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Open Thread: Holiday Edition. What are you buying/selling/pondering?
Finally gave up on ARIVX...it wasn't so much the cash stake, but the precious metals bets. Thanks to expatsp who highlighted this earlier in the week.
Swapped this for more BERIX....also established a foothold in RSIVX. By year end, my equity positions will be complete as I add to and complete the allotments for YAFFX, FPACX, and ARTGX. This is a shift of a slug of cash into equities, putting me in my ideal position (for me) of about a 67% equity position leading into what I hope is my year of retirement...maybe.
Sold some equities and bought: 1). Added to River Park Strategic Income 2). Added to Osterweis Strategic Income 3). Added to peer to peer lending funds 4). Initiating a position in gold miners via GDX
Only tax-loss harvesting in core account to balance the massive distributions this year and so sold a lot of fixed income, commodities and emerging markets. Will get back into balance after 30 days.
In the play money account with leveraged funds, UWM and SCO have been stopped out. Still holding QLD and SSO. Recent new positions - short Yen (YCS) and short Treasuries (TBT). Almost ready to go long oil (UCO) whose technicals have become excellent.
Reply to @Hrux: I like the contrarian nature of these moves. I don't think miners will move contrary to a general market fall but I agree they are cheap and you have achieved better pricing than Mr. Cinnamond (ARIVX) who was too early. In his defense, its difficult running a value oriented small cap fund these days.
Reply to @PRESSmUP: For a manager of others monies, "too early" leads to redemptions. It's a constant job hazard. You run your valuation metrics, you make a decision, and the position goes against you. That's what you are paid for and sometimes you are wrong. There aren't any perfect money managers. I know I've made a ton of mistakes in my career so with Cinnamond I can readily sympathize.
Reply to @MarkM: Mark...I tend to give a manager quite a bit of leeway...as an example, I've given Berkowitz a wide berth at FAIRX, and he has made me a great deal of money over the years.
Cinnamond was not only "early" on metals, he was also "early" on abandoning equities during the best rally in decades.
Until recently, I gave him a pass given his performance in 2011, but he's just trying my patience, and so I moved on.
Reply to @PRESSmUP: I understand. He has underperformed not only the index but his peers as well. But, in his defense, valuations in the RU2000 are obscene. The worst I have ever seen. And I have been in the markets since 1978. If you are a value manager of his stripe, you will very badly lag this market. Not giving you advice you understand. Just pointing out the reason he is lagging so badly. He has very strict measures for investing. When the market turns, he will outperform. By definition.
Added to my local utility, bought a couple of miners for sh*ts and giggles, pretty much all in for the season. Loaded up around turkey day. Did buy both FB TWTR and they're both doing very well. Right now it's good.
Sold my muni ETF for a tax loss. rats. Tax losses are like kissing your sister. Beats stomping baby chickens, but it's a poor substitute for profits.
Planning on taking a bit from Aberdeen Emerging Markets ABEMX and buying some Wasatch International WAIGX which has about 80% small and mid cap stocks. This is a piece I was missing. This will be a relatively small position, and will still hold ABEMX and ODVYX, will add back to ABEMX in a while.
Exited energy (APA, HES, and CLD), but remain bullish longer term. Just spooked by falling oil, high CAPX, and short-term pull-backs. Looking for opportunity to get back in. And I hate going against the Great One.
Tried several times to get into HCP, but did not hit limit...close, but not yet.
Have eye on CHE, especially if vindicated from lawsuits.
Charles, CHE puzzles me. Roto-Rooter and palliative care seem an unusal combination. Sewer lines will plug and people will die, but the PE is 18 and the dividend is 1.1. What do you see that the market doesn't? Also in the three funds, which might worry the cognoscenti.
Vert, Hard to argue with any Artisan fund choice. I'm fairly heavy in RSIVX (can't be wrong all the time). Guess it depends on whether Sherman can deliver the promised return. If he can, it looks like the bond fund of choice.
I'm in favor of sewers and connector lines. They serve a major public health need.
I'm in favor of hospices run by charitable organizations. I don't think people "hate" them, although they do hate the diseases that require them. BUT, when there are multiple hospices in a particular region, it is not due to the milk of human kindness, but to avarice. They are well funded by the tax-payers, and they can be very profitable. They receive a daily fee for the services they provide, and the recipients of these services do not receive usual Medicare benefits for the disease justifying hospice care. (It's complicated, since you can receive benefits for other non-hospice-related illnesses.) The hospice is supposed to provide all care related to the illness for which you entered hospice care, including inpatient management of intolerable symptoms. The inpatient care is much more costly. Surprisingly, some hospice programs "discharge" their cleints when they request aggressive inpatient management of their symptoms, which might require more costly care! (While this is somewhat off topic, it serves my pupose as an illustration.) Several years ago, over a decade past, there was a home health agency (LAB) in St. Louis funded by local St. Louis Blues hockey players. It was profitable (at least I assume the accountants who initiated it presumed it would be); it was paid for by the tax payers; and it rendered care probably as good as the long-existing Visiting Nurses Association, a non-profit organization. The LAB representatives (attractive females, generally) visited local physicians frequently, in an effort to recruit more patients, which required the VNA to send representatives (less attractive females, generally, since they were often experienced nurses) also in an effort to preserve their market share, since they had to pay their personnel to provide the care they had provided for several years. LAB is now defunct, and I don't know if the hockey pros came out ahead or not, but we all paid the bill.
Health care fraud is rampant (and much of it is not physician initiated), and hospice care is only one of the sources. I can not ethically invest in a for profit hospice company, since it automatically presumes that resources are diverted to the stockholders that could go to patient comfort.
Reply to @Charles: Unfortunately, my Govt colleagues read that dictionary. Too bad we don't have super smart people like you training them! (That's meant as a big compliment)
Sorry, Charles, but health care generally is a zero sum game. When stockholders gain, policyholders or patients lose. I hear emerging markets might be due for for some (long-term) gains. (At least that's where the world tilts - they do have the younger population .)
Comments
Finally gave up on ARIVX...it wasn't so much the cash stake, but the precious metals bets. Thanks to expatsp who highlighted this earlier in the week.
Swapped this for more BERIX....also established a foothold in RSIVX. By year end, my equity positions will be complete as I add to and complete the allotments for YAFFX, FPACX, and ARTGX. This is a shift of a slug of cash into equities, putting me in my ideal position (for me) of about a 67% equity position leading into what I hope is my year of retirement...maybe.
PRESS
1). Added to River Park Strategic Income
2). Added to Osterweis Strategic Income
3). Added to peer to peer lending funds
4). Initiating a position in gold miners via GDX
Be careful out there. This market is frothy.
Lol. Buy what's hated and sell what's loved. Miners are awfully cheap. Does not mean they cannot continue to be over sold
In the play money account with leveraged funds, UWM and SCO have been stopped out. Still holding QLD and SSO. Recent new positions - short Yen (YCS) and short Treasuries (TBT). Almost ready to go long oil (UCO) whose technicals have become excellent.
Cinnamond was not only "early" on metals, he was also "early" on abandoning equities during the best rally in decades.
Until recently, I gave him a pass given his performance in 2011, but he's just trying my patience, and so I moved on.
Cheers and Merry Christmas.
Press
Added to my local utility, bought a couple of miners for sh*ts and giggles, pretty much all in for the season. Loaded up around turkey day. Did buy both FB TWTR and they're both doing very well. Right now it's good.
Sold my muni ETF for a tax loss. rats. Tax losses are like kissing your sister. Beats stomping baby chickens, but it's a poor substitute for profits.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
And: SCHN, AA, SENEA, JBSS, BAC.
Exited energy (APA, HES, and CLD), but remain bullish longer term. Just spooked by falling oil, high CAPX, and short-term pull-backs. Looking for opportunity to get back in. And I hate going against the Great One.
Tried several times to get into HCP, but did not hit limit...close, but not yet.
Have eye on CHE, especially if vindicated from lawsuits.
CHE puzzles me. Roto-Rooter and palliative care seem an unusal combination.
Sewer lines will plug and people will die, but the PE is 18 and the dividend is 1.1. What do you see that the market doesn't?
Also in the three funds, which might worry the cognoscenti.
Vert,
Hard to argue with any Artisan fund choice. I'm fairly heavy in RSIVX (can't be wrong all the time). Guess it depends on whether Sherman can deliver the promised return. If he can, it looks like the bond fund of choice.
CHE uses mature and established cash flows from sewer biz to buy high margin hospice facilities.
Their price is currently under siege due to Medicare filing abuse lawsuit(s). But I see that as opportunity, if vindicated.
Charles,
In the dictionary under Medicare, first word is fraud.
WSJ actually did some good investigate work in the last few years on Medicare:
Senators Push to Open Database on Medicare
But then what do we expect with good Health Care funds going averaging in ballpark of 18% over last 20 years - Plenty of Willie Sutton types.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704013604576249090982504246
I'm in favor of hospices run by charitable organizations. I don't think people "hate" them, although they do hate the diseases that require them. BUT, when there are multiple hospices in a particular region, it is not due to the milk of human kindness, but to avarice. They are well funded by the tax-payers, and they can be very profitable. They receive a daily fee for the services they provide, and the recipients of these services do not receive usual Medicare benefits for the disease justifying hospice care. (It's complicated, since you can receive benefits for other non-hospice-related illnesses.) The hospice is supposed to provide all care related to the illness for which you entered hospice care, including inpatient management of intolerable symptoms. The inpatient care is much more costly. Surprisingly, some hospice programs "discharge" their cleints when they request aggressive inpatient management of their symptoms, which might require more costly care!
(While this is somewhat off topic, it serves my pupose as an illustration.) Several years ago, over a decade past, there was a home health agency (LAB) in St. Louis funded by local St. Louis Blues hockey players. It was profitable (at least I assume the accountants who initiated it presumed it would be); it was paid for by the tax payers; and it rendered care probably as good as the long-existing Visiting Nurses Association, a non-profit organization. The LAB representatives (attractive females, generally) visited local physicians frequently, in an effort to recruit more patients, which required the VNA to send representatives (less attractive females, generally, since they were often experienced nurses) also in an effort to preserve their market share, since they had to pay their personnel to provide the care they had provided for several years. LAB is now defunct, and I don't know if the hockey pros came out ahead or not, but we all paid the bill.
Health care fraud is rampant (and much of it is not physician initiated), and hospice care is only one of the sources. I can not ethically invest in a for profit hospice company, since it automatically presumes that resources are diverted to the stockholders that could go to patient comfort.
Should I not even mention the felonies by Columbia/HCA 1996 and its CEO who is now Gov?
Unfortunately, my Govt colleagues read that dictionary. Too bad we don't have super smart people like you training them! (That's meant as a big compliment)