VWINX most recently experienced a (-18.5 %) draw down (from its recent high on 2/21/2020) and a DD recovery of a little less than 4 months time (Feb - June). I spent some time today reviewing and comparing VWINX to other funds I own.
On a YTD basis many of my funds have returned to positive territory.
Allocation funds that I own that are positive YTD - PRWCX, VGSTX, VWINX - each roughly 2% positive
Allocation fund that is still negative - BRUFX - down 2%
Some other fund in the red YTD:
FRIFX - down 11% (riskier than I imagined)
THOPX - down 7.3% (Poor performance for what I consider a cash like fund)
FMIJX - down 16.8% (has had some recent big up days) - Toe hold
VMVFX - down 10.4% (this has been a surprise to me...very volatile recently)
POAGX - down 0.5% (Always surprises)
VHCOX - down 3.2%
VWO / VEIEX - down 9.3% - Toe Hold
Some funds in the black YTD:
VGHCX - up 3.9%
PRHSX - up 5.6%
FSRPX - up 11.4% (retail choices in this fund are far from dead)
FSMEX - up 2.6% (medical device companies have been good past performers)
PRMTX - up 19.95% (its recent DD was similar to VWINX, but its 100% Media and Tech)
PRGSX - up 8.6% (showing strong momentum from the bottom)
PRNHX - up 16.9% (wish...need to own more)
PRIDX - up 1.8% - Toe Hold
Cash like Funds YTD:
VFISX - up 3.3%
PRWBX - up 2.5%
PTIAX - up 0.1%
I try to identify and understand the downside risk (beta) in my holdings and getting more practice than I wish for. It is probably a more important dynamic than upside potential (alpha). Downside risk either bruises, cuts, or maims your portfolio. I'm trying to minimize the cutting and the maiming.
Anything surprising you in your portfolio?
Good idea bee. Sometimes it’s easier to get one’s head around a dozen or so various funds than try to take in the whole universe. Prior to today, I’d have answered your question in the affirmative - a few pleasant surprises.
But with the DJI currently off 1,000 and oil down 7-8% at last look I’ll withhold judgment. Gold was also off. Few hedges working. Looks like the shorts are having a field day “shooting them in the back on the way down” to paraphrase one short-seller I’m acquainted with. What’s interesting is that yesterday Powell basically unlocked the door of the vault, left it open, and walked away.
Thanks for the insightful post.
@bee, thank you for sharing your list. I have many disappointment this year. Few brighter spots:
plus the same balanced funds you have as well.
BRBPX, GAVAX, NCLIX, NLSAX (okay so I don't own RLSFX), HSTRX, FVALX, PRWCX, are doing what they are supposed to do.
IVWAX and CETAX I had hoped would be doing better.
PGIRX and PROVX I am happy I own.
M* reports 31 distinct hedged world bond funds. (Remember that "world" includes both foreign and global.) Among others, these include FGBFX, HFATX, PGBIX, PFORX, VTABX, and of course PRSNX. M* lists 53 unhedged (or partially hedged) world bond funds, including MDWIX, DODLX, LSGLX, MGBAX, GTRAX, PIGLX, PFUIX, TGCFX.
M* similarly splits emerging market bond funds. Ones denominated in local currency include TGWIX, EEIAX, and PELBX. There are 72 dollar denominated EM bond funds including FNMIX, HXIAX (Asian fund, NTF at TDA), MCRDX, TRECX, VEMBX, VGAVX, and your MAINX.
There are always going to be a few funds that don't quite fit into a category. If there are enough of them, they can be grouped together into an "other" category. M* does this for foreign funds. That's where you'll find the only Korean fund (MAKOX) lumped in with two emerging Europe funds (TREMX, EUROX), the only Russian fund (LETRX) in case those emerging emerging Europe funds aren't narrowly focused enough for you, and so on.
Obviously you can't compare these funds with each other. What's the alternative? The emerging Europe funds could be tossed in with diversified emerging markets. That's what Lipper did. It's arguably a little better, but not really. This is the approach M* took with the Asian bond funds. On the other hand Lipper put them into three different categories: International Income (HXIAX), Alternative Credit Focus (MCRDX), and Emerging Market Hard Currency (MAINX).
YTD performance is per M* rather than any picture of my performance.
Neuberger Berman Genesis (NBGNX) has done just fine @ -5.44 YTD . I'm glad I held on when I was selling funds to simplify, and rebalance, back in December-January. Their thesis still made sense to me when push came to shove.
Value Line Mid-Cap (VLIFX) is -4.98. I bought some on march 18th. That has worked out pretty well.
Merk Hard Currency (MERKX) is at -2.7. I'm so far in the red on that one. I doubled down on that and USAGX (a gold fund) after Trump was elected. Maybe it would take off if we had Weimar-style inflation. I hope it never takes off. But I'll probably hold it until the end.
Fidelity Floating Rate (FFRHX) is holding up better than VWELX at only -4.71. I bought it as part of my inflation hedge. Compared to MERKX, I feel like the guy that stopped hitting himself in the head with a rock.
I'm not too happy with the DoubleLine bond funds I bought. Their infrastructure fund (BILDX) is only +.13. And their low duration is off -.86. I'll be looking for opportunities to get out ahead with both.
Fidelity Real Estate Income (FRIFX) has been a party-pooper. It's at -12.69 while TIAA Real Estate (TCREX) is only off -7.90. FRIFX was supposed to be the less volatile real estate option. Considering I bought them after selling Vanguard's realty index (VGSIX), I shouldn't kick too much. It's off 12.48.
Switching out of Vanguard's small cap index for Boston-Walden's small cap ESG (BOSOX) has not worked out yet. It's off -17.72 while the index is only off -13.51.
I still have high hopes for ESG moving forward. Not sure how long I'll have to wait. Parnassus, and Boston-Walden midcaps have been nothing to write home about compared to the mid-caps mentioned above.
TIAA-CREF's ESG bond fund TSBRX has worked out better so far at +3.59
Janus Henderson Small Cap Value has been a lamb led to slaughter. The less said of it, the better.
Speaking of the funds that got away during my rebalance. Nicholas (NICSX) is only off -4.15. But I was worried about the succession issues after going through tribulations with Homestead Small Cap (HSCSX). That started to wobble after Morris and Teach retired. And began to founder after Ashton retired. I got out some time ago.
I dumped Royce Special Equity (RYSEX). There are other funds that watch the balance sheets, and still manage to buy a winning stock every once in a while.
I dumped Mairs and Powers funds when I realized it was silly to own something because I went to college in St. Paul 45 years ago.
My three best performers year to date are CTFAX +13.75% ... AOFAX +9.96% ... and, FISCX +9.38%.
My three worst performers year to date are PMDAX -23.30% ... HWIAX -20.71% ... and, LPEFX -17.79%.
Thank goodness I hold more in my better performers than my laggards.
I have not dumped any funds for down performance thus far this year because the ones that have been down the most thus far year to date are, by in large, my 30 day up leaders. My three best 30 day up leaders are PMDAX +11.43 ... HWIAX +10.88 ... and, NEWFX +10.32.
Stay Safe, Derf
(1) Following the March meltdown, value stocks began to outperform many other sectors. That was a surprise after their decades old underperformance. Doesn't make up for the bad years, but is a refreshing change for value investors.
(2) A second surprise was a brief powerful surge in energy and other cyclicals (including materials) which began shortly after oil briefly fell into negative territory. Oil is nowhere back to its all-time high over $100, but compared to April's (negative) - $37.63 handle, +$37-$38 today is pretty impressive. No idea how you would even compute a % gain like that.
(3) Not so much a surprise as "long overdue", the dollar weakened substantially over the past 2 weeks. That's supposed to be good for EM curriencies - probably is longer term. But downdrafts in equities like this week's can also serve to weaken those currencies.
If you are well diversified among various sectors and added a bit of risk to your plate during the March pummeling, chances are you're not down too far this year - and in some cases positive. Ted used to say, "Investing isn't a sprint, it's a marathon".
(4) @bee's topic is so stimulating ... here's one more surprise. Have followed real estate funds since dumping one a year ago. Than, sector was up something like 35% for 1 year. Generally afraid of heights - so bailed. What's surprising is both the depth to which they fell early this year as well as the sharp rebound since March / April. Considered opening a spec position in TRREX month or two ago when it was off near 30-35% YTD. Waited too long. Confucius say: He who hesitates is lost..
FMIJX - Max. 2020 Drawdown: -28.24%; YTD Performance: -19.10%
VWILX - Max. 2020 Drawdown: -15.52%; YTD Performance: 6.34%
FMI funds have often performed well during past market selloffs.
Great thread! Yep, I'm a big the VWINX fan. It fell but it's back. It's like the good, the bad and the ugly.....lol. Sold 13 funds on the crash.....moved fast to stop losses. The ugly FMIJX....what a loser! I was going to sell it last year, but things were good. So I learned the lesson again....dumbass me. The bad....that would be FSDAX, but I think we're just a vaccine away from a runner. The good tech & growth we all know that. Have bought 5 new funds in June. Looking for the one.....lol......the Dukester says party on!!!!!!!
Reviewing fund performance at mid year is dangerous business. Making a decision based on that review could encourage a losing decision. I don’t see much actionable patterns in the monthly and annual stock market historical returns. These data exhibit far too much data scatter for decision making purposes.
Here is a Link to a general historical annual stock returns summary
historical stock market returns by year chart
And here is a Link to average monthly returns:
If you can extract a pattern from these data sets, you are a better man than I Gunga Din. I fail in this test. To avoid reacting precipitously I check my portfolios far less often then many others. That strategy works for me. For you??????
Whatever works for you, good luck and successful investing to all. Best Wishes.
Hi MJG. Yes, if doing so while standing out on the ledge of a 80-story NYC skyscraper, trying to read charts on your tablet in the bright sun’s glare while slipping off your sandals because your foot itches. Dangerous indeed.
Hope you are well. Always great to hear from you. We’ve enjoyed this discussion before. Seems to me that looking at data and trying to make sense of it - even if it proves irrelevant - is not dangerous. A mind game. Compare it to trying to discern patterns in the stars. Perhaps the intended message is not to make important decisions on the basis of short-term / incomplete data?
(Concerning the “ledge” analogy ... please rest assured everyone here is well-anchored.)
I'm one of those lucky people that can look at my portfolio from the comfort of my chair rather than the ledge.
I agree with WABAC....a very humorous post.....I like it. I was wondering who would bite. I didn't think Skeeter would. I knew I wasn't. That left you and Bee. Even the Dukester thought it was cute.
Unfortunately, I don’t possess WSBAC’s admirable patience attribute.
I see action and often want to participate. I am a slave to the “Don’t just stand there, do something” dictum. However, often inaction is a more preferable choice. A slight change to that sentence is useful when considering a difficult decision. It is:
“Don’t just do something, stand there.”
I don’t know who invented that clever rewording, but it is sound advice. It’s a challenge for me. Taking time to re-evaluate a tough decision does take considerable patience but is often richly rewarded Patience pays handsomely. it allows for more information collection including different opinions.
Once again, Best Wishes
Third grade. “Haste makes waste”. Sister Almira
Seventh grade. “He who hesitates is lost”. Sister Ambrose
Some time in my 20’s. “Well, punk, you gotta ask yourself ‘Do you feel lucky today?’” Dirty Harry