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last one (I promise)-buying EM

I am also wondering what people thoughts are about buying EM funds right now (I own both Seafarer Growth/income and Value funds). This is based on GMO recommendations (same GMO folks who were wrong about seeing a bubble when S&P reached 1500 a while back) and Research Affiliates (Rob Arnott). According to Mr. Foster (who I believe is a genuine person), one should be investing in China if one has a 20 year investment window. In addition, Mr. Foster recommends buying more if a China downturn takes place. At this point, everyone and their mother is aware of China's debt issues. Also I may have read somewhere that Munger (who is in his 90s) is overweight EM. I realize issues with currency risk,... but I am a fan of buying assets when they are on sale. Wondering if others are pursuing this strategy (Mr. Bogle is probably not with his US focus).


  • I believe America will face a recession within 1-2 year and it wiil be severe one after 10 years of bull market. Based on previous experience EM and China will not be doing well at that time. It makes sense to postpone buying EM till after the recession.
  • edited November 2018
    Hi @ET91: I've been thinking of adding a touch of American Funds Developing World Growth & Income Fund (DWGAX) and pair it with their New World Fund (NEWFX) ... but, for now, I'm holding off for reasons stated above by @DavidV. I'm just not headed towards emering markets at the moment. I've got a few global hybrid type funds and following their positioning I've discovered most of them have been trimming back their emerging market exposure. But, as they trim somebody has to be buying.
  • "somebody has to be buying"

    @ET91- Adding to Old Skeet's observation, remember that there are a lot of different scenarios out there regarding what may be appropriate for one person (or entity) at any given point in time. Whoever is presently buying may be in a position favorable to long-term accumulation of this particular asset at this particular time, but that situation is surely not applicable to all potential buyers. Any given purchase decision is (or certainly should be) influenced by factors specific to each buyers individual situation.

  • Unless your guessing what will happen, I would own a small 5% or less of diversified fund, mostly china holdings. Will turn out correct eventually.
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