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Second US case of deadly coronavirus confirmed / Investment repercussions?

edited January 2020 in Off-Topic
It’s curious that both oil prices and airline shares are among the areas leading the market(s) on the downside today. Typically they move in opposite directions - for obvious reasons. Quite possibly, the coronavirus scare is causing problems for the travel industry at large.

Gold’s having a good day (+$10) which might possibly also be related.


  • here is the head of the NIH infectious disease section, Anthony Fauci, review of SARS MERS and now this one

    While not a fatal as SARS, there will be a lot of people infected as there is far more air travel now than in 2002. It is interesting that although it has been almost 20 years since SARS, there is not a vaccine yet, nor much in the way of anti-viral meds.

    Same source as SARS, a Chinese "market" selling wild animals for human consumption. There are more toxic Chinese products than just their bad loans and huge debt .

    I doubt we really know how bad it is in China
  • --- From auto and related industries in Michigan, there is a lot of round trip business travel to China.

    From MFO, Jan. 21 corona virus potentials

    3 Michigan, being monitored

  • So far China reported 41 dead along with over 100 being treated. Serious lock-down in train stations and some airports are taken place in an attempt to contain the spread of coronavirus. This virus appears to be transmitted by physical contact and not airborne. It is Chinese Lunar New Year celebration and traveling can spread the virus throughout the country and rest of the world. As note above, there is already a number of cases detected around the world. We should be thankful that Coronavirus is nowhere nearly as deadly as Ebola virus found in Africa.

    @rforno, don't know if that is a pure coincidence? The former Soviet Union used to have secret biowarfare labs throughout the country.
  • Sven said:

    @rforno, don't know if that is a pure coincidence? The former Soviet Union used to have secret biowarfare labs throughout the country.

    I was being somewhat facetious. And yes, there were similar incidents in/around some of those Soviet sites as well -- but they weren't as well known or covered back then. We're still only in the first inning of this incident anyway, so we'll see.....
  • edited January 2020
    Investment repercussions?

    1. The one item that jumps out in the articles I've read so far is the possible (likely?) disruption of China supply chains. Convincing arguments are being made about that and if/when it happens, that could be a biggie depending on the extent.
    2. For me personally as a retired investor, yet another reason to steer clear of Asia and EMs again this year. EMs were one of the 2020 fave picks of talking heads and parroted by a few posters on various boards.
  • You’d think that after this, the Chinese would put a ban on consumption of bats, snakes, mice, etc etc etc. And who knows how many actual cases there are in Wuhan - there could be many more than what the government is willing to release. Cuomo won’t say where the potential infected are within NY state (hint, it’s Chinatown).

    out of ARTYX on Friday - lots of reasons, but this made it easier.
  • There were sizable economic impact due to the outbreak of SARS in 2003. Quote from the article below:
    It was estimated that Asian states lost USD 12–18 billion as the SARS crisis depressed travel, tourism, and retail sales [13]. SARS had a large impact on tourism and its related industries, and due to the spread of SARS, population movement in China and many counties decreased.
    The global impact should be far higher than figure quoted above.

    Let's hope the Center of Disease Control has learned from previous virus outbreaks and have taken quick measures to contain and treat those who are infected.
  • @sma3,
    Same source as SARS, a Chinese "market" selling wild animals for human consumption. There are more toxic Chinese products than just their bad loans and huge debt .
    Just shocking to see pictures of wild animials for consumption ! Thought bush meat market in Africa was outrageous.
  • Investment repercussions - to answer the original question.

    As I stated last week the market was due for a correction and that it would be fast and furious. Obviously, I had no idea of the Coronavirus, but it is irrelevant. The market was due a 5-10% correction anyway.

    Buy on weakness is my policy. Growth funds for the coming decade.

    Coronavirus will prove to be like Ebola. History within a few months.
  • I am heeding that advice @johnN. I've been waiting for another entry point for BABA (Alibaba) and it may just get there. I put in 2 limit orders to buy if it continues to drop.
  • Does anyone know if BABA would be affected by Trump's threat t prevent Chinese firms from listing on US exchanges if they dont follow SEC policies ? I suspect not as I have been told BABA is not really a listing of the equity but a derivative that gives you, the shareholder no rights, and could be removed at anytime.
  • edited January 2020
    Don't know the answer to that @sma3, but if BABA is a problem to own, that will likely affect every Asian centric fund massively and most EM funds quite a bit. It is a high percentage holding in most of those portfolios, the Amazon of Asia. But who knows what logic sits under that orange toupee:)
  • @rforno- re Wuhan... Oh my... this could get interesting.
  • I dont think we have seen the full implications of this. Ex head of CDC on Bloomberg TV stating it is more contagious than SARS, while less fatal. This will mean faster spread (esp with greater Chinese air and train travel than in 2002 and during Lunar New Year) and thus more disruption to Chinese economy and likely supply chains to the world economy.

    Comparison of SARS and Coronavirus.

    Some of this is better reporting etc, but do you really trust the Chinese governement to tell the truth?
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