and just about all of the other fund aisles at the mutual fund store. I will not attempt to add to the many thought threads that I find at MFO; as we have returned from one week away from the grind, and have yet to begin to digest the news and events, although I have read through most of the posts.
We did not make any portfolio changes prior to our departure; and will take some time to review current holdings and market trends for the next few days.
As I recall, the alleged old Chinese proverb; "May you live in interesting times", always has a special place for we individual investors.
Tis after midnight and i probably should be hitting the pillow and not the keyboard, but a few notes first.
1. Apparently, the S&P rating service has become the most powerful voice in the world of money. Okay, place your next bet please...........
2. I noted the "turd pile" in a recent write and still find U.S. Treasury debt the most appealing of the global piles; from a global investor perspective.
3. I noted (the note is somewhere here at MFO) to "hank" a few weeks ago about the 10 year Treasury seeing 2.55% before finding 3.55%. This came to be (2.47% for a time) this past week from the tidbits of info I could find. I also suspect this yield may go lower this week.
4. I still feel the main concern is the lack of growth in the economy and to a lesser degree the debt problem; as related to the equity market sell down. Debt is indeed a problem, but the spring will have to be unwound very slowly; or more pain will follow.
5. I am concerned about losing an active and very large monetary segment of investors (boomers) and also those in place at this time with 401ks and related company plans from being in "the market"; IF there is another big sell-off. Two big monetary face slaps within a few years will take and keep many away from traditional investing for the remainder of their lives. Annuity salesfolks and related companies will continue to rejoice (investment tip...those companies...:).
6. I am at a crossroads on the fact of deflation (consumer spending in particular) and the remaining pushes to create work by the government, which may come to stagflation again.
7. As noted at FundAlarm in the past, the continuing concerns of many in DC to come to grips with reality of what has and still is taking place in so many areas of America.
8. For the 99% of the citizens who can not (education/knowledge) or will not (lazy/intimidated by investing) have had a clue or currently have a clue to any monetary and/or political event that may have a great impact upon them and their families; going forward.
I will place a MFO link here, if you choose to review our current holdings. The link commentary section is from a prior write.
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/index.php?p=/discussion/895/our-funds-boat-week-.03-ytd-5.84-wm-xray.....-7-30-11/p1NOTE: Futures are not very pretty at 1 am and gold is above $1700/oz. As Betty Davis noted, "Put on your seatbelts, its going to be a bumpy ride."
Many song titles and lyrics come to mind in light of recent events; but it is too late at night to continue.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch
Comments
5) This retired boomer figures that, for a working stiff, "as goes your country, goes you" so bumpy it will be. I warned the hubby yesterday that his "vast wealth" was fixing to take a hit. I'm quite conservatively invested but still have some in equities and most of our savings is dollar denominated. I moved some, not a lot, out of equities a few months ago. I guess I am in for the ride at this point.
7) I expect more of the same but at a higher pitch. In the end, something might be done but I doubt that it will be something to put our governance in order. It more likely will just be something to create talking point fodder for armchair couch potato entertainment.
Behind doors some of your leaders are cheering and patting each other on the back. Mission accomplished.
thanks for your sentimental inputs. Would you 'hit the panic' button yet? Do you have a plan B, looks like futures are way down, could be another day of panic, I would not be surprise if we loose > 500 pts today for Dows [2008 all over again?]
panic article
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pressing-All-the-Buttons-for-nytimes-1638573448.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=
across the globe, traders brace for downturns
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Across-Globe-Traders-Brace-nytimes-4137732313.html?x=0
" Would you 'hit the panic' button yet? Do you have a plan B?"
>>>>>No panic here, but this is based upon our current holdings. Although our large position percentage in HY/HI bond funds appears to be headed for a bigger hit today; at least at the time of this write.
Plan B.....hmmm. A retreat from the recent highs (July) in equity/HY/HI funds of 25% would shave about 12% away from our YTD returns, leaving a minus 8% for the year. I/we continue to review the moving averages of our funds, as well as the relative strength values of these funds. Our house does not want to have a negative year, but I suspect that our exposure will, at the very least; provide less of a face slap versus a larger portion of equity holdings. I have noted in Our Funds Boat writes previous, that we may have a 5-25% year. Right now, 5% would be acceptable, eh??? I have not written anything well defined, but Plan B is always to protect as much of our holdings as possible. Not unlike Lake Superior (visited for the 100th time on our recent vacation), this massive body of water may remain absolute calm and with a glassy surface for many days; but one does not want to be on the open water when a storm is in the forecast. Right now, the old funds pontoon boat is able to remain fairly stable during the current blow, but we are watching the "weather" with a focused eye.
Regards,
Catch
I reduced equity holdings in 2 accounts about 2 months ago & now wish I had done the same in the third ! The 3/rd account has some powder to burn & will look to put it to work in the future.
I hope you enjoyed your playtime!
Later, Derf
As our equity holdings are not too large at this time for our comfort level; we will hold them for now. The possibility, of course; does exist to sell down some or portions of some equity funds in an equity relief rally. At this time, any sell monies may move into the energy area; especially if crude moves down into the $75 to $65/barrel range. There will still be the need for this type of energy. Our biggest sector holdings of HY/HI bond funds bleed with the down moves of the equities market, just at a slower rate at this time. The one benefit of these holdings are the yields which offer some support to falling NAV values.
'Course, the big question for all of us; what is the direction of the markets? Were equities overpriced in July? Are they cheap today, or is the current market action an unwind to realistic equity levels? Who knows, eh? Perhaps the values are all programmed into the algo's of the machine trades and have little to do with "real".
Even if our holdings continue to have little holes from losses here and there; eventually too many small holes allow too much water to find its way into the "boat" and cause problems with performance and handling.
I have not presented much to you that lends to any directions. I suspect our house has as much head scratching taking place as other investors.
And yes, our playtime was very nice; and in spite of seeing the "news" reports periodically on tv and not having access to any secure online connections, I/we did enjoy our travels in the northern parts of Michigan. We did our share to stimulate the tourist and related economy's of Michigan. Many others were also doing the same, so there is money being spent. Whether the others are spending wisely or not, in other areas of their lives, one does not know.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch