Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Food for thought. Nice job here relating various issues that drive the domestic bond market. Debt-to-GDP is one. Inflationary (or deflationary) expectations is another. Not specifically mentioned are the political tailwinds which can change rapidly and have profound effects on government spending. Also, investors always over-react in the near term as the author suggests. I get the feeling he put this out as "devil's advocate" for whatever reason - since his somewhat positive interest rate outlook flys in the face of most conventional wisdom, including here at MFO.
I sold my high yield fund a year ago on fears of a bubble in that sector and in bonds in general. Somewhat regrettably, I note that HY fund would have generated a much better return over that time than the floating rate fund I substituted for it. Currently hold a very small stake in a HY muni. My (perhaps incorrect) intuition tells me that sector s a tad bit safer than corporate HYs at this point. Mention this only because the author seems to think HY munis offer decent value.
PS: Thanks Ted. I searched Reuters looking for something worth posting today and found nil. Your ability to come up with worthwhile reading day after day continues to amaze. Regards
A decent news and blog source listing here. The links do rotate off the list; not unlike the FundAlarm posts that eventually fell off the list end into electronic nirvana.
Reply to @catch22: Hi Catch. Thanks - but my ability to scan and pick is pretty limited (not to mention time constraints). I check Reuters every week or so. Also, come across a lot from the NY Times which we subscribe to on the Kindle. Unfortunately, some of those are "more hat then cattle" - as I found out recently to my chagrin. Catch, I enjoy all of your posts and none can deny your fund boat rode the bond wave successfully for many years. Thanks for all you contributed back than. Yep - more winter up here thus far than we sometimes experience in an entire season. Take care. Best to you and yours.
Comments
I sold my high yield fund a year ago on fears of a bubble in that sector and in bonds in general. Somewhat regrettably, I note that HY fund would have generated a much better return over that time than the floating rate fund I substituted for it. Currently hold a very small stake in a HY muni. My (perhaps incorrect) intuition tells me that sector s a tad bit safer than corporate HYs at this point. Mention this only because the author seems to think HY munis offer decent value.
PS: Thanks Ted. I searched Reuters looking for something worth posting today and found nil. Your ability to come up with worthwhile reading day after day continues to amaze. Regards
A decent news and blog source listing here. The links do rotate off the list; not unlike the FundAlarm posts that eventually fell off the list end into electronic nirvana.
http://finviz.com/news.ashx
Already tired of the below normal winter temps here. The bright side is that the daylight hours length increases again in about one week.
Take care up there,
Catch