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Gold down / Settles below the key $1,800 mark in 2nd day of losses

edited February 2021 in Other Investing
Actually, despite today’s date, the article appears to be addressing yesterday’s close. Gold is erratic. I doubt it will do very well as long as the bitcoin craze continues. Normally the miners get jerked around harder than the metal. But, today the miners are holding up better. At this time the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF is ahead 1% while gold’s been down anywhere from $5-$15 most of the day.


Miners ETF

I have very little in the miners. Decent exposure to the precious metals, however, through PRPFX and commodity and alternative type funds. PRPFX tends to own the metal rather than the miners. As such, it’s a bit more stable day to day. At around $1800 gold is still elevated compared to 2-3 years ago (but off its recent highs).


  • edited March 2021
    Gold has been treading downward since It peaked over $2,000 an ounce in August last year. Probably still worthwhile to hold small % now that recovery is in sight.
  • edited February 2021
    Here’s an interesting comparison - the price of gold vs the value of Nasdaq 100
  • edited March 2021
    Linking some analysis from today. (Published before the price turned and headed south again.)


    Hard to figure out. It’s a rocky investment most of the time and hasn’t done as well as equities over the years. Still, some find it appealing as a small holding in a diversified portfolio. Others have an almost spiritual fascination with it and have loaded up mightily.

    - Rising interest rates tend to spook metals markets.

    - Perceptions the Fed will keep rates very low tend to support metals markets.

    - The bitcoin craze has, as others noted, impacted the metals markets for the worse.

    It should be noted that metals & miners did very well during 2019-20. Some mining funds sported one year gains of around 50%. To some extent, dues are being paid today for that immense run-up.

    LINK to miners ETF (shows current price)
  • Warren Buffet often said gold holds little value in his portfolio. Yet he owned some gold miner last year and quickly sold it. Any idea why?
  • edited March 2021
    Here’s a link to a good (interactive) chart of gold prices for those so interested. Note the dip last March 20 which aligned with the stock market mini-crash and severe liquidity issues in short term investment grade paper.

    FWIW - Nothing makes sense to me with the precious metals, including gold’s seeming correlation with those other markets. A puzzle.

    March 4 Update - Gold smashed through the $1700 level today. Currently around $1690. However, the miners are unchanged for the day as of 2:45 PM.
  • edited March 2021
    Technical analysis for gold futures - Can the bears be stopped?

    Technical analysis for gold futures - Can the bears be stopped?

    **The daily gold chart is showing that the price is in a strong downtrend at the moment. All hope is not lost for gold bugs as there are some decent support levels close by. The red support level at $1676.60/oz was an important level in the past. It was here that in March 2020 the price hit some strong resistance and when it did finally break it was used as a support level before a subsequent move higher.**

    Gold looks attractive again, resistant level maybe at < 1680 but who know may drop to < 1500 since we have bitcoin.
  • I see little value of holding gold in this environment. Perhaps gold miners maybe use for trading purpose. I share the opinion with Warren Buffet on gold.
  • Sven said:

    I see little value of holding gold in this environment. Perhaps gold miners maybe use for trading purpose. I share the opinion with Warren Buffet on gold.

    It can be the most wonderful - and also most awful - holding among one’s investments. I’ve slowly bought down in recent months in my one mining fund (OPGSX). It now amounts to 2.5% of total investments, dwarfed by most everything else. Yet, on a daily basis it is often the biggest determiner of how the day went. IMHO - it’s about as close to gambling as one can get with their investments. I could never recommend it to anyone - though in physical form I think some of the bullion coins lovely (keeping in mind that beauty is in the eyes of the beholder).

    Been looking at site with a lot of gold bugs. Many went “all in” a year ago. Some weeping in their brew today.

  • @hank, I never quite understand gold as an investment so I limited our holding to a small %. We sold our entire position in fall last year as gold price peaked in late August. BTW, PRPFX is doing a great job this year even though it holds a sizable % in gold bullion. If I am interested in gold again, I will use PRPFX instead.

    Gold and gold miner stocks worked last year during the risk-on situation as economy was going into a recession. Right now it is a risk-off situation as COVID vaccines (3 have been approved by FDA) are being delivered to the US population. So we can see the light at the end of the tunnel as eluded by Dr. Fauci.

    This is a strange year and everything turned outside down comparing to last year.
  • The PM at PVCMX, Palm Valley Capital wrote a recent commentary on his investment blog. He be liking the miners...states yes, they are volatile and maybe Energy stonks getting ahead of themselves.

    FWIW, Best,

    Baseball Fan
  • edited March 2021
    Thanks @Sven and @Baseball_Fan for the comments.
    Sven said:

    ” I never quite understand gold as an investment ... “

    @Sven - I doubt very many, including myself, understand how it behaves. It’s always had kind of a “doomsday” following (the end of civilization crowd). I think the wild swings are associated with very large holders “playing” the market. Likely these guys (hedge funds, etc.) are making money whether the price rises or falls. They’re loaded with algorithms and smart traders able to predict what we Tom Dick and Harry are likely to do - in the same way professional gamblers know how to game the system and take advantage of the unsophisticated. (Remember we’re talking about a relatively narrow market.)

    Personally, I’ve had a mild fascination with the metals since the 80’s when gold shot up from around $100 to $800 in a few years. That was a period of double-digit inflation which I’ve never forgotten. 14% mortgages on new homes were common. The items in your shopping cart sometimes increased in price before you got to the checkout. Of course, it’s said that investors often fight “the last war.”

    The best arguments I hear are that the central banks are debasing the currencies and eventually will get caught between “a rock and a hard place” - unable to support the equity and bond markets any longer. Gold may benefit. So might baseball cards, rare art and antique autos. Most of my holdings are pretty mundane. So, a small weighting to a mining fund does add some “sparkle.” Nothing wrong with gambling a bit with a small part of your holdings IMHO - and while doing so you might learn something that helps you longer term.

    @Sven - I’m surprised at the recent success of PRPFX. Hard to explain. Of course this one tends to swing up and down, with investors rushing in at the highs and bailing out at the lows. 5-6 years ago you would have had a hard time giving it away on this board. (I’ve long owned the fund).

  • Luckily have very little gld
    Made remarkable returns but thinking selling it
    Prob get more commodities instead
  • I've been holding some gold (IAU) since around Dec. 2018. Had about a 5% holding over most of that time until recently. I've been getting out slow (to slow maybe) the past couple months and putting that money into a broad basket commodity EFT, DBC (@ ~5% now) and putting some cash into an inverse dollar ETF, UDN.
  • Howdy folks,

    Nice discussion and Hank is spot on. The gold and silver markets are weird due to their very nature, particularly gold. For centuries it was basis for all currencies and while no longer legally so, it still impacts the actions of central banks and government treasuries.
    Physical bullion is traded in the commodity market while the miners are traded in the stock market. Is there some great conspiracy to depress the POG? I don't believe so. Never have. It's simply that if anyone has the power to legally move the market to their advantage - duh, they will. Human nature. Hank mentioned the bookies. Same thing.

    The demand equation is even more bizarre. Different between gold and silver but extremely diverse. Store of value, medium of exchange, survivalists, coin collectors, industrial, ad nauseum. Right now, there is a shift from gold to bitcoin for some of the store of value folks. That's fine and expected. There is also some of the EOTWAWKI crowd vis-a-vis the election and pandemic, selling some of their emergency hoard. That said, 2020 was a good year with gold up 25% and silver 48%.

    I'm still of the opinion that everyone should have between 3-7% of their wealth in the precious metals, preferably physical bullion in some form. More than this is speculation, which fine, but dicey due to the nature of the market. I have never attempted to time it or short term play it. I don't know enough. That said, I LOVE to momentum invest in it when the momentum exists - with my casino money.

    I have always preferred silver to gold, originally due to affordability and later due to experience. I worked restaurants in the mid-70's and bought all the 90% silver out of the till at face value. Then I went back to school to finish my degree in econ and paid for it with GI Bill and the proceeds of selling my silver stash into the Hunt Bros attempt to corner the market. OoohRah!

    What I noticed was the gold went up 3x while silver went up 10x and the spectacular gains were made in the junior mining stocks. This is how I played the Big Bonanza from 2002 to 2011, Heavy silver and heavier silver miners. The junior penny stock that have 5 digit ticker symbols. Nose bleed rascals that can easily move 10% up or down in a day.

    and so it goes,

    peace and wear the damn mask,


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