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If we want any vaccine to actually work, we have to prepare for it now

edited July 2020 in Off-Topic
This opinion piece discusses some of the challenges related to getting a vaccine widely and promptly distributed through the population. It assumes the goal will be to have "normal" behaviors by individuals revert to what they were before the onset of the pandemic. But, the discussion suggests planning for a "new post-vaccine normal" may be a more realistic goal. Some of the behavioral changes that have occurred since the onset of the pandemic -- increased on-line shopping and teaching for example -- are likely to be long lasting anyway and will lessen the difficulty of achieving a generally acceptable new normal with less than universal immunization of the population. Elderly and other vulnerable segments of the population may need to continue to restrict their activities the most in the post-pandemic world.
To defeat covid-19, we may well have to have to vaccinate everyone, or as close to everyone as we can. That kind of vaccination campaign — the kind that could really make everything go back to normal — is going to take a vast, coordinated public effort on a scale that we may not have seen since the United States rolled out draft cards and ration books during World War II.

We need to be building the capacity right now, even if that means that we staff up agencies and buildings that sit idle for a year as we wait for the right vaccine candidate.

...But the logistical problems seem almost trivial compared to the political problems. The covid-19 response has become almost hopelessly politicized...if we want this country to get back to normal any time soon, we’ll need to do more than imagine it.


  • Interesting article in NYT today. It suggests a low rate of vaccination is probable in the US. That outcome coupled with possible (probable?) less than initial high effectiveness suggest our post pandemic world may be one in which we continue to live with the virus to some extent. Anyway.....
    A growing number of polls find so many people saying they would not get a coronavirus vaccine that its potential to shut down the pandemic could be in jeopardy. Distrust of it is particularly pronounced in African-American communities, which have been disproportionately devastated by the virus. But even many staunch supporters of immunization say they are wary of this vaccine.

  • Howdy folks,

    And, yes, folks, just what percentage of the population is going to get the shot(s)?

    Let's see, the people who don't believe in masks are out. Hell, they won't even vax their kids for smallpox.

    Now let's count out that percentage of the educated people who don't trust the FDa and Trump admin about their vax - which sure as hell will be released this October before the election.

    Hell, I believe in science and believe vaccination should be required by law.

    And I won't even consider getting vaccinated until perhaps 2022. I want to see the results. Oh, that's right. The federal government is controlling the statistics. That gives me comfort.

    Are you kidding me. Anyone that believes anything out of Washington should just kill yourself just after you sterilize your kids. The federal government is dead.

    Oh and on a related note, I felt very bad and overly negative when they were estimating 120 - 200K dead by the end of the year and I said it looked more like 500K. Obviously I was high that day because the new estimate is 800K dead by year end. Knowing Trump he'll probably shoot for 1,000,000 dead by Jan 1, 2021 because he likes big numbers.

    And dear God people, if you have any friends or relatives in Fla, TX, AZ in particular and any other state with a republican governor, try to get them out safely soonest. First hurricane hits and it's going to be dead bodies in the streets.

    And so it goes



  • edited July 2020
    @rono - No, the way I've got it figured is he heard he lost the popular vote by 3M and he also heard this virus is particularly partial to "libruls", especially wrong color ones. So I think he wants to get as many cases as possible so that 3M die before November. (We won't count cases or deaths, of course, in case some millennial communist decides to do a master's thesis on where the 3M popular votes went.)
  • Hi Anna,

    Hope this finds you well and safe. You're spot on although some are a bit more blatant about it like Kemp in Georgia. Let's see. Cities are democratic and lots of minorities while suburbs are mostly republican and white. Let's prohibit masks in the cities where they need them. Question? What is the crime when you intentionally and with planning kill 100's or even 1000's of people? Oh, and it's the governor who took an oath to protect the health, safety and welfare of his people. If I was on the jury, I would vote to convict of 1st degree premediated genocide. But I'm just a soon to be 3rd term elected republican so WTF do I know.


    you take care and stay safe,

  • I will be first in line for the vaccines when it is available. Saw two test participants on CNN who took different dosages of Modera's vaccine. The one who had the highest dosage experienced a high temp for 24 hours then he was fine. The one who took the normal dosage did not had any side effect. The third round of clinical trial is starting in late July. I would volunteer for this trial if I would get selected. This vaccine development is moving at a fast pace. There are over two dozens candidates. It is pretty amazing that in the past it would take like 10 years to develop a vaccine.

  • At present we don't know how much it will cost. If insurance doesn't cover price, then I will wait.
  • Pricing has not be determined yet and this vaccine is not considered experimental, thus the insurance companies should cover the entire cost. If it is taken at the pharmacy instead in doctor's office, there is no co-pay to the doctor. The bigger question is will there be enough dosages for the general population.

    Another note, Pfizer and BioNTech had good results today from their Phase II vaccine trial. Similarly, AstraZeneca and Oxford University also making great progress.
  • It looks like the Senate Republicans will have creation of a "new normal" on their minds in their upcoming negotiations regarding the next coronavirus stimulus bill...
    As for liability protections, McConnell said he was focused on “creating a safe harbor” for firms, universities and small businesses “if we want any genuine reopening at all.”

    “We need to carve out a new normal,” McConnell said. “We can’t go back to April.”
  • A little more about a possible new normal. The House of Commons in the U.K. is being provided some probably unwelcome advice about how long the coronavirus will probably be with us:
    ....the coronavirus (is) set to be around for “decades” to come, Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies member and director of the Wellcome Trust Jeremy Farrar told MPs on Tuesday.....humanity will still be living with the virus for many, many years to come.

    John Bell, Oxford University’s regius professor of medicine, went further, saying that the “reality is that this virus will be with us forever.” “It is going to come and go,” he said.
  • Dr. Fauci and other health department officials weigh in about the new normal.....
    White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said it is unlikely Covid-19 will ever be eradicated.

    Fauci said the virus is unlike SARS, a coronavirus that emerged in the early 2000s and was contained.

    Fauci’s comments are at odds with President Trump, who reiterated his claim Tuesday evening that the virus would disappear.

    U.S. health officials do not see “an end in sight” to the pandemic.

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