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PRWCX Shakey Start to Year

edited January 25 in Fund Discussions
-1.28% today

-4.98% YTD as of yesterday.

I get negative 6.26 percent for the first 3 trading weeks of the new year.

We’re it a growth or tech fund, I’d understand. But any number of value oriented conservative funds are running circles around it this year, including DODBX & OAKBX

Comments

  • In yogibearbull's chart DODBX seems to be running circles around a fair number of funds. According to the same chart @hank's -6.26% is pretty darned close.
  • Tech and growth funds are down closer to 15%
  • DODBX is value-oriented while PRWCX is blend/growth oriented. Tech has taken a big hit in the last 3 weeks, so it’s not real surprising. I was somewhat disappointed with today’s relatively large drop. In one of my retirement portfolios, I’ve combined VWIAX with TRAIX to get exposure to both value and growth. A few weeks is not enough time to adequately assess its performance as a whole.
  • Perhaps 1 balanced fund isn't enough-pair PRWCX with a value balanced fund like OAKBX which has lost -2.22%
  • Don't forget strategy change including some short positions for DODBX.
  • edited January 25
    Giroux favors the big ones. Probably out of necessity at this point. GE was his top pick in the recent Barron’s roundtable. Also Amazon and Kerug/Dr. Pepper. OAKBX also leads it by a few % points.
    To be down that much in less than a month is concerning. Either the markets have it wrong (which I doubt) or he does.

    In recent cnbc interview (late December) he mentioned waiting for more “blood” on the street before buying. So … chances are he’s nibbling. And, as I reported a week ago, he’s jacked up his leveraged loans. I think I’ve heard the lower rated paper isn’t doing so well presently. That’s one thing about OAKBX - they were mainly investment grade paper as I recall. D&C plays a bit in high yield, but not to the extent Giroux appears to be.
  • Don't forget strategy change including some short positions for DODBX.

    I’ve been thinking about that. They see the writing on the wall re interest rates and are looking to move a bit away. I don’t expect major changes. More flexibility / investment options I suppose.

  • edited January 25
    PRWCX/TRAIX has an excellent long-term record, so I’m planning to stick with it. It’s losing about 72% of the S&P 500 index YTD. This is about on par so far with what it dropped in 2008 relative to the S&P.
  • edited January 25
    I have to admit I'm slightly envious of long-term PRWCX investors.
    If anyone is disappointed with the fund's recent performance and is interested in liquidating their position, perhaps we can strike a deal? ;-)
  • Roy
    edited January 25
    Regarding PRWCX/TRAIX, we are shareholders since 2006 and have no plans to go anywhere else. We continue to add to our positions in the fund.
  • Giroux has a fantastic long term record. SP500 is about 9% off its last peak so this isn't even technically a correction yet. I track the rolling 36 month average of a fund to make hold/sell decisions, three weeks is wholly insufficient imo to make any kind of determination.
  • edited January 25
    hank said:

    Giroux favors the big ones. Probably out of necessity at this point. GE was his top pick in the recent Barron’s roundtable. Also Amazon and Kerug/Dr. Pepper. OAKBX also leads it by a few % points.
    To be down that much in less than a month is concerning. Either the markets have it wrong (which I doubt) or he does.

    In recent cnbc interview (late December) he mentioned waiting for more “blood” on the street before buying. So … chances are he’s nibbling. And, as I reported a week ago, he’s jacked up his leveraged loans. I think I’ve heard the lower rated paper isn’t doing so well presently. That’s one thing about OAKBX - they were mainly investment grade paper as I recall. D&C plays a bit in high yield, but not to the extent Giroux appears to be.

    **********************
    TRP Floating Rate PRFRX is now 8% of my stuff. The only holding that's above the zero-line so far in 2022. (Apart from a minuscule position in ENIC, the Chilean Electric utility, which pays a tiny supplemental "interim" dividend on Friday.) Yes, as of tonight, 25th Jan, PRWCX is down -6.2% YTD. I'd be adding, if it were strategically sound for me to do so.

    TUHYX HY is down -1.44% YTD, too. Also 8% of my stuff. But these are long-hold positions for me.
    ***********************
    PRWCX. Microsoft 7.5%
    Amazon. 5.27%
    GE. 4.4%
    PNC. 3.8%
    YUM 3.7%

    Yes, "da BIG ones!" As @hank said.
    PRWCX is still my biggest holding, at one-third of total assets, which includes a bit of stuff which is NOT with TRP. YTD, my stuff is down precisely -4.0%. It could be lots worse.

  • stayCalm said:

    SP500 is about 9% off its last peak so this isn't even technically a correction yet.

    The S&P 500 ended with a 0.3 percent gain, but not before plunging to a point where it was more than 10 percent below its Jan. 3 record. That kind of drop, called a correction, doesn’t happen often, and is a marker of investors’ souring attitudes toward stocks.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/business/economy/us-stock-market-correction-territory.html

    That was as of Jan 24th. Today the S&P 500 again dipped below its Jan. 3 peak (hitting a low of 4287.11 per Yahoo). Does it really matter whether the index drop is "technically" a correction? What's the difference between dropping 9.99% and 10.01%?

    As the NYTimes puts it, "The 10 percent trigger for a correction is an arbitrary, round-number threshold. But it serves as a signal that investors have turned pointedly more pessimistic about the market."
  • edited January 26
    Stock market corrections are often defined as 10% to <20% declines of market indexes from recent highs.
    Using the same convention, bear markets occur when declines are 20% or greater.
    These number thresholds were arbitrarily assigned (why not 15% and 30%?) and have little meaning.
    Let's look at two prior "corrections" for the S&P 500.

    Peak_________Trough_________Loss

    9/20/2018_____12/24/2018_____‐19.8%

    7/16/1990_____10/11/1990_____‐19.9%

    Technically, both drawdowns are considered to be corrections.
    However, they're within 0.2% of an "official" bear market.
    Excluding statisticians, does it really matter if these drawdowns are classified as corrections or bear markets?
  • Interesting 3 weeks, but I would say irrelevant.

    :) I'm going to wager a guess here and say over a decade+ of superior management, there may have been a few other 3-4 weeks (maybe months) of underperformance for PRWCX versus peers.

    There are similar short-view comments in a different post about Grandeur Peak funds. PRWCX and GPGOX are my #1 and #2 funds by weight. I wouldn't cash in either.
  • @MikeM : I'm thinking I'm more like a deer caught in the headlights ! Recently made a buy & then a day later looking to sell something else, growth, but couldn't pull the trigger !! Probably should start nibbling ?!
    Do you own GP Contrarian ?

    Enjoy the ride, Derf
  • @MikeM : I'm thinking I'm more like a deer caught in the headlights ! Recently made a buy & then a day later looking to sell something else, growth, but couldn't pull the trigger !! Probably should start nibbling ?!
    Do you own GP Contrarian ?
    Hi @Derf. No, I never saw a reason to own more than 1 GP fund since I think they are all pretty similar with small tweaks in style (something David concluded also in one of his commentaries). The Contrarian Fund may be different to that thought - contrarian to that thought so to speak:) , but a minimal # of funds has been my goal the last couple years.
  • edited January 26
    I don't look at intra day numbers to define off high/low because intra day is way too noisy. Even daily is noisy imo and I would prefer weekly or monthly but I need to find a tool that allows me easy access to weekly and monthly peaks without whipping out the calculator and reading charts.
    msf said:

    stayCalm said:

    SP500 is about 9% off its last peak so this isn't even technically a correction yet.

    The S&P 500 ended with a 0.3 percent gain, but not before plunging to a point where it was more than 10 percent below its Jan. 3 record. That kind of drop, called a correction, doesn’t happen often, and is a marker of investors’ souring attitudes toward stocks.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/business/economy/us-stock-market-correction-territory.html

    That was as of Jan 24th. Today the S&P 500 again dipped below its Jan. 3 peak (hitting a low of 4287.11 per Yahoo). Does it really matter whether the index drop is "technically" a correction? What's the difference between dropping 9.99% and 10.01%?

    As the NYTimes puts it, "The 10 percent trigger for a correction is an arbitrary, round-number threshold. But it serves as a signal that investors have turned pointedly more pessimistic about the market."
  • msf
    edited January 26
    By weekly or monthly peaks do you mean simply a rollup or summary of each week's values that shows the highest intraday (instantaneous) value achieved during that week? I'm not sure if that's what you're looking for since you add that intraday data is too noisy.

    Perhaps you're looking for easy access to each week's closing value. Then one could calculate a monthly peak as the highest of the weekly closes, much as one might calculate a monthly peak as the highest daily close over the month. Either way, this is filtering out some noise. In the former, one is filtering out even daily fluctuations. In the latter, one is filtering out only intraday fluctuations.

    Whatever. Here's Yahoo's weekly data for the S&P 500 (and its pre-1957 predecessor) going back to 1927. Since it gives both weekly instantaneous highs and weekly closes, it gives you whichever you're looking for. Digital, discrete. No analog charts, no mouseovers needed.

    Yahoo weekly historical S&P 500 data (Yahoo can also return monthly data rather than weekly data.)

    Unfortunately, not downloadable, likely due to licensing issues:
    Please note: This [download] feature is not available for all instruments due to data licensing restrictions, in which case the "Download" option is not present.
    https://help.yahoo.com/kb/SLN2311.html
  • edited January 26
    @msf
    The yahoo table of weekly closes is good.

    I'm looking for the equivalent(with same ease of use) of the canned view I get from Barchart (I have a screenshot but can't figure out how to paste it in here) which shows a % off high but for the weekly(close) and monthly(close) datapoints.
  • edited January 26
    I see many screenshots in posts. I'm stumped, how is this being done? When I click on the image icon in the editor I get prompted for a URL and it does not like the path on my laptop that leads to a jpg file
  • I have to admit I'm slightly envious of long-term PRWCX investors.
    If anyone is disappointed with the fund's recent performance and is interested in liquidating their position, perhaps we can strike a deal? ;-)

    Hahahaha! Love this! Please add me to the list!

  • edited January 26
    MikeW said:

    I have to admit I'm slightly envious of long-term PRWCX investors.
    If anyone is disappointed with the fund's recent performance and is interested in liquidating their position, perhaps we can strike a deal? ;-)

    Hahahaha! Love this! Please add me to the list!

    Happy to transfer shares at $500 each!!! /ducks
  • edited January 26
    I can empathize. I was "hot" for PRWCX for many years. Finally I landed with an RIA who transferred 1 stock of TRAIX(instl version of PRWCX) to me! Yes I am a Giroux groupie!
  • Embedded Images at MFO

    @stayCalm, MFO allows only the images hosted elsewhere, so you need their URLs.

    Some sites such as M*, etc allow images both ways - direct uploads from PC and URLs from image hosting sites. These uploaded images from PC to M* can also be linked at MFO. That is the trick I have used.

    One can also create a public link for a image at Google Drive or OneDrive or Dropbox and then use that at MFO.
  • @yogibearbull

    Thank you, yea that is painful the image workaround.
  • MikeM said:

    @MikeM : I'm thinking I'm more like a deer caught in the headlights ! Recently made a buy & then a day later looking to sell something else, growth, but couldn't pull the trigger !! Probably should start nibbling ?!
    Do you own GP Contrarian ?
    Hi @Derf. No, I never saw a reason to own more than 1 GP fund since I think they are all pretty similar with small tweaks in style (something David concluded also in one of his commentaries). The Contrarian Fund may be different to that thought - contrarian to that thought so to speak:) , but a minimal # of funds has been my goal the last couple years.
    I think Contrarian is different from the others. It is more of a small cap value fund with a lower PE. YTD, most of their funds are down a good bit, but Contrarian has performed differently, dropping much less. I would agree that the remainder of their funds perform similarly.
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