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Why do you still own Bond Funds?

13

Comments

  • edited June 2021
    Bloomberg TV caught my attention this evening with a “breaking story” that Goldman Sachs had just advised investors to “short the U.S. 30 year Treasury Bond” because rates were about to soar.

    Hmm … When I Googled that, I discovered that Goldman’s been advising that same thing every year at least since 2017. One of these times they’re bound to be right.

    @Crash - I feel your pain. Bonds may not pay much, but with limited duration investment grade bond funds you can pretty much depend on getting your money back - albeit possibly not worth as much as when you invested it. On the other hand, in a frenzied equity, real estate or commodes market you can lose quite a lot.
  • As someone who invest all hid money in bond OEFs and trade stock/CEFs only a few times annually.
    PIMIX/PONAX: I sold on 01/2018 and never looked back.

    What had been looking good YTD without revealing my own funds:
    RPIDX: The manager used to work at PIMCO, YTD=7.3 TTM yield=3
    CLMAX: special securitized/MBS with shorting treasuries. It does better than most when rate rise. YTD=6.2 TTM yield=3.9
    DBLIX: special securitized/MBS. YTD=5.2 TTM yield=3.8
    NVHAX: HY Muni shorter term. You can use it in taxable and/or instead of some of your IG funds. YTD=5.2% TTM yield=3.5

    There is always something that does well.
  • edited June 2021
    @Crash - I feel your pain. Bonds may not pay much, but with limited duration investment grade bond funds you can pretty much depend on getting your money back - albeit possibly not worth as much as when you invested it. On the other hand, in a frenzied equity, real estate or commodes market you can lose quite a lot.

    ...Well, I did a quick weighted average, looking at my bond funds. There's just the three of them, plus the bonds in BRUFX and PRWCX. I did not count those in the average. Anyhow, what I'm coming up with is an average yield of 2.78%. I don't wanna go EM or HY. (I GUESS these funds of mine include SOME of those, anyhow.) Munis don't make sense. The ones I've selected are working. "Steady-Eddies." It's not 3% but close enough for me. They all keep growing, via re-invested dividends as well as the minimal amount I buy monthly, automatically, in PTIAX.
  • edited June 2021
    @Crash,

    Everybody’s different. However, personally I pay little attention to “return” on bonds. They’re kept primarily for life support in the event the unthinkable occurs. Very similar to the life-rafts stowed on a sailing vessel or the oxygen masks in the overhead compartment on a plane. Hope you never need to rely on them.

    I hope that better quality, longer duration bonds continue to suck air. Because if they begin to perform well in a meaningful way it means that other, riskier, markets (including junk bonds) are in a heap of trouble.

    “Be careful what you wish for”
  • edited June 2021
    RPIDX: another 0.4% today and 7.7% for YTD.

    I don't worry about market crashes, I sell, so, bring it on, the faster and deeper is better because the recovery will be much better too;-)
  • bee said:

    Buffet's Warning on Owning Bonds:

    Can you believe that the income recently available from a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond – the yield was 0.93% at yearend – had fallen 94% from the 15.8% yield available in September 1981? In certain large and important countries, such as Germany and Japan, investors earn a negative return on trillions of dollars of sovereign debt. Fixed-income investors worldwide – whether pension funds, insurance companies or retirees – face a bleak future.

    Buffett doesn’t really offer any alternatives, except to warn:

    Some insurers, as well as other bond investors, may try to juice the pathetic returns now available by shifting their purchases to obligations backed by shaky borrowers. Risky loans, however, are not the answer to inadequate interest rates. Three decades ago, the once-mighty savings and loan industry destroyed itself, partly by ignoring that maxim.
    a-bleak-future-for-long-term-government-bonds
    I think Buffett is approaching from insurance company point of view. Normally, the foreseen liabilities of an insurance company (for example to pay annuitized payments) are set aside and invested in bonds that mature on that date. I don't think he is particularly talking about bond funds but I can be wrong.
  • Rbrt said:

    Here’s a good article that looks into this topic: https://humbledollar.com/2020/06/farewell-yield/
    From the article:” That brings me to an idea advanced in 1989 by the late Peter Bernstein. Instead of the classic balanced portfolio with 60% stocks and 40% bonds, perhaps investors should opt for 75% stocks, with the other 25% in cash investments like money market funds and high-yield savings accounts. Bernstein found that the latter investment mix had a similar risk level to the classic balanced portfolio, but higher returns.”

    Except today high yield savings is hardly yielding anything significant either unless the yield is coming from investments of lower grade or banks of having shaky balance sheets. But as long as there is FDIC to back it up, you can keep a portion of cash there.
  • edited June 2021
    FD1000 said:

    “I don't worry about market crashes, I sell, so, bring it on, the faster and deeper is better because the recovery will be much better too”;-)


    Sir, I admire your perseverance.

    image

  • edited June 2021
    Would it be an over simplification to say that you own bond funds if you are afraid that you might panic and sell if there is an equity crash? Is that the primary reason? The market watch article says you own bond funds for safety and not return.

    Ignoring the definition of a bond fund for the moment… as PRWCX (an AA fund with a LOT of equities) and HY (junk) bonds are not the same as an FXNAX. Those that held mostly or a large percentage of bond funds in their portfolio in Feb or March 2020 were probably very happy. How did they feel at the end of 2020 when measuring their bond returns vs equities or the S&P Index?

    I admit I don’t know enough about bonds and that was the purpose of this post. I read with interest FD’s take: “ Many retirees I know who have enough, including me, don't care as much about performance as they care about volatility.”… Here is my ignorant question… Wouldn’t the superior performance or returns from equities vs. bonds over 2-3 years far outweigh the “safety” and less volatility from bonds? Caveat: If one is relying on living only on their portfolio gains or returns and do not wish to touch the principal from their investments… I can clearly see the need for ballast and low volatility. However, if you can weather a “crash”…and recovery as has always been the case- why wouldn’t you just stay invested in equities? The longest collapse in history was 1929 and lasted 2.8 years. The 2007 recession lasted 1.3 years. I suppose I am obsessed with performance but perhaps there will come a day when I’m not and it will be all about preservation. In full disclosure, I own 2 bond funds and some AA. The bond funds are PONAX and FXNAX but are a very small portion of port.

    Note: Coincidently, I wrote this before seeing FD’s post on selling when market crashes and @hank funny response. Thanks @Crash - yes I meant PRWCX -corrected
  • edited June 2021
    Does anyone buy I bonds with a max amount of$10k per person plus tax refunds can be added. Interesting article in Weekend WSJ.
    Just in case you didn't read Davids' commentary :
    Here’s how you can make more than 170X, raising your return 177-fold in a single trade. Move your cash from a bank account, where it’s probably earning about 0.02%, into an inflation-protected U.S. savings bond, which will yield 3.54% annualized. Unlike daredevil stock or crypto trading, buying an “I bond” is almost risk-free and delivers significant tax advantages. (The Safe, High-Return Trade Hiding in Plain Sight,” Wall Street Journal, 5/28.2021).
  • edited June 2021
    @JonGaltIII You make sense. I'm not looking to "shoot the moon" with my bonds. I think you've got a typo, above. You meant PRWCX, yes? Seems to me that using a HY bank account which is FDIC insured would be a place to put money AFTER every other conceivable base is covered. My bond funds are not making me MUCH money, but the monthly dividends are surely WAY BETTER than the interest paid on ANY bank account that I can think of or imagine. If someone just wants to lock-in ULTIMATE safety, then ok, the bank or credit union would be the best choice.

    In Canada, I've had credit union accounts, and it's a better thing for depositors. I recall getting year-end bonuses from the institutions, providing they made money that year. And they always did. I've seen that NOWHERE, in the States.
  • You're talking about bonus dividends, which are paid by customer-owned institutions.
    Why don’t credit unions keep things simple with just “checking” and “savings”? It’s because the “share” in question is your financial share in the organization. At a credit union you aren’t just a customer: you’re a member with a financial stake in the union.
    https://www.penfed.org/learn/share-account-instead
    Based on the success of our credit union, the board of directors, at its discretion, may declare a bonus dividend to all members. The board will be responsible for establishing the terms, conditions and dividend rates on share accounts. Payments are based on the member’s principal balance.
    https://www.aodfcu.com/bonus-dividends/

    Technically, these bonus dividends are authorized by 12 U.S. Code § 1763

    It's not just credit unions that pay bonus dividends to its customers (shareholders). It's mutual insurance companies.
    Just as a public company is owned by its stockholders, mutual insurance companies are owned by policyholders. Mutual insurers generally try to match the rates they charge to the amount they expect to pay out, plus expenses. But when they do better than expected, they may pay dividends.
    https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/car-insurance-savings-dividends

    Then there's the well known(?) example of TIAA Traditional.
    The TIAA Traditional Annuity’s primary goal is to protect an investor’s principal while proving the highest rate of return possible. This return comes in the form of a guaranteed return (1% to 3%) with the addition of a dividend (or additional return) at the discretion of the TIAA Board of Trustees.
    https://www.brightscope.com/financial-planning/advice/article/6208/Tiaa-Cref-I-Cant-Get-My-Money-Out/
  • Thanks, @msf. I've just NEVER seen such a bonus dividend paid on any account I've had in the USA. My bank and credit union accounts simply pay the promised interest. No insurance company, including a "Mutual" one has ever offered me such a thing.
  • What can I say? You need to find better mutual insurance companies:-)
    Due to better than anticipated claim results, State Farm is returning $400 million to California mutual auto insurance customers.
    State Farm announcement, March 10, 2021.
    The boards of Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company, Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company and Ohio National and have announced 2021 dividend payout estimates.

    The announcements mainly affect holders of the companies’ participating whole life policies.

    A mutual life insurer is a life insurance company that’s owned by some or all of its policyholders. A mutual may use dividends to pay part of its profits to the policyholder owners.
    MassMutual, Northwestern Mutual and Ohio National Set 2021 Dividends

    For Ohio National, that may be the last dividend payment.
    Sponsored demutualization of Ohio National Mutual Holdings, Inc. initiated with Constellation, an insurance holding company backed by Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board
    https://www.ohionational.com/sites/public/default/ABOUT/DOING-GREAT-THINGS/Newsroom/News-releases/2021/Ohio-National-Announces-Strategic-Transaction-with-Constellation
  • Mass. Mutual. HQ in Springfield, my hometown. No way I'd go near them. ;)
  • edited June 2021

    Would it be an over simplification to say that you own bond funds if you are afraid that you might panic and sell if there is an equity crash? Is that the primary reason? The market watch article says you own bond funds for safety and not return.

    Ignoring the definition of a bond fund for the moment… as PRWCX (an AA fund with a LOT of equities) and HY (junk) bonds are not the same as an FXNAX. Those that held mostly or a large percentage of bond funds in their portfolio in Feb or March 2020 were probably very happy. How did they feel at the end of 2020 when measuring their bond returns vs equities or the S&P Index?

    My investment style broke several myths because I don't follow simple rules and indexes.
    Myth1: own bonds for ballast, it's about 10 years now that I own bond funds for performance too, starting with PIMIX in 2011.
    Myth2: there is no free lunch. I had a free lunch for over 20 years. Anytime a portfolio Sharpe is higher than the index, it's usually free lunch. PRWCX performance since 2000 shows that it made more money than the SP500 with lower volatility. PIMIX in its glory days (2011-2017) made more money with lower SD than many allocation funds 30-40% in stocks.
    Myth3: Momentum and trading don't work. It worked for me.
  • Another couple of (encouraging) numbers I've failed to mention, so far:
    for the total duration of my investment in these two funds to date, I'm getting a profit that looks like this. Just checked:

    RPSIX: 6.23%
    PRSNX: 4.98%. That's close enough to 5% to make me rather happy.

    Why own bond funds? For ballast AND a bit of up-side. :)
  • edited June 2021
    I am retired and at that stage of life where I have accumulated enough in my investments to live very comfortably. During the time I was accumulating investment principal, I was paying down expenses--have paid off my home, have paid off my cars, comfortably handle health issues with Medicare Advantage plans, etc. I don't have a need, or desire, to do much more than preserve principal and earn sufficient Total Return each year to recoup the amount of RMD paid, plus earn a little additional to grow my IRAs.

    I find bond oefs as relatively low stress avenues to earn about 4 to 6% per year. I have various categories of bond oefs that work for me--some I hold for relatively longer periods of time of over a year, and others that I trade in and out of several times a year when I can recognize performance trends that make some categories, and funds in those categories, very attractive as short term, momentum based trades. Currently, I own a mix of various types of bond oefs--several nontraditional bond oefs, some Floating Rate/Bank Loan funds, some HY Muni funds, an aggressive short term bond fund, a low risk HY corporate bond fund. I do not own much in what many investors would consider safe funds--such as investment grade corporates, treasuries, etc.

    I am very comfortable, and feel I am achieving my investment goals, with minimum stress, using bond oefs. I have no need or desire to invest anywhere else.
  • hank: "I hope that better quality, longer duration bonds continue to suck air. Because if they begin to perform well in a meaningful way it means that other, riskier, markets (including junk bonds) are in a heap of trouble."

    Depends on what kind of investor you are. Equity oriented investors, tend to only think of bonds as "ballast" instruments, focusing on treasuries and investment grade options. Bond oriented investors, are aware that there are a wide variety of bond oefs, that perform differently in different environments. Funds like PIMIX and DBLTX were birthed in the ashes of the 2008 crash, purchased nonagency mortgages that were out of favor, and over the following decade of equity bull market performance, those junky bond oefs became hugely popular, replacing CDs for income flow, and making great total return, without the volatility of equities.

    I am not a great trader, but I have found that bond oefs move slowly enough that I can establish sell points for bond oefs, and easily switch to other bond oefs, in other categories, and still make a nice, lower stress, total return result. I did that in March 2020, when I sold my junkier bond oefs (with a small loss after hitting my sell point criteria), replaced them with some safe harbor bond oefs like GIBLX and BIMIX, and then when those junky bond oefs were once again performing well, I was able to switch back into funds like DHEAX and SEMMX, and make a nice total return. I am beyond my youthful days of heavy equity oriented investing, but have found my bond oef stage in retirement, provides a very nice total return result, allowing me to preserve what I have accumulated, and still grow the principal each year, even with the required RMD harvesting.

    I am 73 years old, in retirement, with no company pensions to provide me a safety net. My preservation of principal objectives, with modest total return, fits my current investing objectives and needs. I am quite content making 4% to 6% annual total return, with minimal volatility and stress, using bond oefs.



  • edited June 2021
    Thanks for the thoughts @dtconroe

    You are correct that I currently tend to view bonds as ballast. Years ago I sold all my PRHYX after Price did a soft close (their 2nd in recent years). I assumed that (1) They knew something I didn’t about valuations and (2) Even if I sold 100%, the fund would reopen again eventually. Not sure about the first - but the second did not occur.

    That probably had a lot to do with my current lack of interest in bonds for generating return. Like the poem - “Two roads diverged in a wood”.

    Your thinking is spot-on about retirement investing. Hope your plan / methods work out for you.
  • edited June 2021

    ”The longest collapse in history was 1929 and lasted 2.8 years. The 2007 recession lasted 1.3 years.”

    Dow Jones Average 1925-1955

    image

    2006-2012 S&P image

    Trying hard not to interpret these charts. Others may draw their own conclusions. But (since this is a bond related thread) I did check the yield of the 10-year Treasury near the beginning of the ‘07-‘09 crash. On January 1, 2008, the 10-year Treasury yielded 3.74% (more than double today’s rate).
  • dt, thanks for your detailed post.

    Mona
  • edited June 2021
    Good posts, @dtconroe. That's my investing style too. Loving the hy munis right now, and the Semper (and others') bounceback has been great. All the best -- Former M* McMontana.
  • You were close @hank, -37.4 % ! Thanks dt, always nice to see post.
    Derf
  • edited June 2021
    Derf said:

    You were close @hank, -37.4 % !
    Derf

    Thanks @Derf. Unfortunately, I’d edited down the post for brevity before seeing your remark. But yes - I had speculated earlier that PRWCX had probably fallen more than 30% peak to trough during the ‘07–‘09 market debacle.

    One wonders how many of the recent converts to Giroux (who wasn’t around in 2008) would stand pat with a drawdown of that magnitude? It’s a much different fund today. No longer a “sleepy” overly cautious fund for older and less aggressive investors willing to settle for “half a loaf”. The extent of recent money inflows (potential outflows) on bear market performance is yet to be seen.

  • AndyJ:"Good posts, @dtconroe. That's my investing style too. Loving the hy munis right now, and the Semper (and others') bounceback has been great. All the best -- Former M* McMontana."

    AndyJ/McMontana, So glad to know you are still posting. I rarely ever post at M* any longer, and lost track of you over the last year or so. I post at MFO and Armchairinvesting, but not as frequently as when I was at M*. Hope you are doing well!

  • edited June 2021
    @hank et al

    PRWCX 2007, 2008, 2009 graph

    Hovering the mouse pointer on any line section of the graph will display NAV price and percentage change relative to the start date of the chart.
  • edited June 2021
    hank said:

    Derf said:

    You were close @hank, -37.4 % !
    Derf

    Thanks @Derf. Unfortunately, I’d edited down the post for brevity before seeing your remark. But yes - I had speculated earlier that PRWCX had probably fallen more than 30% peak to trough during the ‘07–‘09 market debacle.

    One wonders how many of the recent converts to Giroux (who wasn’t around in 2008) would stand pat with a drawdown of that magnitude? It’s a much different fund today. No longer a “sleepy” overly cautious fund for older and less aggressive investors willing to settle for “half a loaf”. The extent of recent money inflows (potential outflows) on bear market performance is yet to be seen.

    PRWCX was a very conservative balanced fund years ago, before Giroux assumed the role of fund manager for it. It then turned into a much riskier, tactical allocation fund, that was much more volatile, only using bonds, when they were better ballast options than treasuries and cash. Giroux has produced stellar total return, but it does not fit very well into a "bond" thread--I consider it a "value" oriented equity fund, that builds up cash and safer nonequity assets, when equities are overvalued. Giroux and TRowe were very smart in restricting access, so this value oriented equity strategy can carry out its portfolio objectives.
  • AndyJ said:

    Good posts, @dtconroe. That's my investing style too. Loving the hy munis right now, and the Semper (and others') bounceback has been great. All the best -- Former M* McMontana.

    McMontana/AndyJ, like dt, I always enjoyed reading your posts on M*. I do not post on Armchairinvesting but read certain posters (dt for example). Are you posting there under a different name?

    Mona
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