Hi guys,
Going to ponder mostly. Most things are at 52-week highs. In my IRA, I guess that's good. I bought several funds last month and have coverage. The energy sector seems to be very volatile. The MIP I own still pays well, so will add on weakness. I have seen new oil fields will come on line next year. There also is a con tango in the futures markets in oil. The Economist (I love this magazine, mind you) has sent out its end of year and 2020 preview. I'm reading now.
Buying very little right now.....maybe YAFFX. It seems to be dead in the water. Will not add to bonds 'til things hit 2% on the 10. I think it's a loser play before that. Still hearing overseas bonds and stocks. How will that work with U.S. and China slowing? The dollar has to fall.....will that happen?
Seems to me a lot of jibber from people who don't want you to sell.......just saying......
God bless
the Pudd
Comments
Thinking of adding the new Vanguard Core International fund to my taxable acct to gain managed largecap blend exposure overseas. (It's managed by Wellington)
Global Wellington is interesting too, but I don't want bonds these days.
also bought Michelin Tire bonds mature 2026s YTM 5.4% 382550BF7 few days ago
Fidelity Infrastructure Fund FNSTX.
I'm realling looking for a fund which scores highly on ESG and low on carbon. I already have Brown Advisory Sustainable Growth and am looking at the Parnassus lineup. Many tech funds qualify on ESG as well. Any other suggestions would be gratefully received.
iforno: I like Wellington......anything. Mainly, Wellsley.
johnN: Good job! I only drive on Michelins. They're on the GT also.
Gary: I also have FNSTX. Also look at FIFNX. It's also new.....I like it. Just saying.......
Hi Skeeter - Yeah, looks like a good AA fund with ETFs and Blackrock funds....I like it.
Me? I sold FSENX this week. It's just too volatile with Armco coming. It's a pump job, I believe.....just saying. Have added to ADEVX. The MLP----MLPFX is at a 52-week low and pays a great dividend......just saying....
God bless
the Pudd
@hank Looked at OQGAX - hope my selection does half as good!
Starting to move overseas particularly Asia and China and both stocks and bonds. Added both MPACX and MCHFX. Also, with the retrenchment in the POG/POS, it's a great time to buy your annual bullion coins and rounds. They make great Christmas presents for everyone, including yourself.
It's not looking like things are going to end well politically. It's appearing as if the House will impeach and the Senate will acquit and the voters will decide in November. Fine. That's a given. What concerns me is how crazy things are going to get betwixt now and then, as 'there's many a slip between the leap and the saddle' as Flashman would say.
I sincerely pray for my country.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
Placed a new position for vanguard life-cycle 2040 fund and safeway bonds [cusip 786514BA6] YTM 6.6% today....
I have really been looking at RCTIX...really pondering that one.
Did some buying this week: BTBFX, BTMFX, FNSTX, YAFFX, PGTAX and added a new position FEMKX......my thinking is we go higher.
God bless
the Pudd
FWIW I also think the US market will go higher in the next 2-3 years and probably for the entire 2020s. Much, much higher. We will look back and be amazed.
Yes, I have looked at JAGTX. It's a good fund. You will do well in it. I am looking to Asia/China. It's where the future is, in my belief. Stimulus.......G5, richer middle class. It is ⅓ Asia where I want to be. So I say look where the fund is....not the returns. It's small millions....not billions. High turnover again. What I want is mad money. High risk.....it's not a keeper. Since I'm dealing with Fido, no loads. As far as going higher, yes, I'm with you. We will go to 0 interest rates and QE before this bull ends .....JMO. Buy now or cry later. Right now, debt does not matter. 'Til it does, cheaper for longer 'till it ends.
God bless
the Pudd
So, is China nothing....but just like 15 years ago? Would you say cars from 15 years ago are the same today? Move on, bro. You're behind. If it's not all that, then why is our government so worried?
God bless
the Pudd
ADDED to these funds this week: AEDVX, FEMKX, FIFNX, FSDAX, YAFFX, and PGTAX. I'm going to wait a while to get some coverage before adding more. So much for the technical crap. Now I'm going to wander, so some of you might want to stop reading here........
On our walks, the Dukester and I have been discussing oil: how it has gone up and how dumb the Pudd was 2 weeks ago selling FSENX. Even though I still hold MLPFX, which has done very well. Also like the div'ys. Still not good enough for the 4-legged one. We also discussed China. He says this is a big deal......will reignite world GDP by spring. I say right.....he says watch oil and copper. He says China trade with Asia is the most important for China, not U.S. So all's good. They are stimulating as well as U.S. This is good, he says, and it's a go into spring. Well, anyway, that's what the furry one says. Me? Party on, boys! We go higher.
God bless
the Pudd
The concern about China is that they are more than a low cost manufacturer for consumer products. China is on the path taken by Japan (after WWII) and South Korea (in the 90's) to develop their high tech manufacturing capabilities. They want to move up the value chain and to produce high value products on par with western countries. The fight for G5 infrastructures across the globe is a good example. In my opinion China is progressing on a rapid pace and there is still a way to go in many areas.
Andy Foster of Seafarer funds have several thoughtful annual reports on investing in China.
https://seafarerfunds.com/letters-to-shareholders/2018/10/semi-annual/
PGTAX + 47% YTD
FSDAX +34% YTD
FEMKX +33% YTD
Perhaps observing old blacksmith’s idiom - Strike while the iron is hot ... ?
Wow! Did not look at returns.....and, you're right. Saying that, here's what I see:
PGTAX - 5G all across Asia......now, more to come next year. China stimulating.....helping tech. The want to be No. 1.
FSDAX - have owned it for years. Added many times. It's worked out well. See no difference now. New U.S. military budget out.....no surprise it increased. But bought this last time because of Boeing.
FEMKX - Central banks across the world are all cutting. If I remember, there were 60 rate cuts this year. So next year, they should really kick in as it takes 6 to 9 months to show up.
SO, those are my reasons for what they're worth. Also, did you see WealthTrack this weekend? Ed Hyman was on. He said a lot of good things that I agree with.
God bless
the Pudd
p.s. SVEN + 1
All I'm saying is people have been predicting Asia (edit: China in particular) taking over the economic world for decades. Nothing new today. Things are different? That was said then too so lets wait and see. Asia was a huge topic on the FundAlarm board in the late 90s' early 2000s'. Even had it's own daily updated post. I'll ask you this, if hypothetically you could only invest in Asia or the US right now and have to keep the money there for the next 20 years, which would you choose? I guess that would be the answer to really believing the hype that Asia is the future, because of course that would imply the US is not. In my opinion, that's not happening in my life time.
With respect to investing in China, I pay skillful manager to navigating the trouble water. China has all the potential to be the next Japan if they can execute them properly (and that is a tall order). Also they are lagging the west in several key technical areas: semiconductors (telecommunication), biotech (advance medicine and drugs), software (operating systems and AI), and hardware for robotic manufacturing. Lately they are buying foreign assets in order to leapfrog the technology gaps they have. Question is, will that be enough for their large talent pool to compete with the west? In addition, will their middle class grow fast enough to support their own goods produce locally without depending on the export business?
In the future, I believe China will become even more dominant and competitive with the west on many fronts. As to your question, I will invest with China in a measured way, i.e. small allocation and with skillful managers. At present, there is too much political friction between these two countries and there is a long path to resolve the differences if that is even feasible.