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the 200 year history of US interest rates

David_Snowball
in Other Investing
image

One description: interest rates declined steadily for 150 years as the US economy matured and we weren't universally seen as an issuer of junk bonds, soared for 40 years during the "rise to global hegemony" phase and have now fallen for 40 years.

It's never safe to read too much into history, but an appreciation of how long "the long-term" can last might provide a useful frame for other discussions.

Just pondering, David

Comments

  • CharlesCharles
    Sweet. Long-term? These days, that's about two weeks.
  • davfordavfor
    Interesting. Except for that jump to the 1981 peak there has been a fairly persistent long term down trend since 1798. But, we are close to a floor now unless the Fed changes its mind about negative rates. Maybe we do just bump along zero for a while unless excessive deficit spending juices things up.
  • Ben
    Wow. OK I won't read too much into it but I sure won't ignore it.
  • expatsp
    Looks to me like a sign that deficits are too low.
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