Howdy,
WELL, it turns out that our vacation last week is more costly than expected (aside from the cost of the actual vacation); as we were not able to take any actions with our portfolio.
SO, as I have jabbered in the recent past, I will presume we will "buy" some portfolio insurance today in the nature of TIPS funds and perhaps some adds to PM funds.
YES, there have already been big runs in these sectors; and perhaps the funds wool is ready to be sheared. But, we all accept risk as part of the potential reward, yes? Maurice, as noted to you 10 days back or so; I presume you are still holding your Vanguard TIPS fund.
johnN replied to me (a post from a few days ago) regarding perhaps missing a buy point on Monday for some selected areas of consideration. This note reminded me of watching the markets from July, 2007 through June, 2008 and the hugh swings, especially in the fall/winter period of 2007. There were many potential buy points during this period, too. You may use the chart of your favor to look at this period for a better view of swings.
Any-hoo, just me 2 cents for now and thinking out loud with the keyboard.
MARKET CLOSE, Aug 10: Let us discover the greater fool theory. Threw some monies against the wall to find how well it will stick. Added to FSAGX, and revisited old friends; FINPX and APOIX. The Fido PM and TIPS buys are from cash, while the APOIX is a partial sell of DHOAX, which is a HY bond fund. I may have been out in the hot sun for too long. For you timers, these buys may be an indicator for a top in these sectors.....:):):)
LOGIC: Still think'in monies are gonna run to these directions, in spite of recent moves.
Take care,
Catch
Comments
good commentary. i would be VERY VERY CAREFUL. it will be CHOPPY out there for I think the next few weeks-months. don't know where the market is going but I think you'll do all right in 5-10 yrs
If one does not protect the monies each and every day; the value of compounding positive returns becomes diminished going forward and "do all right" in 5-10 years may ring hollow.
No 2.5 jobs or a job for this fella. They'll just have to bury me early. I've worked at something since age 8. I have paid my dues to the planet, the family and myself.
Take care,
Catch
I truely think that IF YOU CAN HOLD ON to the stuff you buy for at least 2-5 yrs, they could possibly a good buy now, since it's technically a new recession. We may have to wait for few more yrs for it to go back to 12K... I probably will look at more nice yield vehicles like AT&T/verizon, home depot, dividend ETFs could be on sale now
regards
Fund-wise if you want to bet on a fund that's done terribly this year but has a good past record, I like Janus Overseas (JAOSX.) I think fund-wise, alternative funds (managed futures, long-short, although it's tough to find a good long-short fund) are also appealing during this time period, as well.
Rumors, rumors......but still can cause short term problems, eh???
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/11/us-crisis-asia-exposure-idUSTRE77A1Q620110811
And fact, CME raised margin requirements on gold traders. I don't know the criteria for these actions, but could cause some rework by these folks.
Just a quick note.
Regards,
Catch
hi Scott, it's funny you state these. Young minds think alike. I do have a small portions in evep [mlp], thinking of buying more MOO or DBA. I do have jaosx janus overseas as long term holdings. My portfolio is heavily favored the commodities sectors, so if it drop I would feel the pain but hopefully it will be a soft landing
There's also some value stocks that could be explored, such as Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), which has done terribly recently and which I'm looking at. In terms of commodity futures funds, I do like RYLFX - Rydex Long-Short Commodities - as some diversification vs. simply long funds. Also, you can look at something like Nuveen Commodity Fund (CFD), which yields over 7%, pays a monthly dividend and is trading at a discount to NAV of 7.65% (according to the fund website, as of yesterday's close.)
The two foreign commodity trading houses - Glencore (GLCNF.PK) and Noble (NOBGF.PK) have been obliterated recently. I think Glencore is a little more interesting due to the farmland it owns/leases (from the website, "In Australia, Paraguay, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, Glencore farms 270,000 hectares of owned or leased land."), but Noble is also interesting. These are VERY volatile stocks - I owned Noble late last year/early this year, but sold it and may consider it again. I did pick up a little Glencore over the last week, but that's really an example of something I am just putting away and don't care about the short-term. If Noble continues down I will nibble a bit on that again. Both are interesting, unique sort of "alternative" commodity plays, but tremendously volatile. Both are not particularly expensive from a price standpoint - Noble is a little over $1 a share, while Glencore is just under $6. Both are things that I would not have as more than 1% of the portfolio, though. Glencore has a controversial past, but I really don't care much - that may be an issue with someone else (as the wikipedia page accurately notes, the company's history reads like a spy novel - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glencore) Another alternative commodity play remains Sprott Resources (SCPZF.PK.)
In terms of broad funds that have dropped severely, Janus Overseas (JAOSX) is one, and Ivy Asset Strategy (WASCX) and sister fund Ivy Asset New Opportunities (INOCX) are another pair of examples.
Edited: now discussion of no ban, but no futures for Italy. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/milan-bourse-says-will-not-resume-futures-trading-thursday-ftse-mib