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So are we bottoming?

I realize that no one here has a crystal ball, but since I'm sure we're all asking this question, I'm curious what others here think. Maybe some of you folks who follow charts etc have some educated guesses to share.


  • The irony of true crashes, not corrections, is only when investors stop asking are we bottoming and sell in unison will the answer be yes.
  • @LewisBraham sounds like you feel we've got more to go. there certainly is a lot of negative news that's going to be coming out with COVID and the economy over the next 2 months. that's pretty much guaranteed. Only question is whether that's already been discounted by the market. Unclear to me.
  • Also unclear is the continuing ability of the US to be relatively energy (oil) independent. It looks like the frackers are out of business, at least for quite a while. Since much of the fracking was done with OPM (rather shaky bonds) there's going to be a world of hurt there too.
  • Methinks Goldman Sachs has puts at S&P 500 at 2000. I will wait.
  • edited March 2020
    I'm not sure if it is or isn't a bottom or I would be a very wealthy man, but I do know that bottoms are generally only recognized in hindsight after everyone has capitulated and sold. It is extraordinarily difficult to time a bottom and most who claim they have are either lying or often just lucky. How many knew for sure in March 2009 it was a bottom and went all in into stocks? Some probably tiptoed in, but very few dove headfirst into that pool's bottom lest they crack their heads.
  • "very few dove headfirst into that pool's bottom lest they crack their heads"

    Well done! :)
  • I'm thinking lower than Goldman Sachs but I'd be okay if they're right.
  • Roy
    edited March 2020
    @MikeW I'm with you, hard to believe the market has bottomed yet with all the bad news regarding infection and death numbers still climbing and the poor corporate performances for the next several quarters yet to come out along with horrific unemployment numbers still mounting.

    We didn't sell anything in 2008-09 and haven't sold here with no plans to do so. Maybe, just maybe I've finally lived through enough of these market draw-downs to believe this to shall pass. Fortunately, we still have 8-10 years before we will begin withdrawing for retirement income.
  • Howdy folks,

    Impossible to pick the bottom so why try. feh. If you see something that looks appealingly priced - buy a little. Wait and see what happens. Cripes, if it's a good company that has their act together, you can take a sort of DCA approach and nibble here and there and it should work out fine . . . over time. This takes patience but pays off. Just be prudent.

    I hope we're near the bottom but gee folks the next 2-3 weeks of TV are going to be about as brutal as any of us have ever seen.

    and so it goes,

    peace and flatten the curve,

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