Hi Junkster, this is a continuation of our discussion.
My last post had a link to NYSE up/down volume. I don't know how to save charts on this site but here it is
If you don't mind supply links to support Zweig claims, just like I did..
Junkster: In fairness to Zweig his signal was based on two 9 to 1 days within 3 months. He noted in his book the failure of singular 9 to 1 days. More importantly it is also based on NYSE advance/decline volume and not the [email protected]
- a huge and significant difference. This latest signal meets the criteria so we shall see if it has any accuracy. The point is BOTH of his momentum indicators came into play at the same time- a rarity. If this fails I would put much less emphasis on his indicators.
Edit. To quote myself on indicators. “ They should never be used as precise, absolute, black and white trading signals. Indicators are best used as clues or hints to future price action. Thus interpreting indicators is more art than a science........ What counts in trading is what the market is saying, not the indicators”
FD1000: There's is a small difference in principle between NYSE to SP500.
We had it twice or more in 2009, 2010, 2011 and didn't have it 2012-2019. This means that if you waited for the signal of 2 days within 3 months it never came.
Basically, the facts still stand, you get 1 and more every time the SP500 goes down over 10%...chart
...and it's reasonable. After a 10% correction, you will get days of huge up/down volume.
So, a rule of thumb might be, every time the SP500 goes down more than 10% rebalance...or...even simpler, every time your stocks to bond is 5% off sync --> rebalance.
For my trades I look for indicators that tell me on a specific day when to buy and MACD is pretty accurate.