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MikeM got his Santa rally. Market SPY up 2.5% for week on massive volume. (Thank you FOMC and Chairman Bernanke.) Now up 30.1% for year. Here are YTD plots and numbers through Friday:
Even US aggregate bonds AGG ended week up fractionally after couple distribution days:
Yes - Every year we dust off a wonderful Christmas album by "the great one" who was quite an orchestra conductor as well. I'm astounded at some of the gains this year.
Reply to @hank: Ha! Dear Hank. Congrats on DODGX! I am gonna owe Flack dinner out this year, since I moved most (and then all) of my heavy DODIX holding into DODGX in the spring. Plan to report on the differences due to implementing timing method here, when seems appropriate. Hope all is well.
hi Charles. Yup, I placed a small bet on the Christmas rally. I do it most years and it usually pays off at least a couple %. No guts though to make a bigger bet.
Charles, early in the year you said you were going to play a timing scheme with moving average. How has your method worked out so far this year? Or hasn't there been enough change in averages to make moves?
edit: just noticed your reply to Hank about your timing. good luck to you.
You posed an interesting question: How have the Sell in May crowd performed this unusually fine year?
It certainly appears that we’ll enjoy an equity return this year in the 30% range. Going back to 1928, that healthy a reward was only produced 16 (about 19 %) times.
Remember that the sell in May strategy typically proposes a return to the market at the beginning of September, a four month summer holiday.
Using SPY as a proxy for the entire equity market, through November, a full market participation generated a 29.14 % return. If the May vacation strategy participant returned on September 1, he has collected a 25.33 % return through November. If he joined the market at September’s end or delayed until October’s end, his rewards fell to the 21.52 % and the 16.18 % levels, respectively.
As a ballpark observation, the Sell in May tactic worked roughly as anticipated. Even in this exceptional return year, the equity SPY holding delivered a 3.03 % 4-month summer return. It’s not that the Sell in May crowd expects a negative return during the summer doldrums, just that they anticipate a greatly weakened return during the Wall Street’s professionals vacation period. That general trend happened again this season.
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Charles, early in the year you said you were going to play a timing scheme with moving average. How has your method worked out so far this year? Or hasn't there been enough change in averages to make moves?
edit: just noticed your reply to Hank about your timing. good luck to you.
Santa rally continuing this morning looks like on AAPL, spending and outlook news.
Hi Hank,
You posed an interesting question: How have the Sell in May crowd performed this unusually fine year?
It certainly appears that we’ll enjoy an equity return this year in the 30% range. Going back to 1928, that healthy a reward was only produced 16 (about 19 %) times.
Remember that the sell in May strategy typically proposes a return to the market at the beginning of September, a four month summer holiday.
Using SPY as a proxy for the entire equity market, through November, a full market participation generated a 29.14 % return. If the May vacation strategy participant returned on September 1, he has collected a 25.33 % return through November. If he joined the market at September’s end or delayed until October’s end, his rewards fell to the 21.52 % and the 16.18 % levels, respectively.
As a ballpark observation, the Sell in May tactic worked roughly as anticipated. Even in this exceptional return year, the equity SPY holding delivered a 3.03 % 4-month summer return. It’s not that the Sell in May crowd expects a negative return during the summer doldrums, just that they anticipate a greatly weakened return during the Wall Street’s professionals vacation period. That general trend happened again this season.
Best Wishes and Merry Christmas.
And Merry Christmas to you and yours. Regards, hank