds but their ratios can vary widely. Funds-of-funds are not included to avoid double-counting. These data are not expected to change much month by month but may change notably over time. ICI data are published late in the month for the prior month. One can call these America's asset allocation.
https://www.ici.org/statistics

12/31/21

OEFs: Stocks 54.6%, Hybrids 6.9%, Bonds 20.9%, M-Mkt 17.6%

ETFs: Stocks 82.3%, Hybrids 0.6%, Bonds 17.1%, M-Mkt N/A

OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.4%, Hybrids 5.6%, Bonds 20.1%, M-Mkt 13.9%

LINK

Comments

  • beebee
    Looks like a 60/40 portfolio...interesting.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    1/31/22

    There is a noticeable decrease in stock allocations. These are gross industry statistics and even small shifts mean billions.

    OEFs: Stocks 53.6%, Hybrids 7.0%, Bonds 21.4%, M-Mkt 18.0%

    ETFs: Stocks 82.0%, Hybrids 0.6%, Bonds 17.4%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 59.6%, Hybrids 5.7%, Bonds 20.5%, M-Mkt 14.2%

    LINK
  • MikeMMikeM
    @yogibearbull, is the drop in stock allocation just due to stocks dropping in value more so than the other investment categories through January? Or does this suggest a managed effort to change portfolio percentages?
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    @MikeM, the monthly asset snapshot data presented included changes from price declines and asset outflows.

    But ICI also has data on monthly (and weekly) fund flows. For January, there were outflows from all broad categories of mutual funds. The picture for ETFs is different as there is some secular shift going on from mutual funds to ETFs.

    Mutual Funds (Monthly) https://www.ici.org/research/stats/trends_01_22
    ETFs (Monthly) https://www.ici.org/research/stats/etf/etfs_01_22
    Mutual Funds & ETFs (Weekly) https://www.ici.org/research/stats/combined_flows
  • MikeMMikeM
    Thanks yogi.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    edited March 2022
    2/28/22

    Tiny changes from previous month.

    OEFs: Stocks 53.3%, Hybrids 7.1%, Bonds 21.5%, M-Mkt 18.2%

    ETFs: Stocks 81.9%, Hybrids 0.6%, Bonds 17.5%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 59.4%, Hybrids 5.7%, Bonds 20.6%, M-Mkt 14.3%

    LINK
  • BaluBalu
    For OEFs & ETFs combined, changes vs 12/31 are not big. I think equity markets were down quite a bit but investors seem to be reallocating / rebalancing contemporaneously. Buy the dip is alive and well?!
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    3/31/22

    Tiny changes from previous month. These 3 months YTD have seen lot of volatility but the fund investors have stayed put.

    OEFs: Stocks 53.99%, Hybrids 7.09%, Bonds 20.77%, M-Mkt 18.16%

    ETFs: Stocks 82.51%, Hybrids 0.54%, Bonds 16.94%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.18%, Hybrids 5.67%, Bonds 19.94%, M-Mkt 14.22%

    LINK
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    edited May 2022
    4/30/22

    In response to high market volatility, finally there was a noticeable shift from stock funds to bond & m-mkt funds. A tiny shift was also seen into hybrid funds. The changes from the last month are for a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $32 trillion, so +/- 1% change is about +/- $320 billion. Also note that these changes are from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.

    OEFs: Stocks 52.54%, Hybrids 7.16%, Bonds 21.25%, M-Mkt 19.05%

    ETFs: Stocks 81.66%, Hybrids 0.55%, Bonds 17.79%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 58.81%, Hybrids 5.74%, Bonds 20.50%, M-Mkt 14.95%

    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=645
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    edited June 2022
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 5/31/22

    While high market volatility continued, there were very minor changes in fund allocations, so fund investors stayed put. The changes from the last month are for a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $30.24 trillion, so +/- 1% change is about +/- $302.4 billion. Also note that these changes are from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.

    OEFs: Stocks 52.65%, Hybrids 7.22%, Bonds 21.03%, M-Mkt 19.10%

    ETFs: Stocks 81.31%, Hybrids 0.55%, Bonds 18.14%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 58.89%, Hybrids 5.76%, Bonds 20.40%, M-Mkt 14.95%

    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=688
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 6/30/22

    There were notable declines in the equity fund allocations. The changes in the totals are based on a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $30.25 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change is about +/- $302.5 billion. Also note that these changes are from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.

    OEFs: Stocks 51.00%, Hybrids 7.14%, Bonds 21.50%, M-Mkt 20.36%

    ETFs: Stocks 80.33%, Hybrids 0.54%, Bonds 19.13%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 57.35%, Hybrids 5.71%, Bonds 20.99%, M-Mkt 15.96%

    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=717
  • BaluBalu
    In the month of June, decrease in equity allocation and increase in MM allocation is notable. However, given humans are creating new wealth all the time, it is difficult for me to infer from the %ages if there were outflows vs if new wealth created was going more to MM funds.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    edited July 2022
    @BaluBalu, the MONTHLY fund ASSET data only suggest that there MIGHT be equity fund outflows but other data do indicate outflows from equity and other fund categories, and inflows into m-mkt funds. The long-term asset pattern is that after the %Equity allocation bottomed in March 2020, it peaked in March 2022 and is now the lowest since. Other data:

    1. ICI WEEKLY data on fund FLOWS indicates steady fund outflows.

    2. Barron's WEEKLY data on 4-week moving average (4-wMA) of fund flows show outflows from stock and bond funds, and inflows into m-mkt funds (currently inflows of +$7 billion/week).

    3. Anecdotal data from posters here and other forums that they have sold or reduced stock/bond exposure and have moved into Treasuries, and lately into m-mkt funds.

    4. Rates have gone up and m-mkt funds are now starting to pay some interest.
  • BaluBalu
    Thanks, @yogibearbull
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Weekly equity fund flows have turned positive, Lipper data via WSJ tweet. https://twitter.com/GunjanJS/status/1552820684014948352

    image
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    edited August 2022
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 7/31/22

    There were notable moves into stock funds from other categories. The changes in the totals were based on a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $29.46 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $294.6 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.

    OEFs: Stocks 52.45%, Hybrids 7.11%, Bonds 20.87%, M-Mkt 19.57%

    ETFs: Stocks 80.81%, Hybrids 0.53%, Bonds 18.66%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 58.68%, Hybrids 5.66%, Bonds 20.39%, M-Mkt 15.27%

    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=760
  • BaluBalu
    Talk (e.g., many sentiment surveys) does not seem to match with behavior, which still points to a FOMO behavior. I suspect, rate hikes and QT will continue until behavior is modified and the Fed may not pay attention to sentiment surveys (even though the Fed conducts surveys).
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    I don't track AAII Asset Allocation Survey as it is based on surveys and thus prone to large errors - I doubt that respondents really do thorough calculations required for portfolio allocation determination.

    However, it shows stock allocation at 64.5%, an increase of +0.5%; that is higher than its historical average of 61.5%.

    On the other hand, the allocations reported here are based on actual (previous) month-end exposures/allocations of OEFs, ETFs, PEF + ETFs.
  • BaluBalu
    Thanks, @yogibearbull. Based on the data in this thread, throughout 2022, the equity levels have been the same, except in June when they were only 1% lower, which I can ascribe to June price decline. Seems like investors are aggressively rebalancing to maintain equity levels. What is surprising is, a lot of hedge funds currently are very low on net equity exposure relative to 2021 and their standard allocation and so some other categories like mutual funds, ETFs, pension funds, retail stock investors, etc. must be making up the short fall at hedge funds.

    Interestingly, ARKK had >800M outflows in August (inclusive of nearly $200M of inflows on August 24). It had inflows only on 5 days of the month. SARK had ~150M inflows in August but most of the inflows came in the first two weeks and most of the outflows were in the second two weeks of August.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 8/31/22

    There were minor declines in the stock funds. The changes in the totals were based on a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $29.95 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $299.5 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.

    OEFs: Stocks 51.77%, Hybrids 7.09%, Bonds 21.02%, M-Mkt 20.12%

    ETFs: Stocks 80.49%, Hybrids 0.53%, Bonds 18.98%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 58.09%, Hybrids 5.65%, Bonds 20.57%, M-Mkt 15.70%

    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=791
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 9/30/22

    There were notable declines in the stock and hybrid funds. The changes in the totals were based on a total OEFs & ETFs AUM of about $29.05 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $290.5 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.

    OEFs: Stocks 50.28%, Hybrids 6.77%, Bonds 21.39%, M-Mkt 21.57%

    ETFs: Stocks 79.38%, Hybrids 0.54%, Bonds 20.08%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 56.61%, Hybrids 5.41%, Bonds 21.10%, M-Mkt 16.88%

    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=816
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    edited November 2022
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 10/31/22

    There were notable increases in the allocations to stock funds, and declines in those for bond and m-mkt funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $27.05 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $270.5 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.

    OEFs: Stocks 51.85%, Hybrids 6.76%, Bonds 20.32%, M-Mkt 21.06%

    ETFs: Stocks 80.40%, Hybrids 0.49%, Bonds 19.11%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 58.24%, Hybrids 5.36%, Bonds 20.05%, M-Mkt 16.35%

    Edit/Add: Total AUM for OEFs + ETFs was $34.148 trillion on 12/31/21. It may have bottomed at $27.089 trillion on 9/30/22. A small rebound was seen to $28.172 trillion on 10/31/22.

    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=852
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 11/30/22

    There were notable increases in the allocations to stock funds, and declines in those for bond and m-mkt funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $28.17 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $281.7 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.

    OEFs: Stocks 52.77%, Hybrids 6.77%, Bonds 20.00%, M-Mkt 20.46%

    ETFs: Stocks 80.85%, Hybrids 0.47%, Bonds 18.68%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 59.17%, Hybrids 5.33%, Bonds 19.7%, M-Mkt 15.79%

    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=1&scrollTo=879
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    edited January 2023
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 12/31/22

    There was notable decrease in the allocations to stock funds, & those for bond & m-mkt funds rose; hybrid allocations held. Y-o-Y, combined AUM fell -16.16%. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $29.58 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $295.8 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.

    OEFs: Stocks 51.35%, Hybrids 6.73%, Bonds 20.32%, M-Mkt 21.61%

    ETFs: Stocks 80.05%, Hybrids 0.47%, Bonds 19.48%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 57.85%, Hybrids 5.31%, Bonds 20.13%, M-Mkt 16.71%

    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/245/fund-allocations-cumulative-monthly?page=2&scrollTo=915
  • Sven
    Informative data that suggest investors are still cautious. Can you blame them after they got disappointed badly in 2022. Hopefully the bulk of rate hike is behind us and stocks and bonds are turning more positive in 2023.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 01/31/23

    There were minor shifts due to market rebound. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $28.59 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $285.9 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes.

    OEFs: Stocks 52.50%, Hybrids 6.68%, Bonds 20.04%, M-Mkt 20.78%

    ETFs: Stocks 80.49%, Hybrids 0.48%, Bonds 19.03%, M-Mkt N/A

    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 58.94%, Hybrids 5.26%, Bonds 19.81%, M-Mkt 15.99%

    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/952
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