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Gotta be after March, 2014; if even then. The Fed folks will want to gather all data they use to discover what became of consumer spending and employment numbers after the holiday period. Many smaller stories will likely be in place for any variety of actions the Fed may seek.
Whether it is Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar or some other time ... Old_Skeet has already retooled his portfolio's asset allocation. I have reduced my allocation in fixed income over the past couple of years form a high of 35% within my allocation to about 25%. Within the 25%, I am about 30% in short duration and multisector income funds and 70% in hybrid income consisting mostly of conserative allocation funds that kick off a good yield distribution. In addition, I have raised my allocation to cash form about 15% to 20%+ (and building as my ivestments make distributions). In addition, I have raised my allocation to alternatives and to some other funds that offer flexability within their asset allocation. No doubt, it is coming ... The question still remains ... When? I am thinking the Fed is still going to keep us guessing until it sits it's new chairperson.
You noted: " I am thinking the Fed is still going to keep us guessing."
Although the Fed has piles of data, including a lot that does not have public access until time periods later; they too are working on the "guessing" side of life. Aside from economic theory and some of the "if we do this, the result will likely be this" I suspect there remain the unknowns and reactions after the fact of an action put in place.
Morning Catch, I guess it is fair to say they are hunting with a scatter gun ... hoping what they do will find it's target. Casting a wide net so to speak. Here take some of old grandmother's tonic.
For a pretty good framing/summary of the Fed's considerations at this point, see here. Binya Applebaum, for those not familiar with him, is one of the best financial/econ reporters out there, imho: excellent ability to translate financial-ese and bureaucrat-ese into English without dumbing it down.
For me, a simple understanding of what they're thinking & doing, as background to go with a lot of other stuff, has a lot more value than the endless chatter on tapering alone.
Comments
"March until March"
Many smaller stories will likely be in place for any variety of actions the Fed may seek.
Good Investing,
Old_Skeet
You noted: " I am thinking the Fed is still going to keep us guessing."
Although the Fed has piles of data, including a lot that does not have public access until time periods later; they too are working on the "guessing" side of life. Aside from economic theory and some of the "if we do this, the result will likely be this" I suspect there remain the unknowns and reactions after the fact of an action put in place.
Regards,
Catch
Morning Catch, I guess it is fair to say they are hunting with a scatter gun ... hoping what they do will find it's target. Casting a wide net so to speak. Here take some of old grandmother's tonic.
Old_Skeet
For me, a simple understanding of what they're thinking & doing, as background to go with a lot of other stuff, has a lot more value than the endless chatter on tapering alone.