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A $3-trillion tsunami is about to flood the stock market, warn FA manager
"Will Nasgovitz, who oversees about $1.3 billion in assets as the chief executive of Heartland Advisors, isn’t calling for a “full blown financial crisis,” but, with trillions in corporate debt coming due in the coming years, the industry veteran’s not exactly predicting smooth sailing in the stock market, either."
eventually a crash will occur ...the 3 trillion dollars ?! Answer is when
Maturities are set to rise above $1 trillion annually in 2021 and 2022, up from $721 billion in 2019. While this is a substantial amount of debt, credit markets in the U.S. have shown sufficient depth and demand for corporate credit to facilitate companies' issuance of new debt to manage pending maturities. ...
While the maturity wall steepens as debt mounts in 2021 and 2022, we expect that companies will issue new debt between now and then, and that the amount of debt maturing in those years will decline in the intervening years.
It's a solid 17 page report, covering different grades of bonds, financial and non-financial corporate. If the subject is of interest, this is a good place to start.
Record corporate debt being a market timebomb has received a lot of attention recently from the likes of Gundlach and other bond market mavens. We heard about it a lot last year too. Actually have been hearing about the maturity wall since around 2011 or so. That maturity wall they have been saying will cause stocks and lower rated bonds to come crashing down. So you would think the would the last place you would want to be would be the junk bond market. But at least for now you would be dead wrong as junk bonds have been hitting all time highs almost daily the past week. I would think the major stock market indexes will eventually follow junk bonds to all time highs sooner than later.
Reminds me of 2009, when junk was rebounding and the pundits were saying that we would hit walls of ARM resets, and the credit markets would collapse again, like 2008.
Comments
https://www.twincities.com/2008/01/29/heartland-advisors-agrees-to-3-5-million-settlement-of-sec-suit/
https://www.nytimes.com/2001/03/23/business/sec-freezes-the-assets-of-three-heartland-funds.html
Some corporations have their act together a bit better than Heartland (which got out of the bond fund business around 2003). Here's S&P's report from six months ago entitled U.S. Refinancing Study--$4.88 Trillion Of Rated Corporate Debt Is Scheduled To Mature Through 2023
https://www.allnews.ch/sites/default/files/files/20180822_SP_US-Refinancing-Study-Rated-Corporate-Debt.pdf It's a solid 17 page report, covering different grades of bonds, financial and non-financial corporate. If the subject is of interest, this is a good place to start.