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It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future

"On Oct. 15, 1929, the pre-eminent economist in the U.S., Irving Fisher of Yale University, captured headlines by declaring stocks had reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau.' That day, the Dow closed at 347.24. Less than two weeks later, the Crash of 1929 began. The Dow finally hit bedrock on July 8, 1932, at 41.22."

"On Jan. 7, 1981, the popular technical analyst Joe Granville told his newsletter subscribers to 'sell everything.' The Dow, then about 1000, tumbled 3.9% in two days on then-record trading volume. In November 1985 he called for the Dow, then around 1400, to sink to "600 or lower" within six months. Instead the index shot above 1800."

"In 2010, Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, a newsletter publisher and data service in Gainesville, Ga., called for the Dow (then around 10000) to fall below 1000 within six years. Six years later, the index was at roughly 18000."

"This week, the book 'Dow 36,000' by James Glassman and Kevin Hassett turned out to be prophetic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average should hit that mark 'very quickly,' 'immediately,' even 'today,' the book had proclaimed. The book was published Oct. 1, 1999, when the Dow closed at 10273. More than 22 years later, the index very briefly crossed the mark at 9:42 a.m. on Monday, in a moment barely noticed by investors."



  • It's very easy to make predictions.

    It's extremely difficult to make ACCURATE and TIMELY predictions, especially for the near-term.[1]

    ... but unfortunately, the financal infotainment media/punditocracy have very short memories and just need people who clean up nicely for television and/or can issue nifty opinions and pithy nuggets that sound informed which can sell newsletters or advertising time. Ane most average joe/jane investors don't have the wherewithal or awareness to do further research or thinking about such prognostications....and thus trade on emotions and soundbytes, not rationality or a plan.

    [1] i.e., being "right but very early" is considered "wrong"
  • edited January 2
    Yogi Berra approves your message.

    If any brokers did have solid information on future performance of Asset classes, they would certainly keep it for their own "proprietary" portfolio. But none of them really can predict the future.

    It would be fun to see the difference between the reports Goldman Sachs distributes to the public vs. how they position themselves internally.

    Too many Portfolio Mgrs will simply "talk their book".

    How much longer can a Cathie Wood stay in the spotlight. Was she really so insightful?
    Were Bill Gross or Jeffrey Gundlach really Bond Kings? Some names carry buzz for a while. Then it all wears off as their luck runs out, and we look for the next investing prophets. False prophets all.
  • edited January 3
    I agree that many in the financial industry "talk their book."
    Early in his career, Jack Bogle was told everything you need to know if you're going into the investment business. The advice was short and sweet: Nobody knows nothing.
  • edited January 3
    Nice thing about the internet is that you can Google and come up with just about any informed opinion to support your particular investment point of view. Bear market? Bull market? Gold up? Gold down? It’s all out there - often intelligently presented.

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