Howdy folks,
Well, hell is here to stay for a while so we might as well deal with it. By this point, I can't imagine that everyone has a least some cash on hand and is itching to get into the game. I am NOT buying but making a list of things to watch and perhaps nibble on if they go on sale. For those more adventurous, you can DCA. feh.
So, in all fairness, we're looking at a virtual economy for several years. Perhaps not until well into 2024. Many of the traditional face to face interactions of life are never coming back. All these attempts at reopening and face to face anything are one by one exploding. Oh, and the flu season is approaching and it's getting colder so folks are headed indoors. Really.
So. The shut down darlings are going to continue to be the winners. Amazon, Google, Netflix, Zoom. Rural real estate. Lumber and building supplies. Survival basic materials.
Same with the losers. The existing losers are going to continue to lose. Airlines, cruise lines, casinos, resorts, hotels, tourism, travel, shopping malls, urban office space, etc.
What else? What am I missing? What if everything shuts down this coming winter? If things really get bad? Geez, even in 1919 it was worse than 1918 and we're repeating history . . . or denying it. Regardless, winter looks rather bleak.
We did send in our passports to be renewed. Gaslight city!!!
and so it goes,
peace and wear the damn mask,
rono
Comments
Edit: and I forgot AU + the miners
I am thinking of adding SNOW - new snowflake IPO debut today. could be next 'tesla or amazon google'. Buffet has bought bunch private preferred shares few days ago.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/snow
Cannabis ETF’s might perform better if cannabis were legal on a federal level but that doesn’t seem to be on the horizon just yet. I’ll continue to watch the cannabis space but I don’t see much of an investment opportunity in cannabis anytime soon.
Derf
My equity shopping list includes: PING, RPRX, ABBV, CIBR, NSRGY, UTF, BMY, MPW, and a few others.
My fund shopping list includes more PRBLX & PRWCX, possibly starter pos in TRBCX or BST, and Global Wellington.
I'm hoping to put most of my idle cash to work significantly heading into the new year, but I'm buying opportunistically and not on any fixed timeframe.
I generally agree that this will go on a long time but I think there will be far better prices in the next few months. The market is priced for perfection and assumes 1) the Fed will keep pumping money in 2) there will be a perfectly effective vaccine by late fall and everyone will take it 3) things will return to normal next spring, and SP500 earnings with it 3) There will be a split Congress and the election results will be available soon after the election 4) no inflation
Some of these are mutually exclusive or at least contrary to each other.
When there is another 10 to 15% dip you will need to know if that is just the first shot of a long war. a lot of things may get much cheaper
I think we are at least a year away from solving Covid and maybe longer. Look a the inability of most people to accept minor restrictions. A vaccine that is almost 100% effective is the only thing that will solve that. It will be difficult to determine that without vaccination millions and seeing who gets infected.
If Trump really refuses to concede or if the Democrats win everything things will really tank.
Remain a bit underweight on cash. What I look for for short term speculation are funds that appear well managed and invested in things that are badly beaten down and appear to have good upside potential. My math isn’t so great. But I’d think if you dumped $$ Into an equity fund that’s off 50% or more over the past year and it bounced to “only“ being down 25% in short order, you’d have pocketed a quick 25% gain - even though the fund is still underwater. I’m always on the lookout for such opportunities. Sparse pickings at present.
I’m not seeing “dark shadows on the ceiling”, but do feel somewhat mesmerized by all that’s happening both politically and on the monetary end (Fed policy). Hard to get a solid bearing. But even without all that extraneous stuff going on, election years tend to favor equities. A motto of sort: “When in doubt, do nothing.“ So currently just a lot of sitting and looking. Where might someone go hunting if eager to buy? A lot of the foreign developed markets and EM have lagged the U.S. over the past decade.
@MikeM might want to dust off that “deer in the headlights“ shot again.
>> if the Democrats win everything things will really tank.
Can you elaborate on this a bit, please? I am interested in your thinking.
@rforno- Congratulations! You are the winner of this week's Alternative Fact® award! (Prize to be announced.)
Joe Biden releases medical assessment, described as 'healthy, vigorous'