Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

MarketWatch: Wait for These Signals to Buy Coronavirus Battered Stocks

edited February 2020 in Off-Topic
Wait for these signals to buy coronavirus-battered stocks, says BNY Mellon strategist

Our call of the day comes from BNY Mellon’s chief strategist Alicia Levine, who has advice for those wanting to know when to buy beaten-down (and down) stocks. She said they first need a solid view on where this virus is headed. “If you think it is essentially a short-term problem, a hit to growth, but then it is over by the summer, then you’re fine going into the market. But if you think it is worse than that, then you have to play that out,” she told MarketWatch.

More details on the subject article can be read by clicking on the below link. In addition, S&P 500 Revised Forward Earnings are noted in the article and have been recently moved downward from $174.00 to $165.00 for 2020. Old_Skeet's barometer has been programed with the $165.00 earnings number since January 1, 2020.

Old_Skeet did a little buying yesterday in a couple of equity dividend paying mutual funds at S&P 500 Index level 3116.


  • edited February 2020
    Hi sir..thx for Commentary. We maybe little early to party. Maybe volatile for few more wks until cold weather improve and virus stop spreading.
    We also traded for Vde oil etf past few days but still waiting around. Also added another bond enlink midstream partner mature 2046/ytm ~5%. Also added brk.b and vti few days ago/ vanguard lifecycle 2045

    Em etf look very cheap now, who know if they have another 20%drop in 4 -8 weeks

    What funds /vehicles did you add if you dont mind disclosing

  • edited February 2020
    @johnN. In answer to your above question. Since, I hold mostly A share mutual funds some readers think that I'm a plant by some fund companies to promote A share funds. This is not so. I've been an investor since age 12 (1960) and I started with load funds and through the years have built a sizeable portfolio consisting of mostly A share funds. The fund ticker symbols that you seek to know are INUTX and SVAAX. The other two funds that I own that are held in this sleeve are ANCFX and FDSAX. There are many good "oef" equity dividend paying mutual funds out there that investors can choose from. I have linked below an article published in USNews that list seven good equity dividend payers. I'm sure there are others as well beside those listed in the article.
  • @ Old_Skeet; Was this a re-balance within this sleeve ?
  • edited February 2020
    Hi @Derf: In answer to your question. This was not a required threshold rebalance. The yield in these subject funds purchased looked (and still look attractive) as comparied to some fixed income bond yields. My barometer had reached the 158 reading and this is where I had planned to start nibbling. Besides, I am more of an investor than I am a trader ... and, stocks are now looking attractive, to me, so I did a little buying. Probally want buy today ... but, I might again tomorrow. I'll just have to see. After all, I've got ample cash within my portfolio so I'll probally spend a little of it. After all there is not as much risk in the S&P 500 today at a price level of 3050 range as there was at its 52 week closing high (about a week ago) at 3386.

    As of market close yesterday with the S&P 500 Index closing at 3116 (and down about 8% from its high of 3386) I was down by about 2.1%. Think about that for a bit. With this, I've got my buying britches on while equities are on sale. For me, I feel it is a good time to do a little buying within my portfolio. After all when someone sells there has to be a buyer on the other side of the transaction.

    The talking heads and the programed electronic trading machines have many retail investors scared. And, a good number of them will sell and by in large big money will be buying while the little guy can stand no more and sells to cut their losses. The goal is to buy low and sell high. Many retail investors bought when the markets were at or near the top now they are cutting and running.

    Again, I've now started to put my buying britches on. Can stocks go lower? Absoutely! But, they can also go higher as well. For me, my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity has held up well, thus far, during this recent stock market swoon. I am very happy with it only being down 2.1% from its recent high.

    On my buying mythology. Recently, S&P trimmed forward earnings form $175.00 to $165.00. And, should the $165.00 hold times a mutiple of 20 (being plenty) puts a ceiling value at 3,300. Currently, TTM full year earning are projected at $159.00 times a multiple of 20 puts a fair value at 3,180. Now, let's look at this with things going poorly with earnings coming in at a revised $145.00 times a multiple of 20 computes to a valuation of 2,900. Yep ... I've now got my buying britches on as this 2,900 computes to my lower support level for the Index.
  • @ Old_Skeet: Thank you for answering my question & more.
    Looks to me at this time Mr. Market is having another bad day !!

    Time to start nibbling, Derf

  • Same here. I've started nibbling and have a few orders out for stocks that have suddenly dropped into my target buy zones for some new (or enhanced) long-long-term holdings.
  • That MarketWatch article was extraordinarily helpful. Reduced to it's basic message, it amounts to "do whatever you think is right and good luck".
  • The genius has it all covered. No worries.

    Information Suppression ENGAGE
  • If an investor waits until s/he has "a solid view on where this virus is headed" any opportunity will be long gone. As advice that's not even worth two cents.
Sign In or Register to comment.